Showing posts with label Mississippi State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mississippi State. Show all posts

Friday, September 29, 2017

PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 5

BENched took a few chances and they went awry. It's early in the season, so that was expected. You live and learn and move forward. Going to try something a little different this week with the picks. Let's do it!

2017 Record
Overall: 55-16 (.775 win %)
Last Week: 9-8
Game of the Week Pick: 2-2
*Rankings below reflect the AP Top 25

AP Top 10
Ole Miss at 1 Alabama
Saturday, 9 pm ET, ESPN
Alabama -27
Remember when the Rebels were a thorn in Nick Saban's side? They won't be again for a long, long time. Tide 51-12

GAME OF THE WEEK
Can the Tigers survive Lane Stadium?
2 Clemson at 12 Virginia Tech
Saturday, 8 pm ET, ABC
Clemson -7.5
We've arrived at the exact week of the season when I picked against Clemson one year ago. I took Louisville to down the Tigers last season. Fortunately, I was wrong. A year later, you'd think I'd've learned my lesson. I simply feel like this Hokie team is different. Yes, Josh Jackson is a freshman quarterback going against the best defensive line in the country. Yes, Clemson is battle-tested, having already defeated two Top-15 teams. Yes, Kelly Bryant played cool, calm, and collected in his first road start. But something feels much different than two weeks ago at Louisville. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic about my team. I don't have an Xs and Os breakdown of why I think Virginia Tech will win. To be honest, Clemson making it through September 4-1 would be a really good thing. If they are 5-0 after Saturday night, we could really be in for Bama-Clemson III. For now, I'll pull the reins back. Hokies 20-17

 (NOTE: After I typed this Thursday evening, I received my IPTAY package in the mail Friday afternoon and am having serious second thoughts. Perhaps that was a good omen? We'll see.)

3 Oklahoma - BYE

Indiana at 4 Penn State
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, Big Ten
Penn State -18
It would not be surprising to see Penn State have a bit of a hangover following last week's thrilling win at Iowa. Getting Indiana at home for that hangover game helps. Lions 31-16

5 USC at 16 Washington State
Friday, 10:30 pm ET, ESPN
USC -5
I'm sensing either a wild shootout on the Palouse or a Friday night stinker. Wazzu is the trendy pick. I like Luke Falk slightly more than Sam Darnold right now. Statistically, Falk's having a much better season than the guy that's getting the Heisman love. I'm just not convinced the Cougs are ready to show out in primetime. Trojans 38-28

6 Washington at Oregon State
Saturday, 8 pm ET, Pac-12
Washington -26.5
Can't see this one being much of a game. The Huskies took it to Colorado last week. Expect even worse for the Beavs. Dawgs 52-7

7 Georgia at Tennessee
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, CBS
Georgia -7.5
The Georgia-Tennessee game has been decided by eight points or less each of the past six years. Expect it to be close. Tennessee is winless in its last 24 games against teams ranked in the Top 10 since 2008. Expect Georgia to make it 0-25. Other Dawgs 34-27

8 Michigan - BYE

9 TCU - BYE

Northwestern at 10 Wisconsin
Saturday, Noon ET, ABC
Wisconsin -14.5
Somehow, this game will be low scoring and close because Big Ten football. Badgers 21-9

Must Watch
14 Miami at Duke
Friday, 7 pm ET, ESPN
Miami -6.5
Get your weekend started with an enticing matchup between two undefeated ACC Coastal schools. The Hurricanes found new life in the second half last week against Toledo. Duke used a balanced attack to knock off rival North Carolina. Both teams are looking to get a leg up in the standings. As much as I'd like to pick Duke and think David Cutcliffe has this team squarely in contention, Miami has too many weapons. Canes 34-20

 15 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Saturday, 8pm ET, Fox
Oklahoma State -10.5
It seems like no matter what, Oklahoma State can't lose to Texas Tech. A night game in Lubbock is no cakewalk, though. Tortillas will be flying as will the football through the air. I'm guessing this one will be pretty high-scoring. Get your popcorn ready. Pokes 58-45

