Fiesta Bowl Prediction - Tigers vs. Buckeyes

No. 2 Clemson and No. 3 Ohio State square off in the
CFB Playoff Semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl.
(Photo courtesy CFB Playoff)

We are less than 24 hours from kickoff of the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl between No. 2 Clemson and No. 3 Ohio State. BENched took at look at the matchups of Clemson's defense vs. Ohio State's offense and the Tigers offense vs. the Buckeyes defense the past couple days.

Now, it's time to predict who wins the game.

These two teams have had eerily similar seasons, with several blowout wins mixed in with too many close calls. The Tigers last left University of Phoenix Stadium with an empty feeling in their stomachs. Dabo Swinney and his team want to atone for the loss in the national title game. Ohio State also played in Glendale last year, taking down Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. The Buckeyes hope they will leave Arizona with another 'W'. Either team that wins this one will head to Tampa with full confidence that it can win the national championship. So who will walk away victorious?

We noted that there is a virtual draw between the Tigers high-octane offense and the Buckeyes lockdown defense. Perhaps a big play here or there will be made on either side. But it appears if either team has an advantage somewhere it would be Clemson's defense.

Deshaun Watson will be the difference in the Fiesta Bowl.
(Photo courtesy Clemson Athletics)

Ohio State is going to force Clemson to stop the run. The Tigers big front welcomes that challenge. The Buckeyes are going to bust a couple big plays. It's happened all year to Clemson from Dalvin Cook to James Conner to Matt Dayes. There have been several busts and Curtis Samuel or Mike Weber will get loose.

But it won't happen all night. And Deshaun Watson and his offense are on a mission. Through his entire career, Watson has been at his best against the best. There is some unfinished business the Tigers want to close. With the best player on the field, Clemson gets it done.

Score Prediction: Clemson 34, Ohio State 27

Fiesta Bowl Preview: Clemson O vs. Ohio State D

Yesterday, BENched took a look at the matchup between the Clemson defense against the Ohio State offense. Today, we switch to the other side of the ball for both teams and take a look at the Tigers high-powered offense against the Buckeyes shut-down defense. (NOTE: Later this evening, BENched will provide a prediction for the game. Follow blogger Ben Whitehead on Twitter @thebenwhitehead)

Clemson Tigers Offense
Total Offense Rank: 12th
Total Yards Per Game: 505.7
Yards Per Play: 6.35
Rushing Offense Rank: 67th
Rushing Yards Per Game: 173.1
Passing Offense Rank: 7th
Passing Yards Per Game: 332.6
Scoring Offense Rank: 14th
Points Per Game: 40.2

Ohio State Buckeyes Defense
Total Defense Rank: 3rd
Total Yards Per Game: 282.3
Yards Per Play: 4.25
Rushing Defense Rank: 13th
Rushing Yards Per Game: 117.8
Passing Defense Rank: 5th
Passing Yards Per Game: 164.5
Scoring Defense Rank: 3rd
Points Per Game: 14.2

This is the juicy matchup of this game. There's little separation between how good Clemson's offense is and how dominant Ohio State's defense is. NFL Scouts salivate when these two units are on the field and they will get a chance to see them up close against each other.

Clemson does one thing extremely well while wanting to be highly successful in another area. The Tigers own the seven best pass offense in the country and have arguably the best set of skill players. Receivers Mike Williams and Artavis Scott receive a lot of the attention, but the Tigers are loaded at the wideout position with Deon Cain, Hunter Renfrow and Ray-Ray McCloud plus tight end Jordan Leggett.

Clemson fans are confident No. 4 won't let them down.
(Photo courtesy Associated Press)

It doesn't hurt that there's a two-time Heisman finalist throwing to that group. Deshaun Watson will go down as one of the best, if not the best, to ever don the Tiger Paw. Watson's game has transformed since last year. He is still a runner when he has to, but his numbers in the passing game have increased. He's scanning the field more pre-snap to see what the defense is doing. All season long, Clemson coaches along with Watson have uttered the phrase, "We're just taking what they're giving us." That's meant more short passes and more passes in general.

Watson is on pace to surpass his passing numbers from a season ago. He does have 15 interceptions, but he closed the season with 10 touchdowns to just two INTs in his final three games. For the season, Watson has completed nearly 68 percent of his passes for 3,914 yards with a Clemson record 37 touchdowns. Watson has two weapons at his disposal that he didn't have during last year's Playoff - Williams and Cain. Both missed for differing reasons, but both will be on the field in the Fiesta Bowl.

Last season, particularly down the stretch, Clemson relied on the legs of Watson and Wayne Gallman. Many pundits will argue that running the ball with Watson is what pushed Clemson to the National Championship Game last season. In four of the final six games, he rushed for over 100 yards, including three games where he had 20+ carries. This season, he's only gone over 15 carries twice - at FSU and vs. VT in the ACC Championship. Watson has yet to eclipse the 100-yard mark on the ground.

While Gallman hasn't been used as much in the game plan, the Tigers have made it a point to at least say he is an integral part of the plan - but teams have forced Watson into changing calls at the line. Still, Gallman has over 1,000 yards on the ground. He's only the sixth back in program history to go over 3,000 yards in his career. The offense simply hasn't been put on his back this season. It goes through the air.

And that's what Ohio State wants. The Buckeyes boast an elite secondary that has been a nightmare for the Big Ten. Led by All-American safety Malik Hooker, Ohio State is second in the country in defensive touchdowns behind only Alabama. The Buckeyes have forced 25 turnovers, 19 of which have been interceptions.

