Showing posts with label Pittsburgh. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pittsburgh. Show all posts

Sunday, November 13, 2016

The Morning After... #Chaos

Sorry, Clemson fans. This won't be all sunshine and rainbows like what you've heard out of the locker room Saturday night. I'm a fan and as a fan, I have the right to be upset with what transpired in our home at the hands of Pitt.

1) Deshaun Watson needs to stop thinking about the NFL. He's pressured himself into thinking he's a legitimate Top 5 pick and is trying to prove it every week. He's forcing throws into tight windows. He's making poor decisions. He has 13 interceptions this season through 10 games. He had 13 all last season (15 games). All the trips this past spring and summer got to his head. He said at the beginning of the year that all that was a grind and it was uncomfortable for him, but he still had to go out and play. Well, he's pressing and it has nearly cost Clemson several times this season. It finally did against Pitt.
Yeah, yeah. Pitt's Chris Blewitt didn't blow it. The headline
writes itself. But Clemson did blow it.
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

2) Clemson's offensive playcaller Tony Elliott out-coached himself at least twice. First, even after all I said about Watson in #1 of this post, you have the best player on the field with a 3rd and 1 AND a 4th and 1 with a minute to go in the game and you took the ball out of his hands. TWICE you pitched it back five yards to a running back that had less than 40 yards all game. This also goes into the players' hands for not being able to get one yard on two downs. But with a QB who has thrown for 580 yards, why go to the ground game there and why take the ball out of the hands of the best player on the field?

This is going to sound counter-intuitive, but on the previous drive why are we throwing the ball on 2nd and goal from the three after running for four yards on first down? There was 5:45 to play, you need to run clock and all you need to do is kick a field goal on that drive and you win. Just run the ball and game over. Hindsight is always 20-20, but coaches at this level have to make better decisions.

3) Pitt's offensive coordinator Matt Canada out-coached Brent Venables. Clemson had no answer for stopping the shovel pass, a wrinkle the Tigers hadn't seen and couldn't adjust to until it was too late. Canada exploited the Tigers' weakness - coverage by linebackers. It's been bad under Venables and has never gotten better. 

4) Blame the refs all you want, and there are plenty of opportunities to do so, but for every penalty thrown against Clemson, there were double the amount of bonehead mistakes by a Tiger player or coach. The refs play a part in every game. That's a fact. But they were not the reason for the outcome. That's one area where I agree with Dabo's postgame comments. 

5) Spent the early part of the day in Norman for the OU-Baylor game. Speaking of outcoaching themselves, Baylor ran for over 200 yards on Oklahoma, gaining five-plus yards on numerous plays right up the middle, but the Bears kept going to the air. They were picked off twice, including once on the goalline when Baylor was trying to cut the OU lead to 14-7. The pick allowed the Sooners to go up 21-0. For OU, the game seemed very ho-hum. There really wasn't much Baylor was doing to stop OU. After getting out to a 21-0 lead, the teams traded scores most of the rest of the way, tying the remainder of the game 24-24. It was a perfect afternoon for football and it was great to get back to a college game. BENched always enjoys his time in Norman.

6) OK, let's get the chaos out of the way. For the record, I sat on my couch following Clemson's loss and just started saying, "Chaos." I guess if you say it enough, it will happen. And it did, so allow BENched to explain what will likely happen these next few weeks with regards to the CFB Playoff rankings:

  • Nos. 2, 3 and 4 all lost Saturday. Aforementioned No. 2 Clemson fell to Pitt, 43-42; No. 3 Michigan also lost on last-second field goal 14-13 at Iowa; and No. 4 Washington was dominated by No. 20 USC on its home field, 26-13.
  • That leaves us with two unbeatens (Alabama and Western Michigan). It also leaves us with a jumbled mess between No. 2 and No. 6 in the rankings. Expect Ohio State to move to No. 2 behind No. 1 Alabama. That much should be clear and easy. There are five other Power 5 teams with one loss - Clemson, Louisville, Michigan, Washington, and West Virginia. The Mountaineers were No. 16 in last week's rankings and I don't see them jumping at least 10 spots after a close win over 5-5 Texas. 
  • The Playoff Committee has set a precedent that for the most part, teams with equal records who have played each other, the head-to-head winner will be ranked above. Therefore, I believe Clemson in some capacity will be ahead of Louisville. Clemson was also previously ahead of Michigan and with both teams losing, and Big Blue gaining 200 yards and scoring only 13 points, I can't see Clemson falling behind the Wolverines. Washington's loss was crushing for the Huskies, so here's how I see Nos. 3-6: Clemson, Michigan, Louisville, Washington.
  • Iowa's upset of Michigan was not so good for the Buckeyes.
    (Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)
  • If you want chaos, wait until Penn State wins out (Rutgers and Michigan State are all that remain) and Ohio State beats Michigan in the Horseshoe. The Nittany Lions will play for the Big Ten title, while both OSU and UM sit at home awaiting a potential Playoff fate.
7) Don't be shocked when what I just said is completely false. It's very plausible that Clemson falls out of the Top 4, Louisville is ranked third, and instead of one-loss Washington at No. 6, perhaps a two-loss Wisconsin or Penn State slides in. These rankings are fluid and will completely different anyway at the end of the season once conference championships are factored in. Even if Louisville is ahead of Clemson, if the Tigers win the ACC and are 12-1, they will be ranked ahead of 11-1 Louisville in the final Playoff ranking.

