PTT: Prediction Time Thursday - Week 8

Past the midway point in the college football season, we are finding out where teams stand. Still some matchups to determine much of the landscape, so buckle up. This is the time of year when things get fun! Time to make some Clemson bye week picks, which means a few more games than normal.

2016 BENched PTF Record

Last Week: 5-4
Game of the Week Pick: 1-2

Overall: 57-28 (.671 win %)

*Rankings below reflect the AP Top 25

Thursday

Miami at Virginia Tech (Line: Virginia Tech -6)
A week ago, this looked like it could have been an epic ACC Coastal showdown. Now it's essentially an elimination game from the division race. The Hokies should get a boost from the return to a Thursday night game at Lane Stadium. Hokies 24-17

BYU at No. 14 Boise State (Line: Boise State -7)
The nightcap of the Thursday double-header is a classic Mountain Time rivalry. BYU and Boise have been battling to be the non-Power 5 leader for years. The two running backs in this game are studs. I'd take Boise State QB Brett Rypien over BYU's Taysom Hill right now. Slight edge to Boise on The Blue. Broncos 34-24

Friday

Oregon at Cal (Line: Cal -3)
The what-could-have-been game. These two teams have combined for five wins, with the Ducks falling from the sky and the Bears just meh. Oregon has no defense and is a loss away from Phil Knight picking up the phone to bring Chip Kelly back. *Ring ring*. Bears 47-30

Saturday

NC State at No. 7 Louisville (Line: Louisville -19.5)
BENched is still unsure how Kyle Bambard missed that kick. Huge chance for NC State to bounce back this week. Lamar Jackson needs to get back on track after a so-so performance last week against Duke. Cards 41-28

No. 10 Wisconsin at Iowa (Line: Wisconsin -3.5)
The Badgers have a pair of seven-point losses to the No. 2 and No. 3 teams in the land. Lucky for UW, those two teams are in the B1G East. Now they travel west to take on an underwhelming Iowa squad. Badgers 31-14

Texas at Kansas State (Line: Kansas State -2.5)
K-State owns Texas. For whatever reason, the purple 'Cats just know how to get it done against the Longhorns. So why go against that? Plus, a buddy of mine can't stand it when I don't pick Kansas State. This one's for you. Snydercats 27-24

Syracuse at Boston College (Line: Boston College -4.5)
Yes, you read that line right. The team that hasn't won an ACC game in its last 11 tries is the a 4.5-point favorite over a team that just beat Virginia Tech by 14. Something's up... Orange 35-17

No. 22 North Carolina at Virginia (Line: North Carolina -8.5)
Which Tar Heel team shows up this week - the one that got blown out at home by the Hokies or the one that did work at Miami? Either way, the winner of this game controls the Coastal Division. Yes, really, Virginia could be in control after Saturday. Heels 44-27

Colorado at Stanford (Line: Stanford -2.5)
Two Pac-12 teams with two losses apiece headed in different directions. With a win, the Buffs become bowl eligible for the first time since 2007. "The Rise" is real. Buffs 33-21

TCU at No. 12 West Virginia (Line: West Virginia -6)
We will likely keep asking if West Virginia is for real until the Mountaineers go the entire season unbeaten. The Horned Frogs head to the hills for an intriguing Big 12 battle. Dana Holgorsen is probably gonna shotgun another Red Bull on TV with his team winning big again. 'Neers 48-38

GAME OF THE WEEK

Trevor Knight was all smiles the last time he
played Alabama. That was with Oklahoma.
Did he bring some magic with him to Texas A&M?
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)

No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama (Line: Alabama -18)
An 18-point spread for the game of the week? Better question, is Alabama really that good? Scary good, in fast. A lot has been made of Trevor Knight, the former Sooner who beat Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, getting another crack at the Tide. This Tide, though, is a different kind of elephant. Defensive end Myles Garrett will pressure freshman QB Jalen Hurts more than he's seen in his young career. But Alabama is too much for the Aggies in the end. Tide 35-24

No. 19 Utah at UCLA (UCLA -7)
Make or break kind of game for Jim Mora at UCLA. A loss to Utah could lead to a bowl-less season. Meanwhile, Utah will do its best to not peak ahead to next week's major throwdown with No. 5 Washington. Trap game in the Rose Bowl? Utes 24-21