Keep An Eye On
Florida State at Wake Forest
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, ABC
Florida State -7.5
How odd is it that we have winless Florida State visiting undefeated Wake Forest? FSU's troubles are highly concerning. No one can block up front and I wasn't overly impressed with freshman quarterback James Blackman. Wake may be able to get a steal here, but I'm sticking with the Noles to finally get a W. Noles 27-20

 24 Mississippi State at 13 Auburn
Saturday, 6 pm ET, ESPN
Auburn -9
So maybe Mississippi State isn't that good after all. And maybe Auburn's offense just needed to be completely healthy. Either way, this one could get ugly on the Plains. Auburn 40-17

 Cal at Oregon
Saturday, 10:30 pm ET, FS1
Oregon -15
Cal took USC to the brink and Oregon had trouble stopping Arizona State. It is full-on #Pac12AfterDark in Eugene. Ducks 45-42

-BtW
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Sunday, September 24, 2017

The Morning After - Survival Saturday

I called this weekend "sneaky good" and it delivered. A few upsets happened, beginning with Virginia knocking off Boise State Friday night on The Blue Turf, and many others were close to happening. My thoughts on the day that was college football Saturday.

1st Quarter
Kendall Joseph (34) was all over the field Saturday.
(Photo courtesy Clemson Athletics)
Sandwiched between two tough road games, Clemson came away with a 34-7 win over Boston College in the proverbial trap game. No, this game was not a blowout as the score indicates. And no, Clemson fans weren't thrilled about a 7-7 score in the fourth quarter. What I am pleased with was that this team faced some adversity (again - think Auburn) and overcame it in a big way (again). Kelly Bryant's passing was off. The defense was letting BC into Clemson territory all game, but stiffened up. The offense had starting field position inside its own 10 yard line half the game. At the end of the day, Clemson was the superior team and the athletic advantage swung in the Tigers' favor midway through the fourth quarter.

Bryant ran for 102 yards and scored twice. Freshman running back Travis Etienne rushed for 113 yards and scored twice in the fourth quarter, giving Clemson the spark it needed. The Tigers outgained the Eagles 482-238, rushed for 342 yards, converted half their third downs (8 for 16), and had 27 first downs to BC's 12. Those were some of the highlights that stood out and what I will try to remember about this game going forward.

Going into next week, though, things need to be cleaned up. An offensive performance like those first three quarters will result in a loss Saturday night in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is fast and physical, much like Auburn. The difference? The Hokies have an offense. Clemson's defense will face its first team challenge. Stopping a one-man show (Lamar Jackson) is one thing, but slowing down the Hokies won't be easy. Beat Virginia Tech.

2nd Quarter
TCU waltzed into the house that T. Boone Pickens built and poked the Cowboys where it hurts most. See what I did there? The Horned Frogs put the Big 12 and the rest of the country on notice that not only does it have a defense that can slow down one of the most prolific offenses, but it has an offense that will contend with the best. Gary Patterson has TCU on the right track once again. I'd like to see a little consistency first before putting them in the Playoff. The Frogs have to go to K-State, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech, the latter two back-to-back. Long way to go.

As for OSU, that was a big bite of humble pie. Mike Gundy went on record as saying he didn't know how anyone was going to stop his offense. You've been served. But he's a man, he's 50! He can take it. His Cowboys now face the fact that they were beaten soundly at home and still have the entire Big 12 slate to go, including next week at Texas Tech, plus a late October-early November stretch at Texas, at West Virginia, and versus OU. And the blueprint for how to beat the Pokes is out there.

3rd Quarter
Georgia catapulted to the top of the SEC East with it's dominant win from start to finish over Mississippi State. BENched was wrong about which Bulldogs would show up to play. Kudos to Kirby Smart for making me look dumb. He had a great gameplan to stop MSU's Nick Fitzgerald. We saw freshman Jake Fromm grow up right before our eyes. I thought the big game atmosphere might get to him a bit. The opposite occurred. He was just 9-for-12 passing, but had 201 yards and two scores, including the beautiful flea-flicker for a 59-yard TD on the first play of the game.