At the center of it all for the Buckeyes defense is All-American Malik Hooker.
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)

Hooker might be the household name, but the Bucks are deep at the cornerback spot. Gareon Conley, Denzel Ward and Marshon Lattimore have locked down opposing team's deep threats. Hooker and Damon Webb keep the middle of the field a scary place for QBs to throw. The duo has also kept running backs at bay, not giving them space to break a long run with their length and ability to cover sideline to sideline.

Defensive coordinator Greg Schiano uses a press quarters defense. It's essentially a man defense, but allows for free roaming by the defender in each quarter of the field. Cornerbacks are on an island when the Buckeyes blitz. But Schiano trusts his guys and its worked. Ohio State is 10th in the country in third down defense. Getting off the field against the Tigers will be key.

Clemson's spread offense will force OSU linebackers Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker to cover receivers more than they have all season. That could open up the running game if the backers are spread out or being pulled away from the box.

We're not discounting the front seven for Ohio State nor the offensive line for Clemson. But this battle will be won on the outside. If Clemson can find success through the air, the Tigers will have the upper hand. If Ohio State limits Watson and Co., the Buckeyes will force Clemson out of its comfort zone.

There are two trains of thought here. One, Clemson has not seen a defense quite like this one all season. If there's any comparison, it might be Auburn. But that game was so long ago and such a different game having been the season opener when both teams were still figuring things out.

The other is Ohio State hasn't played an offense as dynamic and with the skill players like Clemson. Ohio State limited Oklahoma in Week 3, but again that feels like forever ago and the Sooners hadn't hit their stride.

Clemson fans will relax a little knowing Watson is on their side. Buckeye Nation will feel good about the relentless pressure with which OSU plays. Neither truly knows what to expect, though, because this is the best matchup this season for both units. That's why we're calling this a draw.

Advantage: Even

-BtW

Fiesta Bowl Preview: Clemson D vs. Ohio State O

In just two days, the No. 2 Clemson Tigers will square off against the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz. This is the second semifinal game of the 2016 College Football Playoff. The winner will advance to Tampa for the National Championship against the winner of the Peach Bowl between No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Washington.

Today, BENched takes a look at the matchup between the Clemson defense and the Ohio State offense. Tomorrow, we'll break down the Tigers O against the Buckeyes D, as well as provide the prediction for the game. Let's get started with a little tale of the tape.

Ohio State Buckeyes Offense
Total Offense Rank: 20th
Total Yards Per Game: 479.5
Yards Per Play: 6.15
Rushing Offense Rank: 9th
Rushing Yards Per Game: 258.3
Passing Offense Rank: 77th
Passing Yards Per Game: 221.2
Scoring Offense Rank: 9th
Points Per Game: 42.7

Clemson Tigers Defense
Total Defense Rank: 8th
Total Yards Per Game: 313.9
Yards Per Play: 4.61
Rushing Defense Rank: 22nd
Rushing Yards Per Game: 125.8
Passing Defense Rank: 19th
Passing Yards Per Game: 188.2
Scoring Defense Rank: 11th
Points Per Game: 18.4

We begin with Ohio State's offense and the man running it all J.T. Barrett. The junior signal-caller completed nearly 62 percent of his passes for 2,428 yards with 24 touchdowns and only five interceptions. As Buckeye coach Urban Meyer put it, "One thing you don't hear about our quarterbacks, 'They're gunslingers, they're risk takers.' That's not how we do that."

Meyer loves his power spread offense designed to be an option offense out of the spread and shotgun formation. It's predicated on running the football down a defenses throats to make them commit, then hitting play-action to open receivers and backs out of the backfield. Barrett was second on the team in rushing with 847 yards and tied with rushing leader Mike Weber with nine touchdowns. The big play threats include Weber and Curtis Samuel, the latter of whom was the only player in the nation to have over 700 yards rushing and receiving this season.

Ohio State's Curtis Samuel is one of the keys to the Buckeyes' spread attack.
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)

Samuel has been compared to Percy Harvin, a previous Meyer player from his days at Florida. The Buckeyes use Samuel in similar ways, giving him the ball on jet sweeps, dump passes, motioning him in and out of the backfield to create space for him to operate. His 15 touchdowns, 12.8 yards per catch and 7.7 yards per rush prove it's working.

If there's a weakness for the Buckeyes, it's their inability to pass block. Barrett was sacked 24 times this season, 19 of which have come in the latter half of the season against better Big Ten defenses (Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan accounted for 15 total sacks).

Christian Wilkins and the Clemson front seven will need to be
up to the challenge of slowing down OSU's rushing attack.
(Photo courtesy Associated Press)

That spells trouble against a Clemson defense that recorded 46 sacks and 112 tackles for loss, both good for third best in the nation. The Tigers are deep across the defensive front with Christian Wilkins, Carlos Watkins and ACC Rookie of the Year Dexter Lawrence anchoring the line. Wilkins is Clemson's do-it-all kinda guy. He's an interior lineman playing the end position, which started out of necessity when Austin Bryant was injured during preseason. Bryant is back and has added to the depth, but Wilkins has been a critical piece to the starting rotation.

The next level is where things get shaky. Linebackers Ben Boulware and Kendall Joseph have been tremendous in most areas, but downfield coverage is a weak spot. Ohio State could exploit this with some counters with Samuel (a la Dalvin Cook at FSU) and play-action calls. Going back to his days with Oklahoma, Brent Venables' defenses have been suspect defending those type of plays. But give credit where it's due to Venables, who won the Broyles Award as the nation's top assistant coach. He is one of the best in the country in scheming, particularly when given extra time and ample video evidence of a team's offense.