8) Two thoughts here: The Big 12 is dead. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and WVU are the only hope. Oklahoma is higher ranked and plays both teams in its final two games. Both OU and OSU have two losses, while the 'Neers only loss is to OSU. Even if one-loss WVU emerges, the Big 12 is so down it won't have enough quality wins to sniff the Playoff. Same goes for OU/OSU, who lost to Houston and Central Michigan, respectively.
Jake Browning's thoughts reflected those of Husky Nation.
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

The Pac-12 is not dead. Washington might be out for now, but the Huskies will have ample opportunity to make up for the one loss. Colorado, USC and Utah are in a battle in the South. It's likely the winner of that division will be have Top 15 or better ranking entering the Pac-12 title game ... Where it will face either highly-ranked Washington or Washington State. The winner of the Apple Cup will in the North Division. Wazzu is 8-2 and has won eight-in-a-row. If the Cougs can win at Colorado and vs. Washington, plus the Pac-12 championship, they will see a big jump in the rankings. Washington can win on the road at Wazzu and then a Pac-12 title and be right back in the Playoff mix.

9) It's only Nov. 13 and we have chaos. Next week provides some relief. Most of the big teams face lesser opponents. Remember, this is the week the SEC takes a break from action to play the likes of Chattanooga, UT-Martin, The Citadel, etc. The SEC East could be decided if Florida beats LSU in the makeup game which was moved from The Swamp to Death Valley. Some big conference games are on tap in the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12, but the big one of the weekend will be Oklahoma traveling to West Virginia. All this to say, expect more chaos in the next three weekends.

10) Clemson is down and not out. Here's where what the players/coaches said is true. The Tigers are facing adversity and it can either build them or break them. Clemson faces championship weekends in its next two games. Wins at each stop will add another trophy to the case in Tiger Town. It starts with winning at Wake Forest to clinch the ACC Atlantic Division. We are #ALLIN, Always. Beat Wake.

-BtW

Sunday, November 6, 2016

The Morning After... Blowout Saturday

Artavis Scott caught one of Nick Scheussler's two TD passes.
Scott saluted military personnel in the stands
on Military Appreciation Day at Clemson.
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)
1) Clemson's 54-0 win over Syracuse was about as complete a performance you'll see. The Tigers's offense was in sync, gaining 195 yards on the ground and 370 through the air. The defense was fast, physical, and slowed down the Orange uptempo spread offense. Clemson pitched a shutout and scored a defensive TD with a pick-6 by redshirt freshman Tanner Muse, who isn't listed on the Tigers' depth chart. There were two areas of concern - first, Deshaun Watson left with a shoulder injury late in the second quarter. It's been reported his injury was just a bruise and Watson could have returned if needed. With a 30-0 halftime lead, it was unnecessary. In relief, Nick Schuessler was brilliant. The career backup was 11-of-17 for 177 yards and two touchdowns.

The second area of concern was special teams. Clemson missed a PAT, a FG, and allowed a long kickoff return. There may have been a lack of focus in some areas with the game out of hand, but the mistakes need to be corrected. It's hard to get upset with Greg Huegel missing a 40-yard field goal after he went 3-for-3 including a clutch 46-yarder last week at Florida State. Consistency needs to improve for the young kicker.

2) With little to discuss in a 54-0 game, I figured I'd give my take on the Ben Boulware suplex tackle. No whistles had blown, the offensive player was still fighting for yards, and Boulware was doing all he could to get the guy to the ground. Was it a forceful takedown? Sure. But the referee's reported explanation of why he was penalized was because "he tackled him too hard." What does that even mean, too hard? Is he supposed to hit him with a pillow and hope he falls? Look, I'm on the side of the medical analysts who are looking out for players and injuries to their heads because CTE is real, but to say a tackle was "too hard" and THAT be the reason for the flag is pitiful.