Talk of Mississippi State being the team that could challenge Alabama in the West came to a halt. Now, the SEC is two teams - Bama in the West, and Georgia in the East.

4th Quarter
The Penn State Nittany Lions passed their first big test, one that many teams fail. Trace McSorley's touchdown pass as time expired gave college football the game of the year. It was an ugly game. No one will refer back to it as a season-defining win. The Lions will get credit, however, for winning a road game in a tough venue early in the season, something they failed to do twice last year (at Pitt and at Michigan). James Franklin's bunch showed resolve. They'll have a few more battles coming up, but Oct. 21 at home against Michigan is looming large.

On the Heisman front - and I hate to do this so early in the year - Saquon Barkley served notice to all the quarterbacks out there that he may be the most explosive player in the game. He juked, hurdled, and carried Hawkeye defenders all night. He won't get the glory of the game-winning score, but if not for him, it's likely PSU wouldn't have been in the game at all.

Overtime
After jumping out to a 28-10 lead, Oklahoma watched Baylor grab momentum and reel off 21 straight points to take a 31-28 lead in the third quarter. Baker Mayfield's third touchdown pass of the night gave OU the lead back and then the Sooners gave the Bears a Sermon, Trey Sermon that is. The freshman entered the game and carried the ball 12 times for 148 yards and two scores to put the game just out of reach enough. It was a scare OU fans didn't like to see, but Lincoln Riley gets a bye week to regroup before heading full steam into Big 12 play. ... NC State pulled off a shocker in Tallahassee, handing the Seminoles their second loss of the year in just their second game. The Wolfpack defensive front frustrated freshman QB James Blackman all game. FSU now goes back to the drawing board without a win and staring down an ACC schedule with current unbeatens Wake Forest, Miami, and Duke as their next three opponents, and of course Clemson down the road with Louisville and Florida as well. Serious question, will the Noles make a bowl game? Also serious question, is NC State Clemson's biggest threat in the Atlantic division? ... A&M and Arkansas produced a shootout in the Southwest Classic, with the Aggies winning another OT game against the Hogs, 50-43. Too bad all this game does is put one coach on the hotter seat and give the other fanbase reason to fret how their coach will screw up after this win. ... USC wasn't overly impressive in a win at Cal, but the Trojans forced six turnovers and pulled out a 10-point road conference victory. That's good enough for now. ... Michigan found its quarterback, John O'Korn, for now. The Wolverines had some offensive life at Purdue and get a bye week to get O'Korn more reps with the ones before hosting in-state rival Michigan State. ... I can't leave out the performance by Alabama. Man, that was scary. But just remember, that was a bunch of four- and five-stars beating up a bunch of afterthought recruits. No need to make this one bigger than it really is. ... Last but not least, #Pac12AfterDark gave us Washington doing to Colorado the same thing it did in last year's title game, Arizona State scoring an upset over the 24th-ranked Oregon Ducks, and Stanford racing past UCLA 58-34. Staying up late isn't easy, but it's usually worth it.

Tiger Tweets




































-BtW 
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Friday, September 22, 2017

PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 4

Conference play is virtually in full swing now. The days of Power 5 vs. Mid-major are nearly over. After a strong start to the year, BENched is ready for the challenge of picking these tougher matchups. There's no real marquee game this week, but the slate is full of intrigue. Here we go!

2017 Record
Overall: 46-8 (.852 win %)
Last Week: 14-4
Game of the Week Pick: 2-1
*Rankings below reflect the AP Top 25

AP Top 10
1 Alabama at Vanderbilt
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, CBS
Alabama -18.5
Confidence is sky high in Nashville, as the Dores are set to host the Crimson Tide. Vandy is off to a 3-0 start, including a win last weekend over ranked Kansas State. No upset this weekend. Tide 27-9

Boston College at 2 Clemson
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN2
Clemson -34
Good chance this one is over by halftime. Clemson is riding a big wave of momentum after knocking off Auburn and Louisville in consecutive weeks. The Tigers are probably looking ahead to taking on Virginia Tech next week. BC gave up over 500 yards rushing to Notre Dame a week ago. Clemson's stable of backs and QB Kelly Bryant will have a field day. Tigers 45-3