Clemson will need to key in on the run without its secondary getting sucked into the box. Safety Jadar Johnson and the entire secondary will need to rely on the gameplan and read their keys. If the Tigers get caught looking in the backfield, receivers like Samuel, Noah Brown or tight end Marcus Baugh could find themselves streaking down field. If so, this one could end up looking at lot like the National Championship Game from a season ago.

One final note on Ohio State: When the Buckeyes faced their toughest defensive opponents, they struggled mightily. Here is a list of the top defenses OSU faced and their point totals in those games:

• (2) Michigan - 30 in double OT (17 at end of regulation)
• (7) Wisconsin - 30 in OT (23 at end of regulation)
• (22) Nebraska - 62
• (23) Penn State - 21
• (34) Michigan State - 17

Nebraska was the clear exception, but the Huskers were depleted and spent by the time they traveled to Columbus. The other four games produced an average of 19.5 points per game in regulation. Clemson is No. 8 in total defense, comparable to Wisconsin. The Buckeyes didn't score a TD against the Badgers until three minutes to go in the third quarter. Against Michigan, OSU didn't score an offensive TD until 1:06 to play in the 3rd. If it takes that long for the Buckeyes to get in the end zone Saturday, the lead may be insurmountable. With the leadership, depth and experience Clemson has, it's tough to go against the Tigers here.

Advantage: Clemson

-BtW

PTW: Prediction Time Wednesday - Bowl Season

Bowl season is halfway over, meaning we've finally reached the good games. With 40 bowl games plus a National Championship, nearly two-thirds of the teams in college football are awarded a postseason trip. That's simply too many games and BENched doesn't have the time to break down matchups like 5-7 North Texas vs. 7-5 Army or Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Southern Miss.

Instead, BENched jumps on board with the bowl games beginning today. There are 20 games to pick, so buckle up!

2016 BENched PT Record

Final Week: 6-1
Game of the Week Pick: 6-4

Overall: 123-55 (.691 win %)

*Rankings below reflect the CFB Playoff Top 25

Wednesday, Dec. 28
Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx, N.Y.)
No. 23 Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern (Line: Pittsburgh -4.5)
Pitt has been one of college football's toughest outs this season. The Panthers own wins over No. 2 Clemson and No. 5 Penn State. Pitt's offense is dynamic, but will be without offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who is now the OC at LSU. Northwestern lost to the upper half of the Big Ten and beat the lower half. It began the season 0-2 with home losses to Western Michigan and FCS Illinois State. James Conner is due for a big day in the Big Apple to send him off in style. Panthers 45-12

Russell Athletic Bowl (Orlando, Fla.)
No. 16 West Virginia vs. Miami (Line: Miami -2.5)
West Virginia's only losses came to the top two teams in the Big 12 - Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Both were by double-digits, so it's difficult to say exactly how good this 10-2 Mountaineer team really is. Miami, on the other hand, had two four-game winning streaks sandwiched around a four-game losing streak. The Canes have plenty of talent, but are lacking in the consistency department. It's a good, old battle between former Big East foes and should come down to the wire. 'Neers 33-28

Foster Farms Bowl (Santa Clara, Calif.)
Indiana vs. No. 19 Utah (Line: Utah -5.5)
Despite making a bowl game, Indiana fired coach Kevin Wilson. That should make you leery enough. Add in a pretty good Utah team that knocked off USC and took both Washington and Colorado to the wire, it's a recipe for a bowl game blowout. Utes 52-20

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl (Houston, Texas)
Texas A&M vs. Kansas State (Line: Texas A&M -2.5)
The Aggies have a virtual home-field advantage playing at NRG Stadium in Houston. The atmosphere should be electric as both fan bases will fill it up as these two former Big 12 foes renew acquaintances. You never know when Bill Snyder's time will be up, but while he's still coaching with weeks to prepare for an opponent, old Bill has the edge. A&M should have a healthy Trevor Knight, but not sure that's enough. SnyderCats 31-27

Thursday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl (Birmingham, Ala.)
South Florida vs. South Carolina (Line: South Florida -10)
South Carolina closed the season 4-2 with a win over Tennessee to reach bowl eligibility. However, the Gamecocks were non-competitive in losses to Florida and Clemson. South Florida's quarterback Quintin Flowers might be the best kept secret in college football. His dual-threat ability will give Will Muschamp nightmares. Bulls 41-21

Belk Bowl (Charlotte, N.C.)
Arkansas vs. No. 22 Virginia Tech (Line: Virginia Tech -7)
The Hokies are coming off a hard-fought loss in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. Jerod Evans is one of two QBs to have 3,000+ yards passing, 25+ TDs, 500+ yards rushing and 10+ rushing TDs. The other to do that this season? Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. So yeah, Evans is pretty good and the VT offense runs through him. Arkansas struggled this year with uptempo offenses, but the Hogs can hang some points up themselves. A win for the Hokies would cap a tremendous first season by Justin Fuente in Blacksburg. Hokies 38-24

Valero Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, Texas)
No. 12 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Colorado (Line: Colorado -3)
Another game between a current Big 12 team and a former conference foe who left for seemingly greener pastures. Colorado is the country's biggest surprise. The blemishes for the Buffs were mostly due to losing quarterback Sefo Liufau against Michigan and Washington. Oklahoma State has two befuddling losses to Central Michigan and Baylor, but the QB-WR combo of Mason Rudolph and James Washington is dangerous downfield. The Pokes also found a decent running game with freshman Justice Hill and senior Chris Carson. It's a toss-up, but BENched is going with the coach-of-the-year Mike MacIntyre who has his team in a bowl game for the first time in 10 years. Buffs 28-27