3) It's become clear that one of two scenarios is playing out with Clemson's running game. Either Wayne Gallman doesn't have his heart 100% into this season or the Tigers aren't very good at run blocking. In a game where everything went Clemson's way, the Tigers averaged just 4.4 yards per carry. Now, 4.4 yards per carry gets you a first down every three carries, I get that. But the Tigers are averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the entire season. Gallman averaged 6.3 yards per carry (10 rushes for 63 yards), but he had one 30-yard gain. In a shortened day, he had nine carries for 33 yards (3.7 ypc). Clemson's not getting it done on the ground and Gallman has had far too many games with only 10-12 carries.

4) The win sets up a chance for Clemson to accomplish several things next weekend when Pitt visits Death Valley. First, Clemson can win 10 games for the sixth straight season, matching only Alabama for current active streaks (assuming Bama beats Mississippi State next weekend). Second, Clemson will clinch the Atlantic Division title for the second straight season. And last, a win next week would assure the Tigers a spot in the AP Top 5 for the 20th consecutive poll. Previously, Clemson's longest streak inside the AP Top 5 was eight weeks during the 1981 season.

5) More impressive stats: Clemson has begun the season 9-0 for just the fourth time in school history and the second straight season. The other seasons were 1948 under Frank Howard when Clemson finished 11-0 and 1981 under Danny Ford, the Tigers' lone National Championship season when they finished 12-0. Last season, Clemson took a 14-0 record into the National Championship game before losing to Alabama, 45-40. ... Clemson has won 46 straight against unranked teams (AP Poll), 23 straight regular season games, 21 straight at home and 15 straight ACC games. ... Clemson is now 23-1 since the start of the 2015 season. That is tied with Alabama for the best record in that time.

6) It seems long ago - it was only Thursday - when Oklahoma won at Iowa State. Thursday games do that to you, but the Sooners went up to Ames on a short week and came away with a double-digit win over a team that had played Baylor, Oklahoma State and Kansas State all within a one-possession score. The reason to keep your eyes on the Sooners is two-fold: 1) OU could run the table and finish 10-2 with nine straight wins and be a conference champion. 2) Dede Westbrook is the best receiver in football. Over his past six games, he's hauled in 12 touchdown receptions, has 1,011 receiving yards, and has a punt return for a TD.

7) On a day when most of the games ended like Clemson's 54-0 rout, there were only a few things that stood out. Texas A&M losing at Mississippi State could not have been seen by anyone. The Aggies were 10-point favorites on the road and faced a 3-5 MSU team that had lost to South Alabama. Needless to say, A&M will be falling far from the CFB Playoff Top 4. ... Staying in the SEC, the East is about as muddled and less than mediocre as ever. Florida, the top team in the East, fell 31-10 at Arkansas. Kentucky had a chance to take over the top spot, but lost to middling Georgia at home. And somehow, South Carolina is technically in the SEC East race after beginning the season 2-4. The Gamecocks have to win at Florida this weekend and hope a lot of other things happen. But in a season when this is how we've gotten here, why not?

7B) Alabama and LSU were scoreless through three quarters, but it was evident the Crimson Tide were close to breaking through several times. Bama missed a field goal, was stuffed on fourth-and-goal from the one, and had several other chances in Tiger territory. The 10-0 isn't impressive in terms of blowout numbers, but Alabama was the much better team. Not hard to believe considering LSU is now 5-3 and very well could end up 5-6 with games against Arkansas, Florida, and Texas A&M still to come. For Alabama, all eyes are now on the Iron Bowl.

8) Texas outlasted Texas Tech on the road, enhancing the chances the Longhorns reach bowl eligibility. D'Onta Foreman had a career day with 341 yards and three touchdowns. Foreman has 1,446 yards on 206 carries (7.0 ypc) and 13 touchdowns. It's sad that he plays at Texas or he would likely be the frontrunner for the Heisman. ...  In other Big 12 action, Oklahoma State rallied to beat Kansas State, 43-37. The Cowboys (7-2) remain in control of their destiny in the Big 12, needing to win out against Texas Tech, TCU and Oklahoma to claim the conference crown. ... The black cloud over Waco got even darker this weekend. People inside the Baylor bubble might be some of the most idiotic. I feel sorry for Jim Grobe having to deal with the mess he's in. If I were him, I'd tell those people to shove it. Oh, Baylor lost at home to rival TCU, 62-22, while wearing all black uniforms and fans dressing in black to show support for Art Briles. YUCK!