 3 Oklahoma at Baylor
Saturday, 6:30 pm ET, FS1
Oklahoma -27.5
Will Baker Mayfield and the Sooners be able to name their own score? Probably. For some reason, I think this will be closer than most expect ... at first. Oklahoma rolls. Sooners 50-17

4 Penn State at Iowa
Saturday, 7:30 pm ET, ABC
Penn State -11.5
Plenty of teams have stumbled in Iowa over the years. Just ask Michigan last year. Penn State is a different animal. The Nittany Lions seem to be one of the most complete teams in the country. Saquon Barkley is going to go off. Lions 45-13

5 USC at Cal
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, ABC
USC -17
An underrated matchup between the Trojans and Golden Bears. Cal has already taken down an ACC and SEC team en route to a 3-0 start. USC needed a bit of a miracle to come back against Texas, but still remains the team to beat in the Pac-12. This one kicks off at 12:30 local time. Consider the Trojans on upset alert. Trojans 34-31

16 TCU at 6 Oklahoma State
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Oklahoma State -12.5
The high-powered Pokes are one of the scariest offenses in the nation. Through three games, OSU has outscored its opponents 59-0 IN THE FIRST QUARTER! TCU gave up 36 to SMU last weekend. Good luck, Frogs. Pokes 49-24

7 Washington at Colorado
Saturday, 10 pm ET, FS1
Washington -12
A rematch of last year's Pac-12 title game, the Huskies look to remain in the Top 10 and the firm leader in the North. Colorado has other plans and is upset it's not getting respect in the rankings. Phillip Lindsay will go over 140 yards for the third time this year and the Buffaloes score the upset. Buffs 33-28

8 Michigan at Purdue
Saturday, 4 pm ET, Fox
Michigan -10.5
Jeff Brohm has reinvigorated the Boilermakers to the point that this is actually a tricky spot for Michigan. The Wolverines are struggling mightily on offense. If Purdue can create a turnover or pile on some points early, watch out. Boilers 31-27

9 Wisconsin - OFF

UNLV at 10 Ohio State
Saturday, Noon ET, Big Ten
Ohio State -40
One of the few matchups this weekend to turn your eyes away from. Buckeyes 56-10

 Must Watch
NC State at 12 Florida State
Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN2/ABC
Florida State -11.5
The Noles are back on the field for the first time since falling to Bama in Atlanta. FSU endured Hurricane Irma and its effects. In case you need a reminder, quarterback Deondre Francois is out for the season and in steps freshman James Blackman. Preseason expectations were squashed for NC State when the Wolfpack dropped their opener against South Carolina. Despite playing Marshall and Furman since, it hasn't been all rainbows and unicorns. Will FSU be sluggish? Can NC State score an upset in Tallahassee? Noles 26-17

 GAME OF THE WEEK
UGA (right) is the most well-known of the Bulldogs.
But Bully hay have something to bark about this weekend.
17 Mississippi State at 11 Georgia
Saturday, 7 pm ET, ESPN
Georgia -4
The battle of the SEC Bulldogs should be a good one. Mississippi State pulled off a stunner last week against LSU, not so much beating the Tigers, but how they did so: 37-7. Nick Fitzgerald's veteran leadership will be relied upon for MSU going Between the Hedges. That's where MSU has the advantage. Georgia, despite playing at home, has freshman Jake Fromm under center. He impressed in the road win at Notre Dame and has five TDs to one INT on the year. There's a good chance UGA lets its Big Dawgs eat and tries to play keep-away. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are averaging over six yards per carry. If Georgia can't put it in the end zone, though, it could be a long night in Athens. MSU Bulldogs 30-24

 20 Florida at Kentucky
Saturday, 7:30 pm ET, SEC
Florida -2.5
Why are you tuning in? Because Kentucky is 3-0 and Mark Stoops may have his best Wildcats team yet. Oh, and Florida has won 30 straight games against UK. That seems impossible. Will the streak continue? Cats 17-13