Friday, Dec. 30
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (Memphis, Tenn.)
Georgia vs. TCU (Line: Pick 'em)
Can you figure these teams out? TCU, led by transfer quarterback Kenny Hill, could never find consistency, never winning more than two in a row and alternating wins and losses the last five games of the season. The Horned Frogs had a double-OT loss to Texas Tech at home, then beat Baylor on the road 62-22. The next three games were a 31-6 loss to Oklahoma State, a 31-9 win at Texas, and a 30-6 loss at home against K-State. Georgia was just as inconsistent with losses to Vandy and Georgia Tech at home, but a win over North Carolina to open the season and against Top 10 Auburn late in the year. No wonder it's a pick 'em. Georgia 24-23

Hyundai Sun Bowl (El Paso, Texas)
No. 18 Stanford vs. North Carolina (Line: Stanford -3)
Christian McCaffrey won't play in this game. Maybe that takes some shine off the Sun Bowl, but the matchup between the Cardinal and Tar Heels is a good one. Stanford came on strong after a slow start, scoring 41+ in each of its last three games and winning its final five in a row. North Carolina ended the season with a dud, falling to Duke and NC State in two of its final three games. The Heels were in line to possibly clinch a division title and reach 10 wins for the second straight season. How will Mitch Trubisky handle the Cardinal defense? The answer to that will provide the winner of this one. Trees 34-30

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (Nashville, Tenn.)
Nebraska vs. No. 21 Tennessee (Line: Tennessee -6.5)
The Vols were the most overrated team this season, entering with tons of hype and potential, but going just 4-4 in the SEC while playing the worst division in football (SEC East). Nebraska started 7-0, but was a bit of a fraud. The Huskers fell to Wisconsin in OT, then were shellacked by Ohio State 62-3 before the 30-point drubbing from Iowa. Both Tennessee and Nebraska fell flat against their rivals to close the season. Who will show up to end the year on a high note? Vols 28-23

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl (Tucson, Ariz.)
South Alabama vs. Air Force (Line: Air Force -13.5)
Like BENched said, there are too many bowl games. Look, we're glad the Air Force Academy gets to play in a bowl game, but a 9-3 Mountain West team against a 6-6 Sun Belt squad just doesn't get the meter going. Falcons 34-14

Capital One Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Florida State (Line: Michigan -7)
Ah, that's more like it. Florida State's offense faces a stiff test against the Wolverine D. Dalvin Cook against Jabrill Peppers is the matchup to watch. And it will be a fun one. But the Seminoles are looking to go out with a bang on defense as well. FSU's defensive line anchored by Demarcus Walker will cause havoc in the Michigan backfield. The first New Year's Six bowl should be an instant classic. Noles 30-27

Saturday, Dec. 31
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (Orlando, Fla.)
No. 20 LSU vs. No. 13 Louisville (Line: LSU -3)
Lamar Jackson will get his chance to put on a show against one of the nation's stingiest defenses. LSU hasn't faced a dynamic quarterback like Jackson this season, but the Tigers will be eager to shut him down. When Louisville faced tough defenses, especially down the stretch, the Cards folded. Will it be more of the same, or will the lack of Leonard Fournette give Louisville the upper hand? Cards 24-17

TaxSlayer Bowl (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky (Line: Georgia Tech -3.5)
Ground and pound, that'll be the name of this game. Georgia Tech's option offense against Kentucky's SEC best rushing attack. Which defense can stiffen up enough times to get off the field? Give the edge to the Yellow Jackets for senior quarterback Justin Thomas. But don't count out the Cats who just took down Heisman winner Lamar Jackson on his home field. Mark Stoops and Co. have had a month to break down the Jacket attack. But that also means Paul Johnson has had a month to be even more creative. Bees 35-30

CFB Playoff
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Atlanta, Ga.)
No. 4 Washington vs. No. 1 Alabama (Line: Alabama -14)
There's no questioning the consensus No. 1 team in the land this season. But there are question marks about the quality of competition Bama has played. Finally we'll get our answer. Washington brings an athletic bunch and a stout defense to the Tide's backyard. Chris Petersen has a history of bigtime calls in bigtime bowls. Don't expect too much too soon from the Huskies, but if it's a tight one late there could be some trickeration in the ATL. However, BENched doesn't think Washington is there yet. Rome wasn't built in a day and this Bama team is loaded with studs. There's also that guy Nick Saban on the sideline, who arguably has his best team ever. Tide 34-17

GAME OF THE WEEK
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Ariz.)
No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Clemson (Line: Ohio State -3)

Ohio State and Clemson meet in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
with the winner advancing to the National Championship.
(Photo courtesy CFB Playoff)

BENched will be providing an in-depth look at Clemson's Offense vs. Ohio State's Defense and the Tiger D vs. the Buckeye O over the next couple days. For now, we'll just say this: Ohio State's secondary is second to none, but the Buckeyes haven't seen the likes of Mike Williams, Deon Cain, Artavis Scott, Hunter Renfrow, Ray-Ray McCloud, etc. Deshaun Watson is also better than any QB the Buckeyes have faced and it ain't even close. On the flip side, Ohio State has more athleticism on the offensive side than Clemson has seen. Curtis Samuel and Mike Weber out of the backfield matched up with a linebacker and JT Barrett's legs could wear down the Tigers if they aren't able to get off the field. BENched thinks this might be the best bowl matchup in recent memory. Hold on to your hats for the prediction. That will come Friday night.