9) Conference races are heating up with just a few weeks to go. Here are the teams with a realistic shot of winning their divisions/conferences:
ACC Atlantic - Clemson, Louisville
ACC Coastal - Virginia Tech, North Carolina
Big 12 - Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Big Ten East - Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Big Ten West - Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota
Pac-12 North - Washington, Washington State
Pac-12 South - Colorado, USC, Utah
SEC East - Everyone except Vandy and Mizzou
SEC West - Alabama, Auburn

10) Pitt lost at Miami 51-28 Saturday and has back-to-back losses after starting the year 5-3, one win from bowl eligibility. Another long trip south for the Panthers. Give them another long trip back home. Beat Pitt.

Friday, September 9, 2016

PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 2

After what was billed as the greatest opening weekend ever, college football enters cupcake week. Opening weekend produced some real exciting games, lots of upset, and left us wanting more. Unfortunately, the second week of the season will be a bit of a let down.

There are no Top 25 showdowns. Some decent games are on tap, including a few rivalries, but don't expect to be tied to your La-Z-Boy all day Saturday. Let's get to the picks!

2016 BENched PTF Record: 9-3 (.750 win %)
*Rankings below reflect the AP Top 25

Saturday

Penn State at Pittsburgh (Line: Pittsburgh -4.5)
Pitt-Penn State Rivalry (Penn State leads 50-42-4)
This rivalry is finally renewed after a 16-year hiatus. Neither team is coming off impressive wins in the first week, as the Nittany Lions beat Kent State 33-13 and the Panthers knocked off Villanova 28-7. James Conner's return was heart-warming. He scored two touchdowns in his first action since taking on and defeating cancer. Should be a dandy to kickoff the day. Despite the game being played in Pittsburgh and in an NFL stadium, the crowd should be pro-Penn State and the atmosphere tremendous.
Pittsburgh 23, Penn State 17

Troy at No. 2 Clemson (Line: Clemson -36)
For the third straight game, Clemson takes on an opponent from the state of Alabama. For the second straight week, the Tigers face off against a former Clemson defensive coordinator. Returning to the friendly confines of Death Valley for the first time in five games, Clemson aims to get its offense rolling against a scrappy, but overwhelmed bunch from Troy. This may be closer than the 36-point spread, but it won't be close enough to be worrisome for Tiger fans.
Clemson 38, Troy 17

Kentucky at Florida (Line: Florida -16.5)
The Gators led UMass 10-7 in the fourth quarter before pulling away 24-7, while the Wildcats blew a 35-10 halftime lead and lost to Southern Miss 44-35. Florida has a 29-game win streak over Kentucky, a streak that likely won't be broken this season in The Swamp.
Florida 28, Kentucky 10

South Carolina at Mississippi State (Line: Mississippi State -7)
The Gamecocks opened the Will Muschamp era with a 13-10 win over Vanderbilt. South Carolina trailed 10-0 at halftime, but Perry Orth found some rhythm in the second half, enough to pick up the road win. Meanwhile, Mississippi State was left searching for answers after blowing a 20-7 lead against South Alabama, then missing a short field goal late that led to a 21-20 win for the Jaguars. The Bulldogs being a seven-point favorite is either telling that Vegas still believes in the Bulldogs, or what they think of the Gamecocks.
Mississippi State 27, South Carolina 17

Arkansas at No. 15 TCU (Line: TCU -7.5)
This one will have eyes all over it. TCU was slow out of the gate against South Dakota State, ultimately winning 59-41. Kenny Hill seemed to grasp the Horned Frog offense, passing for 439 yards and two touchdowns, and rushing for three more scores. Arkansas struggled to put away Louisiana Tech, needing a fourth quarter TD to win 21-20. Expect the Hogs to stick with their ground and pound approach. If they get too far behind early on, it could be tough trying to play catch-up with the high-flying Frogs.
TCU 44, Arkansas 27