UCLA at Stanford
Saturday, 10:30 pm ET, ESPN
Stanford -7.5
Two Pac-12 teams walked into Group of 5 stadiums a week ago and stumbled away with deflating losses. UCLA, which lost to Memphis, and Stanford, which fell at San Diego State, now face off in a must-win California battle. The Bruins need a defense to back Josh Rosen (and they need Rosen to be sharper than he has been). The Cardinal are probably just happy to be home after spending the first three weeks in the air and on the road (vs. Rice in Australia, at USC, and at SDSU). Since Stanford already has a conference loss, this game holds slightly more importance for the Cardinal. If UCLA does go down, the heat will be turned all the way up on Jim Mora. Cardinal 35-30

Keep An Eye On
Texas Tech at Houston
Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN2/ABC
Houston -7
Texas Tech is brutal on defense yet again. The Red Raiders gave up 45 points to Arizona State. Luckily, the Sun Devils are equally as bad on D and Tech got the win, 52-45. On the road at Houston in an early game (11 AM kick local time), against a Coug team hungry for another Big 12 win, this could spell the end of the Kingsbury era in Lubbock. Cougars 55-45

 Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN
Texas A&M -2.5
Like their West Texas counterparts, the Aggies too could see the beginning of the end of their head coach if they go down in Jerry World. When these two get together, it's always an exciting game. Arkansas had the week off to regroup following its loss to TCU. A&M needed a second half comeback to take down Louisiana-Lafayette, and even then Kevin Sumlin's seat hasn't cooled. The quarterback battle will be interesting to watch. Austin Allen is one of the league's better passers. Kellen Mond is trying to prove his worth for the Aggies. Arkansas is due in the series. Hogs 27-20

Duke at North Carolina
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, ESPNU
Duke -1
If it was basketball, this is Must Watch material, probably Game of the Week. Alas, the Tobacco Road Rivalry doesn't quite have the same shine on the field as it does on the court. Duke has impressed early on, while North Carolina picked up its first win a week ago. Daniel Jones is the next David Cutcliffe prodigy and he has Duke on the rise in the ACC. Blue Devils 44-37

 Notre Dame at Michigan State
Saturday, 8 pm ET, Fox
Notre Dame -3
Another big game that is usually the game to be watching, ND and MSU have taken quite a few steps backward from their recent glory days. The oddsmakers have the Irish as a road favorite, which is surprising only because that tells me they don't have faith in Mark Dantonio anymore. Irish 24-21

-BtW
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Sunday, November 6, 2016

The Morning After... Blowout Saturday

Artavis Scott caught one of Nick Scheussler's two TD passes.
Scott saluted military personnel in the stands
on Military Appreciation Day at Clemson.
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)
1) Clemson's 54-0 win over Syracuse was about as complete a performance you'll see. The Tigers's offense was in sync, gaining 195 yards on the ground and 370 through the air. The defense was fast, physical, and slowed down the Orange uptempo spread offense. Clemson pitched a shutout and scored a defensive TD with a pick-6 by redshirt freshman Tanner Muse, who isn't listed on the Tigers' depth chart. There were two areas of concern - first, Deshaun Watson left with a shoulder injury late in the second quarter. It's been reported his injury was just a bruise and Watson could have returned if needed. With a 30-0 halftime lead, it was unnecessary. In relief, Nick Schuessler was brilliant. The career backup was 11-of-17 for 177 yards and two touchdowns.

The second area of concern was special teams. Clemson missed a PAT, a FG, and allowed a long kickoff return. There may have been a lack of focus in some areas with the game out of hand, but the mistakes need to be corrected. It's hard to get upset with Greg Huegel missing a 40-yard field goal after he went 3-for-3 including a clutch 46-yarder last week at Florida State. Consistency needs to improve for the young kicker.

