College Football's Ever-Changing Landscape

In the digital age in which we live, conference realignment has gained major notoriety. Teams have switched conferences on and off since the beginning of college athletics, really.

However, only recently have college football enthusiasts begun discussing the idea of a new landscape.

Friends, brace yourselves. Here's my prediction on what will occur in the next 5-10 years.

Could more of this be on the way soon?
(Photo courtesy Business Insider)

First, a little background. The Atlantic Coast Conference recently announced a new TV deal with ESPN. The 14 full-time schools and faux-ACC member Notre Dame have granted their media rights to the conference through 2036. Along with the powers in the Big Ten and SEC, whose own networks are money-making machines (Big Ten Network and SEC Network), it appears those three conferences are set for a while. No one is leaving the ACC, Big Ten or SEC anytime soon.

That leaves us with the other two Power 5 conferences, the Pac-12 and Big 12. We start on the West Coast, where the Pac-12 has its own issues with its TV network. Many praised Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott when the conference unveiled the Pac-12 Network, but years later, the conference has yet to agree on distribution with certain providers and the cash flow is, how do you say, minimal.

It was reported last week that Big 12 school Kansas State, which has a third-tier media right to its "K-StateHD.TV" channel online, receives more revenue than UCLA does. This, of course, sparked rumors that UCLA would be a candidate to bolt and join the soon-to-be-expanding Big 12.

Yeah. No.

All that to say, it is my belief that the Big 12 will expand to 12 or 14 teams, as reported everywhere, until its media rights run out - or perhaps a few years before they do - in 2025. That also coincides with the end of the current deal for the College Football Playoff contract.

At first, I thought about taking the current Power 5 conferences plus Notre Dame, which would be 65 teams, and trying to come up with four super-conferences of 16 teams. I think that might be a little tight when you consider there are teams like BYU, Houston, Boise State, and a few others out of the Group of 5 conferences who could compete with the "big boys" in college football.

I've expanded my thought to include all the Power 5 teams, Notre Dame, and a few others. The four Super-Conferences (or the Super 4) would be either 18 or 20 teams, based mostly on the current structure of the conferences and geography, and would alleviate any scheduling concerns.

Teams would be split into 9- or 10-team divisions and play each team in their division. The two division winners would face off in a conference championship game, which would be a de facto quarterfinal round. The four conference winners advance to what is now known as the College Football Playoff, or a semifinal round, and so on.

If there are 18-team conferences, each team would play all eight teams from its division plus one rotating opponent from the opposite intraconference division. Teams would be required to play two teams from the other three Super 4 conferences and allowed to play one game of their choosing against a lesser football subdivision.

This would equal the 12-game schedule format currently in place, but add some excitement of non-conference matchups and force teams to play higher level games instead of three or four non-conference games against the Central Michigans and New Mexico States of the world.

With 20-teams in a conference, just add one more division game and scrap the two games against other conference opponents and require just one. Therefore, 10 conference games (nine in division, one non-division), one non-conference Super 4, and the remaining pick your own game.

Here's how I see these Super 4 conferences shaking out. Keep in mind, this is not perfect, but just a guess as to what the new structure could look like:

ACC
North Division

1. Boston College
2. Cincinnati*
3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame
5. Pittsburgh
6. Syracuse
7. Virginia
8. Virginia Tech
9. West Virginia*

South Division

1. Central Florida*
2. Clemson
3. Duke
4. Florida State
5. Georgia Tech
6. Miami
7. NC State
8. North Carolina
9. Wake Forest

SEC
East Division

1. Alabama
2. Auburn
3. Florida
4. Georgia
5. Kentucky
6. Memphis*
7. South Carolina
8. Tennessee
9. Vanderbilt

West Division

1. Arkansas
2. Houston*
3. LSU
4. Mississippi State
5. Missouri
6. Oklahoma*
7. Ole Miss
8. Texas A&M
9. TCU*

Big Ten
East Division

1. Illinois
2. Indiana
3. Maryland
4. Michigan
5. Michigan State
6. Ohio State
7. Penn State
8. Purdue
9. Rutgers

West Division

1. Illinois
2. Iowa
3. Iowa State*
4. Kansas*
5. Kansas State*
6. Minnesota
7. Nebraska
8. Northwestern
9. Wisconsin

Pacific Coast
East Division

1. Arizona
2. Arizona State
3. Baylor*
4. BYU*
5. Colorado
6. Oklahoma State*
7. Texas*
8. Texas Tech*
9. Utah

West Division

1. Boise State*
2. Cal
3. Oregon
4. Oregon State
5. Stanford
6. UCLA
7. USC
8. Washington
9. Washington State

*New to conference; could be replaced with a team below

Here are some other realignment candidates either to replace some on the list above or to be added if there are 20 teams in each conference:

1. Air Force
2. Army
3. Colorado State
4. Connecticut
5. East Carolina
6. Fresno State
7. Louisiana Tech
8. Marshall
9. Navy
10. Nevada
11. Northern Illinois
12. SMU
13. South Florida
14. Southern Miss
15. Temple
16. Tulane
17. Tulsa
18. Western Kentucky

If 16-team Super-Conferences result in the ideal number, there will be some teams left out in the cold. As it stands right now, there are a total of 64 teams in the Power 5 conferences - ACC (14), Big 12 (10), Big Ten (14), Pac-12 (12) and SEC (14). That'd be perfect to combine them and split into four 16-team conferences. However, that 64 does not include Notre Dame. The Irish will be included one way or another. As also mentioned, teams like BYU, Boise State, Houston, Cincinnati, etc., are going to want their fair share into the new major football conferences.

Friends, brace yourselves. Things are just heating up.

-BtW