Monday, Jan. 2
Outback Bowl (Tampa, Fla.)
No. 17 Florida vs. Iowa (Line: Florida -3)
Florida's inept offense against Iowa's fickle self. The Gators won the SEC East, riding the defense all the way to Atlanta before being throttled by Alabama, 54-16. The most points Florida scored in its final six games was 24 in a win against Georgia. Iowa finished the season with three straight wins including the thriller over Michigan and a 40-10 blowout over rival Nebraska. But there were losses to North Dakota State and Northwestern along the way. Expect defense and not a lot of points. Gators 17-13

Goodyear Cotton Bowl (Arlington, Texas)
No. 15 Western Michigan vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (Line: Wisconsin -7.5)
What a fun one this should be (ROW THE BOAT!). Wisconsin might be the most unlucky team in terms of its close losses that could've turned its season into a magical one (ROW THE BOAT!). The Badgers have a seven-point loss at Michigan, a seven-point overtime loss to Ohio State, and blew a 21-point lead to lose by - you guessed it - seven to Penn State in the Big Ten title game (ROW THE BOAT!). Western Michigan turned in an impressive 13-0 season behind its infectiously optimistic coach PJ Fleck (ROW THE BOAT!). His catchphrases took America by storm and he always wants you to have an ELITE day (and to also ROW THE BOAT!). The talent gap between UW and WMU is sizable, though. Badgers 38-27

KEEP ROWING, THOUGH!!!

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual (Pasadena, Calif.)
No. 9 USC vs. No. 5 Penn State (Line: USC -6.5)
BENched isn't thrilled with the Committee's choice to move USC ahead of Colorado when the Buffaloes won the division and took a loss in the Pac-12 Championship. The way the Trojans finished the season, winning eight straight games, they are certainly deserving. But so were the Buffs. Aside from that, the Nittany Lions pulled off a miraculous season after starting 2-2 to win eight straight themselves. Penn State is a second half team, so the halftime score might not be an indication of how this game is going. PSU scored 38+ points in their final six games and were pretty salty on defense, too. USC scored 36+ in five of its final six, the lone exception a 26-13 win at Washington. It'll likely be a shootout in Pasadena. Trojans 45-35

Allstate Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, La.)
No. 14 Auburn vs. No. 7 Oklahoma (Line: Oklahoma -3)
At first glance, this appears to be a mismatch. A 10-2 Big 12 champion against a middling 8-4 SEC squad. Auburn dealt with injuries through much of the year, but should be healthy for the bowl game. Running backs Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway give the Tigers a two-headed monster in the backfield. Those two plus a healthy Sean White can put up points with the best of them. That's a dangerous thing for OU's feeble defense. The Sooners, though, boast two Heisman finalists in Baker Mayfield and Dede Westbrook. The star wide receiver ran wild in the Big 12 and provides a spark in the kicking game alongside Joe Mixon. OU is out to prove it can hang with some of college football's toughest teams after lacking the past few seasons against Clemson, Houston and Ohio State. The question is, will that be enough? Ponies and Wagons 37-35

-BtW

Having A Record Year

Deshaun Watson led Clemson to two-straight ACC titles.
That is among myriad other accomplishments by this Tiger team.
(Photo courtesy Clemson Athletics)

With all due respect to Eric Church, it's the Clemson football team that truly is having a record year.

In an effort to savor the moment and not take this time in Clemson football history for granted, I wanted to make a list of accomplishments for the current Tigers. This is not an all-encompassing list. I don't have every statistic featured. It's just some perspective on what we have witnessed with this group. It's a long list, so let's get to it.

• Clemson has been ranked in the Top 5 of the AP Poll 23 consecutive weeks. The Tigers are No. 3 in the current poll. The current streak includes the entire 2016 season, which has never been done before in program history. It also is the longest active in the NCAA. Alabama is second at 21 straight weeks. 
• Clemson has been ranked in the Top 25 for 35 straight weeks. That is good for the fourth best streak in school history. Clemson's longest streak is 50 weeks, accomplished twice (1989-1992 and 2011-2014). The Tigers were ranked 41 straight weeks from 1986-1989. The current streak began in 2014 and is tied for 121st all-time.
• The Tigers won their 16th ACC Championship, breaking a tie with Florida State for the most in the conference. It was the second straight championship for Clemson, the first time that's happened since a three-year run from 1986-88. Clemson has won three of the past six ACC titles after going 20 years between titles (1991 and 2011).
• Clemson has won 10+ games six consecutive years, tied with Alabama for the longest streak in the country. Prior to the streak starting, Clemson had not won 10 games in a season since 1990. Before these six seasons, Clemson had only seven season in its history with 10+ wins (1948, 1978, 1981, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990).
• The 12-1 record this year is only the third time in school history that Clemson has won 12 or more games. Clemson went 12-0 in 1981 en route to the program's only National Championship. Last season, the Tigers finished 14-1 with a loss in the National Championship Game.
• This season, Clemson played 11 bowl eligible teams and went 10-1. The 10 wins are the most in the nation and the most in Clemson history. 
• Clemson's senior class is 47-7. The 47 wins are a Clemson record for a senior class. Including two ACC Championship Game wins, the seniors have won 30 ACC games, also a school record.
• Deshaun Watson has thrown for 37 touchdowns, a school single-season record. As a team, Clemson has a school record 41 TD passes.
• Watson is 30-3 as a starter. The school record for wins by a QB is 32 held by Rodney Williams (1985-88) and Tajh Boyd (2010-13).
• Watson became the first player in ACC history to win back-to-back ACC Championship Game MVP awards. In two games, he's pass for 577 yards and six touchdowns, and rushed for 216 yards and four touchdowns. Clemson scored 87 points in the past two ACCCG's, with Watson's TDs accounting for 70 of those points.
• Watson became Clemson's first Heisman Trophy finalist in 2015. He will be in New York for a second consecutive year to become the first two-time Heisman finalist to don a Tiger uniform. If he wins, he of course would become the first Heisman winner in school history.
• Mike Williams' 1,171 yards marks the second season he's surpassed the 1,000-yard mark. Williams joins Rod Gardner and Sammy Watkins as the only receivers in Clemson history to reach 1,000 yards in two different seasons.
• Wayne Gallman is now over 1,000 yards rushing for the second straight season. Gallman has 3,298 rushing yards in his career and is just the sixth running back in Clemson history to surpass 3,000 yards.
• Jordan Leggett passed Dwayne Allen (2011) for the single-season receiving yardage record by a Clemson tight end. Leggett (637 yards) is the first Tiger tight end to post at least 600 receiving yards in a season.
• Leggett is tied with former Tiger wideout Terry Smith for sixth in Clemson history with 18 touchdown catches.
• Artavis Scott is tied with Sammy Watkins for the career receptions record at Clemson, putting him at 240 in just three seasons.
• Scott caught a pass in his 36th consecutive game, tying Jerry Butler and DeAndre Hopkins for the school record.
• True freshman Dexter Lawrence was named the ACC's Defensive Rookie of the Year.
• Clemson placed 16 players on the All-ACC team as voted on by the coaches, and 15 All-ACC players as voted by the media. There were eight Tigers on the coaches' first team and nine on the media first team, including three offensive linemen. Carlos Watkins, Ben Boulware, Cordrea Tankersley and Jadar Johnson were the Tigers' four first-team defensive players.
• Clemson has scored 522 points, an average of 40.2 points per game. Clemson's defense has given up 239 points, an 18.4 points per game clip.
• The Tiger defense has recorded a sack in 43 straight games. 
• Clemson has won four straight bowl games - not including the CFB National Championship last season. The Tigers defeated LSU in the 2012 Chick-fil-A Bowl, Ohio State in the 2014 Orange Bowl, Oklahoma in the 2014 Russell Athletic Bowl, and Oklahoma again in the 2015 Orange Bowl. The Tigers face Ohio State in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl. Clemson has never played in the Fiesta Bowl game.