2) With little to discuss in a 54-0 game, I figured I'd give my take on the Ben Boulware suplex tackle. No whistles had blown, the offensive player was still fighting for yards, and Boulware was doing all he could to get the guy to the ground. Was it a forceful takedown? Sure. But the referee's reported explanation of why he was penalized was because "he tackled him too hard." What does that even mean, too hard? Is he supposed to hit him with a pillow and hope he falls? Look, I'm on the side of the medical analysts who are looking out for players and injuries to their heads because CTE is real, but to say a tackle was "too hard" and THAT be the reason for the flag is pitiful.

3) It's become clear that one of two scenarios is playing out with Clemson's running game. Either Wayne Gallman doesn't have his heart 100% into this season or the Tigers aren't very good at run blocking. In a game where everything went Clemson's way, the Tigers averaged just 4.4 yards per carry. Now, 4.4 yards per carry gets you a first down every three carries, I get that. But the Tigers are averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the entire season. Gallman averaged 6.3 yards per carry (10 rushes for 63 yards), but he had one 30-yard gain. In a shortened day, he had nine carries for 33 yards (3.7 ypc). Clemson's not getting it done on the ground and Gallman has had far too many games with only 10-12 carries.

4) The win sets up a chance for Clemson to accomplish several things next weekend when Pitt visits Death Valley. First, Clemson can win 10 games for the sixth straight season, matching only Alabama for current active streaks (assuming Bama beats Mississippi State next weekend). Second, Clemson will clinch the Atlantic Division title for the second straight season. And last, a win next week would assure the Tigers a spot in the AP Top 5 for the 20th consecutive poll. Previously, Clemson's longest streak inside the AP Top 5 was eight weeks during the 1981 season.

5) More impressive stats: Clemson has begun the season 9-0 for just the fourth time in school history and the second straight season. The other seasons were 1948 under Frank Howard when Clemson finished 11-0 and 1981 under Danny Ford, the Tigers' lone National Championship season when they finished 12-0. Last season, Clemson took a 14-0 record into the National Championship game before losing to Alabama, 45-40. ... Clemson has won 46 straight against unranked teams (AP Poll), 23 straight regular season games, 21 straight at home and 15 straight ACC games. ... Clemson is now 23-1 since the start of the 2015 season. That is tied with Alabama for the best record in that time.

6) It seems long ago - it was only Thursday - when Oklahoma won at Iowa State. Thursday games do that to you, but the Sooners went up to Ames on a short week and came away with a double-digit win over a team that had played Baylor, Oklahoma State and Kansas State all within a one-possession score. The reason to keep your eyes on the Sooners is two-fold: 1) OU could run the table and finish 10-2 with nine straight wins and be a conference champion. 2) Dede Westbrook is the best receiver in football. Over his past six games, he's hauled in 12 touchdown receptions, has 1,011 receiving yards, and has a punt return for a TD.

7) On a day when most of the games ended like Clemson's 54-0 rout, there were only a few things that stood out. Texas A&M losing at Mississippi State could not have been seen by anyone. The Aggies were 10-point favorites on the road and faced a 3-5 MSU team that had lost to South Alabama. Needless to say, A&M will be falling far from the CFB Playoff Top 4. ... Staying in the SEC, the East is about as muddled and less than mediocre as ever. Florida, the top team in the East, fell 31-10 at Arkansas. Kentucky had a chance to take over the top spot, but lost to middling Georgia at home. And somehow, South Carolina is technically in the SEC East race after beginning the season 2-4. The Gamecocks have to win at Florida this weekend and hope a lot of other things happen. But in a season when this is how we've gotten here, why not?

7B) Alabama and LSU were scoreless through three quarters, but it was evident the Crimson Tide were close to breaking through several times. Bama missed a field goal, was stuffed on fourth-and-goal from the one, and had several other chances in Tiger territory. The 10-0 isn't impressive in terms of blowout numbers, but Alabama was the much better team. Not hard to believe considering LSU is now 5-3 and very well could end up 5-6 with games against Arkansas, Florida, and Texas A&M still to come. For Alabama, all eyes are now on the Iron Bowl.

