Thursday, December 29, 2016

Fiesta Bowl Preview: Clemson D vs. Ohio State O

In just two days, the No. 2 Clemson Tigers will square off against the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz. This is the second semifinal game of the 2016 College Football Playoff. The winner will advance to Tampa for the National Championship against the winner of the Peach Bowl between No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Washington.

Today, BENched takes a look at the matchup between the Clemson defense and the Ohio State offense. Tomorrow, we'll break down the Tigers O against the Buckeyes D, as well as provide the prediction for the game. Let's get started with a little tale of the tape.

Ohio State Buckeyes Offense
Total Offense Rank: 20th
Total Yards Per Game: 479.5
Yards Per Play: 6.15
Rushing Offense Rank: 9th
Rushing Yards Per Game: 258.3
Passing Offense Rank: 77th
Passing Yards Per Game: 221.2
Scoring Offense Rank: 9th
Points Per Game: 42.7

Clemson Tigers Defense
Total Defense Rank: 8th
Total Yards Per Game: 313.9
Yards Per Play: 4.61
Rushing Defense Rank: 22nd
Rushing Yards Per Game: 125.8
Passing Defense Rank: 19th
Passing Yards Per Game: 188.2
Scoring Defense Rank: 11th
Points Per Game: 18.4

We begin with Ohio State's offense and the man running it all J.T. Barrett. The junior signal-caller completed nearly 62 percent of his passes for 2,428 yards with 24 touchdowns and only five interceptions. As Buckeye coach Urban Meyer put it, "One thing you don't hear about our quarterbacks, 'They're gunslingers, they're risk takers.' That's not how we do that."

Meyer loves his power spread offense designed to be an option offense out of the spread and shotgun formation. It's predicated on running the football down a defenses throats to make them commit, then hitting play-action to open receivers and backs out of the backfield. Barrett was second on the team in rushing with 847 yards and tied with rushing leader Mike Weber with nine touchdowns. The big play threats include Weber and Curtis Samuel, the latter of whom was the only player in the nation to have over 700 yards rushing and receiving this season.
Ohio State's Curtis Samuel is one of the keys to the Buckeyes' spread attack.
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)
Samuel has been compared to Percy Harvin, a previous Meyer player from his days at Florida. The Buckeyes use Samuel in similar ways, giving him the ball on jet sweeps, dump passes, motioning him in and out of the backfield to create space for him to operate. His 15 touchdowns, 12.8 yards per catch and 7.7 yards per rush prove it's working.

If there's a weakness for the Buckeyes, it's their inability to pass block. Barrett was sacked 24 times this season, 19 of which have come in the latter half of the season against better Big Ten defenses (Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan accounted for 15 total sacks).

Christian Wilkins and the Clemson front seven will need to be
up to the challenge of slowing down OSU's rushing attack.
(Photo courtesy Associated Press)
That spells trouble against a Clemson defense that recorded 46 sacks and 112 tackles for loss, both good for third best in the nation. The Tigers are deep across the defensive front with Christian Wilkins, Carlos Watkins and ACC Rookie of the Year Dexter Lawrence anchoring the line. Wilkins is Clemson's do-it-all kinda guy. He's an interior lineman playing the end position, which started out of necessity when Austin Bryant was injured during preseason. Bryant is back and has added to the depth, but Wilkins has been a critical piece to the starting rotation.

The next level is where things get shaky. Linebackers Ben Boulware and Kendall Joseph have been tremendous in most areas, but downfield coverage is a weak spot. Ohio State could exploit this with some counters with Samuel (a la Dalvin Cook at FSU) and play-action calls. Going back to his days with Oklahoma, Brent Venables' defenses have been suspect defending those type of plays. But give credit where it's due to Venables, who won the Broyles Award as the nation's top assistant coach. He is one of the best in the country in scheming, particularly when given extra time and ample video evidence of a team's offense.

Clemson will need to key in on the run without its secondary getting sucked into the box. Safety Jadar Johnson and the entire secondary will need to rely on the gameplan and read their keys. If the Tigers get caught looking in the backfield, receivers like Samuel, Noah Brown or tight end Marcus Baugh could find themselves streaking down field. If so, this one could end up looking at lot like the National Championship Game from a season ago.

One final note on Ohio State: When the Buckeyes faced their toughest defensive opponents, they struggled mightily. Here is a list of the top defenses OSU faced and their point totals in those games:
  • (2) Michigan - 30 in double OT (17 at end of regulation)
  • (7) Wisconsin - 30 in OT (23 at end of regulation)
  • (22) Nebraska - 62
  • (23) Penn State - 21
  • (34) Michigan State - 17
Nebraska was the clear exception, but the Huskers were depleted and spent by the time they traveled to Columbus. The other four games produced an average of 19.5 points per game in regulation. Clemson is No. 8 in total defense, comparable to Wisconsin. The Buckeyes didn't score a TD against the Badgers until three minutes to go in the third quarter. Against Michigan, OSU didn't score an offensive TD until 1:06 to play in the 3rd. If it takes that long for the Buckeyes to get in the end zone Saturday, the lead may be insurmountable. With the leadership, depth and experience Clemson has, it's tough to go against the Tigers here.

Advantage: Clemson

-BtW

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