Playoff set, Tigers duel with Buckeyes in the desert

With little drama, the CFB Playoff Committee released the 2016 version of the Top 4 teams in America. The two semifinal matchups are set, with No. 1 Alabama returning to the Georgia Dome to take on No. 4 Washington in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. And, No. 2 Clemson will battle No. 3 Ohio State in the Playstation Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz.

Alabama, winner of the SEC, finished the season 13-0 and with a 54-16 thumping of Florida in the conference championship game. The Tide are trying to become the first team in the Playoff era to win back-to-back national championships. Alabama is the only team to make the Playoff in each of the first three years.

The ACC Champion Clemson Tigers are back in the Playoff for a second straight season. Clemson has been ranked in the Top 4 of every Playoff poll the past two seasons. The Tigers are 12-1 after holding off Virginia Tech 42-35 to win the ACC. Clemson won 10 games against bowl eligible teams, the most in the nation.

Clemson will play in its second straight CFB Playoff against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.
(Photo courtesy Clemson Athletics)

Ohio State remained in the Top 4 despite not playing for a conference championship. The Buckeyes become the first team in the three seasons of the Playoff to accomplish that feat. Ohio State went 11-1 with only a three-point road loss to eventual Big Ten champion Penn State. 

The final Playoff spot went to Pac-12 Champion Washington. The reward? Traveling across the country to take on the Crimson Tide in their backyard. The Huskies finished 12-1 with a 41-10 win over Colorado to claim the Pac-12 title. Washington is having its best season in a quarter-decade, when the Huskies won the 1991 national championship.

Left out of the Playoff this year are Penn State (11-2 and the Big Ten champions) and Oklahoma (10-2 and the Big 12 champions). The Nittany Lions' and Sooners' two losses did them in. Penn State lost twice in September to Pitt and Michigan, the latter a 39-point blowout in Ann Arbor. Oklahoma also lost twice in September to Houston and Ohio State, the latter a 21-point drubbing on OU's home field. 

Michigan, which went 10-2, is also left on the outside looking in. The Wolverines closed the season with two road losses to Iowa and Ohio State in their final three games.

Here are the CFB Playoff and New Year's Six Bowls:

Playoff 

Dec. 31 

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State

I would not to have put Ohio State in over Penn State, but that is why the Committee was created: to bring subjectivity into the rankings. Penn State beat Ohio State at home by three points essentially on a returned blocked field goal. To me, those two teams are on equal footing. By using the tie-breakers, the Committee had to choose between a body of work (including the out-of-conference schedule) and a conference championship. Ultimately, the folks in the room went with the body of work. Ohio State beat Oklahoma in Norman by 21. Penn State lost to Pittsburgh at Pitt by three. Additionally, Penn State had a second loss, whereas Ohio State had just one.

When debating the final spot between Penn State and Washington, the edge went to Washington, probably again because of a two-loss team vs. a one-loss team. Both were conference champions. Washington had a weak non-conference schedule, but thoroughly dominated every team it played. Penn State won, but not convincingly enough.

Alabama is going to be a shoe-in for the National Championship, but don't count out the Huskies. Washington is much bigger and stronger up front that most people realize.

Clemson and Ohio State met recently in the 2014 Orange Bowl (2013 season), with the Tigers winning a 40-35 thriller. The two teams are far different from back then, and this matchup is worth watching. If Bama reaches the National Championship, either of these teams are built to dethrone the defending champs.