No. 17 Arkansas at No. 21 Auburn (Line: Auburn -9.5)
Austin Allen is one tough son-of-a-gun. His grit has been tested the past two weeks against Alabama and Ole Miss. Auburn had the week off to decide if it wants to use the QB carousel it began the season with or go with Sean White like it has in three straight wins. The winner on the Plains remains close behind the top tier of Bama/A&M. Hogs 30-24

No. 16 Oklahoma at Texas Tech (Line: Oklahoma -14)
It won't be a warm welcome back to Lubbock for Baker Mayfield. Tortillas, batteries and who knows what else will be thrown his way. Those Raider fans are harsh. Too bad their defense is softer than a rabbit's ears. Ponies and Wagons 62-20

No. 2 Ohio State at Penn State (Line: Ohio State -19.5)
The whiteout in Happy Valley is one of the best atmospheres in the game. But it won't be enough to slow down the ultra-talented Buckeyes. Urban Meyer has a one-track mind: He wants Saban. Buckeyes 45-13

No. 23 Ole Miss at No. 25 LSU (Line: LSU -5.5)
Ole Miss fell to 3-3 and is still ranked. It's absurd and both the AP voters and coaches who put together their polls should forfeit their votes just for that. The Fighting Orgeron's are playing well, almost like a team that has a ton of talent and a solid game plan. Hmm, no wonder Les Miles isn't coaching in Baton Rouge anymore. Bayou Bengals 31-27

Washington State at Arizona State (Line: Washington State -7.5)
Luke Falk is proving to be a great fit for Mike Leach's offense. The Cougs could be a legitimate threat to Washington in the Apple Cup at the end of the season. The Sun Devils are coming off a beat down at Colorado. Tough to follow that up with the Air Raid from the Paluse. Wazzu 38-28

-BtW

The Morning After... That? What was that?

Hunter Renfrow's acrobatic touchdown catch was one of the
few bright spots for the Clemson offense Saturday.
(Photo courtesy TigerNet.com)

1) There will be no sugar-coating in this blog - this Clemson team has not looked like a Top 10 team so far this season, much less the No. 2-ranked team. I fully expect the Tigers to drop a couple spots in the polls in a few hours. No offensive rhythm, dropped passes, nine carries for 34 yards by a running back who had over 1,500 yards last season, lack of QB protection, questionable play-calling, unfathomable mistakes, terrible third down conversion rate ... and that's just the offense. Luckily, Clemson's defense has looked somewhat the part of the past two seasons, but even they gave up two late scores that turned a 27-10 ballgame into an onside kick recovery away from a major scare.

2) About that third down conversion rate. Against Auburn and Troy, Clemson converted 14-of-37 tries on the money down. The Tigers were 8-of-20 against Troy. The 38 percent conversion rate is nearly 10 percent less than that of the 2015 team, when it finished the season with an over 47 percent conversion rate. Staying on the field and running more plays does a few things. One, it allows your offense to get into rhythm. Two, it deflates a defense trying desperately to get off the field on third down. Three, it allows your own defense to rest a few more plays instead of sending them out there after another three-and-out. This area needs to get better ASAP.

3) We've all seen it one too many times, and I've made it a point before to say this when it happens: Run the ball through the back of the end zone if you can and hand it to a referee after you score.

3B) Seriously, how hard is that? Run the ball past the goal line 10 more yards to the back of the end zone and give it to the ref. That way, you KNOW you scored.

4) Not everything that has happened offensively this season is Deshaun Watson's fault, but he simply does not look like the same guy from a season ago. I don't know if it was all the travel for awards and camps and appearances at ESPN or the 300 hours of courses he took between the end of last season and now or what. But this is not the same guy who had aspirations of winning a Heisman and getting a national championship before he left Clemson. If you read between the lines of all the quotes from Watson, Dabo Swinney, and co-offensive coordinators Jeff Scott and Tony Elliott, they are all searching for answers.

Deshaun Watson: "Everybody, especially you guys, the media, wants to see us score 50-60 points." Yes, fans have been so rational about this.

— Aaron Brenner (@Aaron_Brenner) September 10, 2016

Well, this was Deshaun Watson in May: "We have a chance to be one of the best offenses ever in college football." https://t.co/AZndibNF2B

— Jon Solomon (@JonSolomonCBS) September 10, 2016

Swinney on offense: 414 yards of offense and i don't know if we can play worse. we are rythmn offense and we are not making routine plays.