Iowa State at No. 16 Iowa (Line: Iowa -15)
Battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy (Iowa leads 41-22)
Iowa returned a lot from the 2015 squad that went undefeated in the regular season, but faltered in the Big Ten Championship Game and the Rose Bowl. The Hawkeyes have another easy schedule that should allow them to win double-digit games again. Iowa State on the other hand is breaking in a new coach, as Matt Campbell made his way to Ames from Toledo. His debut was forgettable, though. The Cyclones fell to Northern Iowa in Week 1. A rivalry game can always produce an interesting result, but the only thing interesting about this one will be seeing the trophy on the field.
Iowa 40, Iowa State 17
BYU quarterback Taysom Hill is back for one more season.
Hill looks to lead his Cougars to a big win at Utah in the Holy War.
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)
BYU at Utah (Line: Utah -3.5)
Holy War (Utah leads 58-34-4)
It's not on the level of Alabama-Auburn, Ohio State-Michigan or Oklahoma-Texas, but there is no love lost between BYU and Utah. The Utes rolled out to a 35-0 lead on BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl in December before holding on for a 35-28 win. Fresh off a shutout of Southern Utah, the Utes aim for their second win over BYU in three games. BYU opened the season with an 18-16 win over Arizona at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale to kick off the Kalani Sitake era. Taysom Hill is back for the Cougars and that's a good thing for college football fans. Hill's mobility and toughness could lead BYU to an upset here. In fact, I'll pick it.
BYU 23, Utah 20

North Carolina at Illinois (Line: North Carolina -7.5)
The Tar Heels fell flat after holding a 10-point lead on Georgia in Atlanta, ultimately being run over by Nick Chubb. Good news, UNC fans, Illinois does not have a Chubb on the roster, or anything like him for that matter. Lovie Smith led the Fighting Illini to a 52-3 whooping over Murray State. North Carolina presents a different challenge with offensive weapons all over the field including running back Elijah Hood. Last year, Hood had 129 yards and a TD run in a 48-14 Tar Heel win over Illinois in Chapel Hill. Something tells me he has a big day in Champaign.
North Carolina 37, Illinois 24

Virginia Tech vs. No. 17 Tennessee (Line: Tennessee -11) - at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tenn.
Over 150,000 folks will pack Bristol Motor Speedway for the most anticipated, but too far away to see from the stands game in college football history. Bristol, Tenn., splits the two campuses and this game has been in the works for years. Tennessee looked ugly in its season opener against Appalachian State, earning a come-from-behind 20-13 win in overtime. The Hokies struggled early in their opener against Liberty, but topped the Flames 36-13. Tennessee, on paper, has more talent. There could be many storylines out of this one, including the amount of fans, the noise level or lack of, the sight lines, the depth perception of the players, etc. Still, the Vols probably get it done.
Tennessee 24, Virginia Tech 13

Texas Tech at Arizona State (Line: Arizona State -2.5)
The first of many late night starts that are actually pretty good games comes to us from Tempe, Ariz. Patrick Mahomes might be the best under-the-radar quarterback in college football. Most people expect the Red Raiders QBs to have huge stats because of the system. Mahomes, however, possesses a power arm, accuracy and mobility that sets him apart from previous Texas Tech signal callers. Arizona State also has a high-flying offense, so expect a lot of points in this one.
Texas Tech 45, Arizona State 38

Washington State at Boise State (Line: Boise State -10.5)
Mike Leach and his band of pirates, er, Cougars head to The Blue" for the home opener for Boise State. Luke Falk, like Mahomes an unheralded but very good quarterback, will try to duplicate the 2015 season in which he threw for over 4500 yards and 38 TDs to just eight interceptions. The Cougars also lost to an FCS school to open that season, but went on to win nine games and defeated Miami in the Sun Bowl. Boise State has a force at running back, though. Jeremy McNichols leads the Broncos offense and could be trouble for Washington State, which gave up 45 points to Eastern Washington.
Boise State 52, Washington State 31

Cal at San Diego State (Line: San Diego State -7)
San Diego State is a sleeper pick for the top Group of 5 team to emerge unscathed. A touchdown favorite, the Aztecs are hoping to upend a Cal team who have already had an interesting start to the season. The Bears scored 51 points to beat Hawai'i in the opener two weeks ago in Australia, but spent the last week overcoming jet-lag. Now, they head south to take on a team looking for a season-defining win.
San Diego State 41, Cal 31

Virginia at No. 24 Oregon (Line: Oregon -24.5)
This late-nighter won't be pretty. FCS Richmond took down Virginia last week and Oregon looks to be as potent on offense as ever. The Ducks don't have a Marcus Mariota, but they do have Royce Freeman, the best running back you haven't heard of yet. You can head to bed at halftime of this one, if the game isn't already out of hand by then.
Oregon 63, Virginia 10

-BtW