One final note, we figured Clemson would jump Ohio State by winning a conference championship. But why Washington didn't do the same is a little puzzling. Perhaps it comes down to overall résumés, but we've been told in the past that conference championships matter more. That didn't seem to be the case this year.

Gotta love the Playoff.

New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Florida State

Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl: No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 15 Western Michigan

Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 9 USC

Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Auburn

All of these matchups were pretty much predicted based on the last set of rankings. The Orange, Rose and Sugar all have tie-ins with conferences that required them to take either a conference champion or the next highest-rated team from that conference (if the champ is in the Playoff).

The Orange Bowl took Florida State as the next team from the ACC and Michigan as the next team from either the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame. Florida State leapt Louisville, despite the Cardinals 63-20 win over the Seminoles. FSU closed the season strong, while Louisville dropped two straight to Houston and Kentucky.

The Rose Bowl takes the Pac-12 and Big Ten. Since Penn State didn't make the Playoff, the Big Ten champs head west to Pasadena. The Rose then selected USC from the Pac-12 instead of Colorado. This one irks me because I feel like Colorado should be rewarded with the Rose Bowl for its tremendous season. USC won eight straight after a 1-3 start, but the Buffs won the Pac-12 South after not making a bowl.

The Sugar Bowl selects teams from the Big 12 and SEC. Oklahoma won the Big 12 and did not make the Playoff, thus the Sooners are headed to New Orleans. Auburn was rated the next highest SEC team all the way at No. 14. Auburn finished the season 8-4 with losses to Clemson, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama.

Western Michigan finished as the highest ranked Group of 5 champion to earn the at-large bid to the Cotton Bowl this season. The Broncos take on the next highest ranked team in the Playoff rankings, the Wisconsin Badgers.

BENched will have more Playoff and NY6 breakdowns as these games approach.

The Morning After... Back-to-back

A short and sweet TMA today, as the final ranking for the CFB Playoff will be announced at noon ET. BENched will have a reaction piece and a look ahead to the Playoff and New Year's Six bowls.

This guy is the best player in the nation.
As Dabo Swinney said, "... And it ain't even close."
(Photo courtesy Associated Press)

1) Earlier Saturday, I texted a good buddy of mine and said I had trouble sleeping because I kept having the thought that Clemson would lose to Virginia Tech. His response was simple, "Take a deep breath and remember we have #4." How could I be so silly? Deshaun Watson (that'd be the #4 he was talking about) is the best player in football. Period. He proved it again Saturday night on another big stage, claiming the ACC Championship for the second straight year and becoming the first player ever to win consecutive ACC Championship Game MVPs. He did so with 288 passing yards, 85 rushing yards and five touchdowns (three pass, two rush). Clemson fans have had the pleasure of watching DW4 for the last three years and if we ever doubt our Tigers, we should all keep in mind that he's on our side.

2) "All we need is an opportunity. Once we get an opportunity, we're going to take full advantage of it. ... We're going to go for that natty." Clemson is rolling into the Playoff and Watson's quote tells me the Tigers have had their eyes on this prize all year long. Now that the opportunity is here - or we assume it is - the rest of the country should look out. Clemson is coming.

3) Clemson has now scored 35+ points in six straight games. The Tigers have scored 30 or more in 10  of their 13 games. ... Clemson has won a record 16 ACC Championships, breaking a previous tie with Florida State. ... The back-to-back titles are the first for Clemson in 28 years (CU won three in a row from 1986-88). ... The win was Clemson's 10th over a bowl eligible team this season - the most in the nation. The Tigers played a record 11 bowl eligible teams, going 10-1. ... The Tigers' 12-1 record is tied for the second most wins in school history. In 1981, the Tigers finished 12-0 to win the National Championship. Clemson went 14-1 in 2015, falling short in the title game.

*BENched will produce more stats in another post later this week.

4) My hat is off to Virginia Tech. The Hokies are a fun club to watch. Jerod Evans is a talented quarterback and he has some really good weapons around him. He has some things to work on, but the Hokies are scary with him back there. Bud Foster is one of the best defensive minds in the business. There wasn't much he was going to do to slow down the Tiger train, but Foster dialed up some things that confused the heck out of the Clemson offense and disrupted its rhythm. Justin Fuente has ignited a fire in Blacksburg that is going to rage on for a while. Expect a lot of Clemson-VT and FSU-VT matchups in the ACCFCG in the near future.

5) Oklahoma won Bedlam in impressive fashion, 38-20. The Cowboys scored to go ahead 17-10 with 1:42 to go before halftime. The Sooners marched down the field and scored in 1:10 to tie the game. OSU returned the ensuing kickoff near midfield. The Pokes ran one play and did not call their final timeout, instead opting to go into halftime tied. OU dominated the second half 21-3. When the game was within 11, Mike Gundy called for a run play on 3rd and long to set up a field goal to cut it to an eight-point deficit. OSU missed the field goal and Sooner running back Joe Mixon went 79 yards on the next play to ice the game. Oklahoma now leads the Bedlam series 86-18-7 and is likely headed to the Sugar Bowl to face off against Auburn. Oklahoma State is likely going to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl against either Colorado or USC.

6) The only other conference championship game that was worth watching was the Big Ten, and even it looked like a blowout early. Wisconsin jumped all over Penn State, leading 28-7 late in the second quarter. If you read BENched, you knew this nugget: Penn State is a second half team. The Nittany Lions scored just before half to cut the lead to 28-14, then outscored the Badgers 24-3 in the second half. Penn State, a two-loss team, claimed the Big Ten Championship out of the East Division. That same division has Ohio State (which its only loss is to Penn State) and Michigan (which blew out PSU 49-10 way back in September). Are the Nittany Lions Rose Bowl bound or Playoff bound? Time will tell.