8) Texas outlasted Texas Tech on the road, enhancing the chances the Longhorns reach bowl eligibility. D'Onta Foreman had a career day with 341 yards and three touchdowns. Foreman has 1,446 yards on 206 carries (7.0 ypc) and 13 touchdowns. It's sad that he plays at Texas or he would likely be the frontrunner for the Heisman. ...  In other Big 12 action, Oklahoma State rallied to beat Kansas State, 43-37. The Cowboys (7-2) remain in control of their destiny in the Big 12, needing to win out against Texas Tech, TCU and Oklahoma to claim the conference crown. ... The black cloud over Waco got even darker this weekend. People inside the Baylor bubble might be some of the most idiotic. I feel sorry for Jim Grobe having to deal with the mess he's in. If I were him, I'd tell those people to shove it. Oh, Baylor lost at home to rival TCU, 62-22, while wearing all black uniforms and fans dressing in black to show support for Art Briles. YUCK!

9) Conference races are heating up with just a few weeks to go. Here are the teams with a realistic shot of winning their divisions/conferences:
ACC Atlantic - Clemson, Louisville
ACC Coastal - Virginia Tech, North Carolina
Big 12 - Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Big Ten East - Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Big Ten West - Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota
Pac-12 North - Washington, Washington State
Pac-12 South - Colorado, USC, Utah
SEC East - Everyone except Vandy and Mizzou
SEC West - Alabama, Auburn

10) Pitt lost at Miami 51-28 Saturday and has back-to-back losses after starting the year 5-3, one win from bowl eligibility. Another long trip south for the Panthers. Give them another long trip back home. Beat Pitt.
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Friday, November 27, 2015

PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 13

We've arrived at Rivalry Week. After going 22-8 the past two weeks, I'm feeling some confidence as we enter the home stretch before bowl season. This week should be fun. Tons of great games, ranked matchups, and sure-to-be upsets with rivalries taking the stage. The slate is filled with both in-state and cross-border rivalry games (rivalry nicknames in italics below), so many more to choose from than normal. I'll give it my best!

Last week's record: 12-3
Overall: 57-22 (.722 win %)
*Rankings below are CFB Playoff Committee rankings

Friday
No. 15 Navy at Houston (Line: Navy -4)
No rivalry to speak of here, but an important game nonetheless. The first of several winner-take-all battles this weekend takes place in Houston. Navy, whose only loss is to Notre Dame, will earn its first trip to the AAC Championship Game with a win. Houston suffered a major setback with its loss at UConn last week, but can also clinch the AAC West title with a win. Keenan Reynolds has perfected the art of the triple-option offense and has the Midshipmen eyeing a unprecedented New Year's Six Bowl appearance. Navy 38, Houston 27

No. 4 Iowa at Nebraska (Line: Iowa -2)
Battle for the Heroes Trophy (Series: Nebraska leads 29-13-3)
Nebraska has won three of the four matchups since the Huskers joined the Big Ten, including an overtime thriller at Iowa a year ago. Iowa hopes to keep its perfect season alive and remain in contention for a Playoff berth. A loss in Lincoln would be tough to overcome (or would it Michigan State?). The Huskers could be the only team to knock off both the Hawkeyes and Spartans. Meh, maybe not. Iowa 35, Nebraska 20

No. 20 Washington State at Washington (Line: Washington -7)
The Apple Cup (Series: Washington leads 69-32-6)
This one has surprise written all over it, as the Cougars are 8-3 and poised for a 10-win season if they can beat Washington and win a bowl game. The game, however, is in Seattle and the Huskies are looking to becoming bowl eligible. WSU QB Luke Falk is questionable after suffering a concussion a week ago. Still, Mike Leach's teams love to sling it and UW has been flaky this season (flaky enough to give head coach Chris Petersen a two-year extension Thursday). Washington State 38, Washington 34

 Oregon State at No. 17 Oregon (Line: Oregon -36)
The Civil War (Series: Oregon leads 62-46-10)
The Ducks have looked much improved since the return of Vernon Adams Jr., winning five in a row to climb back into the rankings. Oregon knocked off Stanford two weeks ago and blew out USC last week. The line on this one is all you need to know. Oregon 62, Oregon State 17