— TigerNet.com (@ClemsonTigerNet) September 10, 2016

Swinney on offense: We put a DLineman in there to see if he could make a play.

— TigerNet.com (@ClemsonTigerNet) September 10, 2016

#Clemson co-OC Jeff Scott acknowledges right off the bat that offense did not play up to its potential and is capable of being much better.

— Dan Hope (@Dan_Hope) September 10, 2016

Among others, Scott said, "We're just not clicking the way that we know we can. We know what we have in that room and for whatever reason we're just not on the same page right now."

Elliott noted, "We've got to find rhythm on offense. ... We tried to establish an early rhythm in the running game, but they came out with some different structure where they were going to take some chances. They were geared up to stop our bread and butter, so we had to find some complimentary schemes we had to get to. ... We felt like we could make some plays in the passing game until we could figure out what were our best schemes."

You mean the opposing team game-planned to stop what you do, and you weren't prepared for that and had to spend time figuring out what would work? Yikes.

5) I'm moving on. I could spend all morning writing about how bad this team has looked. Luckily, Clemson is 2-0 and that is ultimately what matters. If they put it together over the next 10 games and the offense clicks, this will be a minor blip on the radar. For now, it appears there are myriad problems needing fixing.

6) The Sooners bounced back to the tune of 459 yards in the first half in a dominant win over UL-Monroe. This was expected, as the Warhawks were no match for Oklahoma. The air raid offense was wide open and OU pretty much was able to do whatever it wanted. Backups played the entire second half, which prevented any injuries as the Sooners get set to host a big one next weekend in Norman. Ohio State (I refuse to call them "The") comes calling in what should be a fantastic heavy-weight matchup.

7) So much for a ho-hum Saturday with zero games involving two ranked teams. Non-Power 5 teams pulled off more upsets of Power 5 teams for the second straight week. ACC - NC State lost to East Carolina. Big Ten - Cincinnati beat Purdue and FCS Illinois State knocked off Northwestern. Big 12 - Central Michigan stunned Oklahoma State (albeit, the last play should have never happened, thought it did and thus, as a Top 25 team, you don't put yourself in that position to begin with) and Ohio beat Kansas ... well, that's not an upset. Pac-12 - San Diego State defeated Cal and Boise State held on against Washington State, although that, like Ohio-Kansas, wasn't so much an upset, but still a non-Power 5 taking down a Power 5. SEC - Well, there were no upsets in the SEC this week, but Nicholls gave Georgia a close call.

8) Texas might be the Big 12's saving grace. Oklahoma fell to Houston last week, then Oklahoma State was upset by Central Michigan and TCU lost a heartbreaker to Arkansas Saturday. That means the top three Big 12 teams heading into the season all have a loss. None are technically out of the Playoff hunt, but the Longhorns have looked sharp early on. With momentum in their favor, the Horns may be the best shot for the Big 12 to get a team into the Top 4 of the initial Playoff rankings.

9) Quick thoughts - In case your thumb wasn't fast enough to change channels, or you fell asleep early, you missed some wild ones last night. Arkansas-TCU had a crazy finish including two blown leads, a blocked game-winning field goal and double overtime, ending in a Hog victory. Boise State almost blew a 17-point lead, but held on to knock off Washington State 31-28. Utah thwarted a BYU comeback by stuffing a would-be game-winning two-point conversion. San Diego State held on against Cal on the West Coast. And some guy name Kalen Ballage scored a FBS record-tying eight touchdowns to help Arizona State win a shootout against Texas Tech 68-55. ... On Friday, Louisville blew the doors of Syracuse and the Carrier Dome, 62-28. Cards quarterback Lamar Jackson is the immediate front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. Against the Orange, Jackson had 411 passing yards and 199 rushing yards to become the first QB in college history to pass for over 400 and rush for over 175. He's accounted for 13 touchdowns in the Cards' two games, despite only playing half a game in the first one. Look out, Florida State. The Noles go to Louisville this weekend in what should be a gargantuan matchup.

10) I don't care if the offense scores a touchdown on every possession and puts up 100 points this week. That does not mean they have it all figured out. Clemson is playing a MEAC school and should do that. Just a two years ago, the Tigers beat SC State 73-7. It'd be nice to see that again, but I won't be convinced that all is right in TigerTown. I'll need to see it again the following Thursday in Atlanta. That said, one game at a time. Beat SC State.

-BtW