7) Washington crushed Colorado 41-10 Friday night to claim the Pac-12. The Huskies seem to be a lock for the Playoff at 12-1 with the conference title. But the Huskies are holding their breath, as their strength of schedule and many other metrics are not in their favor. ... Alabama throttled Florida 54-16 to win the SEC again and finish 13-0. Florida actually looked like it was going to be in the fight early, marching down the field and scoring to go up 7-0. Two interceptions - one a pick-six - and a blocked punt for a TD gave Bama a lead despite the Tide having minus-7 yards. They did not look back.

8) It's been a really fun year and I hope you've enjoyed delving into my brain each Sunday morning. BENched will have much more on the upcoming Heisman presentation, CFB Playoff, and other Clemson thoughts and reflections. Until then, enjoy your holiday season with friends and family. Go Tigers!

PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 14 (Championship Week)

Another month of football gone. Hard to believe we've reached the end of the college football season. Championship Week presents a whole new season in itself. Plenty is on the line for all the championship games - Playoff positioning, New Year's Six Bowls, bragging rights (in Bedlam). It's time to man up or shut up. As for BENched, we've had a good, not great, season of picks. Rivalry Week pulled a fast one with several upets. But we're in the championship phase. Just like these games, this is when it counts most.

2016 BENched PTF Record

Last Week: 10-10
Game of the Week Pick: 5-4

Overall: 117-54 (.684 win %)

*Rankings below reflect the CFB Playoff Top 25

Friday

MAC Championship (Ford Field in Detroit, Mich.)
Ohio vs. No. 17 Western Michigan (Line: Western Michigan -17)
On the verge of a 13-0 season, Western Michigan is staring a New Year's Six Bowl in the face. It's right there for the taking and all that stands in its way is Ohio, which has lost four games, but all have been decided by single digits. The Broncos, on the other hand, have had one game decided by single digits. In fact, it was a single-digit win (22-21) at Northwestern to start the season. No slowing down the boats. They can row right on down to the Cotton Bowl after this one. Boat Rowers 41-24

GAME OF THE WEEK
Pac-12 Championship (Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.)

Sefo Liufau has Colorado in position for one of the best
turnarounds in college football history.
(Photo courtesy Associated Press)

No. 8 Colorado vs. No. 4 Washington (Line: Washington -7.5)
Implications in this one are larger than the Pacific Ocean. Washington knows it must win the Pac-12 to be considered for the CFB Playoff. The Huskies have had a fantastic year, but despite the 11-1 record, they are just 1-1 against the current Top 25. Colorado can creep into the conversation by knocking off No. 4. The Buffaloes are the turnaround team of the year, led by Sefo Liufau. Colorado's defense may be the best the Huskies have faced, but UW's defense is far and away the best the Buffs have seen. Huskies 27-21

Saturday

AAC Championship (Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md.)
Temple at No. 19 Navy (Line: Navy -3)
Navy has a chance - albeit slim - to earn a New Year's Six berth. Ironically, Navy needs the boats to stop rowing and sink.  The Midshipmen need a Western Michigan loss and to beat Temple for that conversation to begin. If the Broncos win tonight, which BENched predicts, all Navy can play for is a conference championship. That'd be tremendous for our nation's Naval Academy. Middies 34-20

Big 12 Championship - Bedlam (Oklahoma leads 85-18-7)
No. 10 Oklahoma State at No. 9 Oklahoma (Line: Oklahoma -11)
One of the few regular season games remaining on the schedule, Bedlam figures to live up to its name. The Sooners and Cowboys will go toe-to-toe with the Big 12 title on the line for the fourth time in the last six years. Oklahoma has a dynamic offense that is unstoppable with Baker Mayfield leading the charge. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon are a great one-two punch in the backfield, but Dede Westbrook is a sensational wide receiver. Opposite OU is Oklahoma State's high-octane offense that has recently found a running game. Both defenses are, for lack of a better word, awful. This one will have points galore. Ponies and Wagons 55-45

SEC Championship (Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Ga.)
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 15 Florida (Line: Alabama -24)
Unlike the matchup above, defense won't be optional in the Georgia Dome. Alabama boasts the nation's best and Florida isn't far behind. Alabama didn't allow a touchdown in four games in November. Florida has no offense, so this one shouldn't be close. Tide 33-3

ACC Championship (Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla.)
No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 23 Virginia Tech (Line: Clemson -10)
Clemson has been on a tear since its loss to Pitt three weeks ago. Actually, the Tigers' offense has been on a tear since their Oct. 29 game at Florida State. In the fives game since, Clemson has scored 37, 54, 42, 35 and 56 points. Virginia Tech always has a tough defense with Bud Foster sailing that ship. And the Hokies' offense has seen an uptick with new head man Justin Fuente and quarterback Jerod Evans. But Clemson looks to be on a mission and VT won't be able to keep up the whole game. Tigers 41-17

Big Ten Championship (Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind.)
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 7 Penn State (Line: Wisconsin -3)
The storylines out of the Big Ten are numerous. Ohio State allegedly is a lock for the Playoff. Penn State, which beat Ohio State, could win the Big Ten and be left out of the Playoff. Wisconsin is most likely left out even if it wins. These scenarios are all barring what may or may not happen in other conferences, like the ACC and Pac-12. There's little arguing that the Big Ten is the best conference this season, but whether its champion slides into the Top 4 is a mystery. As for the game, Penn State is a second half team, so ignore whatever may happen in the first half. Wisconsin has a stout defense and will pose problems for the Nittany Lions. Expect this one to be close and low-scoring. Nittany Lions 16-9

-BtW