No. 7 Baylor at No. 19 TCU (Line: TCU -1.5)
The Revivalry (Series: Baylor leads 52-51-7)
This one was circled on Big 12 calendars throughout Texas. And then Seth Russell went down. So did Trevone Boykin. And Josh Doctson. And both teams have lost (TCU twice). Baylor needs this more than the Frogs to keep its conference hopes alive. The Bears have won each of the past two meetings by three points, including last year's 61-58 barn-burner. Both teams have gone to their third-string quarterbacks, but Chris Johnson looks more like Cardale Jones. We'll see how good Boykin is in his return. Baylor 41, TCU 27

 Saturday
No. 1 Clemson at South Carolina (Line: Clemson -17)
The Palmetto Bowl (Series: Clemson leads 66-42-4)
On paper, this shouldn't be close. Clemson is one of the most balanced, dominant teams in the game. Meanwhile, South Carolina's only win since Steve Spurrier left is over Vanderbilt. However, the Gamecocks' four losses sans Spurrier have all been by 10 points or less. They're a feisty bunch, but facing a Heisman hopeful QB and a team determined to not let anyone get in its way is a monumental task. It's a rivalry game. It's at South Carolina. This will be Shawn Elliott's last game as SC's head coach. Throw out the record books. Yada yada. Closer than the experts think. Clemson 40, South Carolina 24

Georgia at Georgia Tech (Line: Georgia -4)
Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate (Series; Georgia leads 64-40-5)
Another in-state rivalry game that on paper looks like a mismatch. But Georgia Tech's triple option offense evens the scales a bit. Mark Richt could very well be coaching for his job in this one. After the season the Dawgs have had, losing a second straight game to the Yellow Jackets might be the end of a pretty good run at UGA for Richt. Georgia 34, Georgia Tech 28

Louisville at Kentucky (Line: Louisville -4.5)
The Governor's Cup (Series: Kentucky leads 14-13)
These two Bluegrass State schools are more known for their battle on the hardwood, but the fierce rivalry extends to the gridiron. Louisville is currently riding a four-game winning streak in the series. The Cats won four in a row prior to that, and the Cards won four in a row before that. Which Louisville team will show up Saturday? And can Kentucky get to bowl eligibility under Mark Stoops? Louisville 24, Kentucky 14

No. 8 Ohio State at No. 10 Michigan (Line: Ohio State -1)
The Game (Series: Michigan leads 58-46-6)
Ohio State had its 23-game winning streak snapped last week - and then all hell broke loose in the Buckeyes locker room. Now, they head to the Big House. Yikes. Michigan has won four in a row to keep its Big Ten East Division hopes alive. The Wolverines are perhaps the most complete team Ohio State will face this season. And we saw what Michigan State did to them last week. I'll take the coach who's smashing Buckeye nuts on Bo Schembechler's grave. Michigan 20, Ohio State 17

Virginia Tech at Virginia (Line: Virginia Tech -3.5)
The Commonwealth Cup (Series: VT leads 54-37-5)
Virginia Tech has won 11 in a row in this series and looks to send Frank Beamer out with one more win over the Cavaliers. Beamer is 19-9 against UVA. The Hokies are favored, but Virginia played its best game a week ago in a win over Duke. Sometimes you just have to go with history and history tells us this game belongs to Beamer. Virginia Tech 21, Virginia 10

Penn State at No. 5 Michigan State (Line: Michigan State -11)
Battle for the Land Grant Trophy (Series: Tied 14-14-1)
My how the Big Ten world turned with one kick. Ohio State was the defending champs and headed toward another College Football Playoff. Then, Sparty happened. Michigan State has defeated Michigan and Ohio State on the road and led for exactly 0:00 of game time. Don't expect the Spartans to get tripped up. MSU is on its way to Indianapolis and Mark Dantonio can proclaim he has the best program in the Big Ten. Michigan State 31, Penn State 13

No. 14 North Carolina at NC State (Line: North Carolina -5.5)
Carolina-State Game (Series: North Carolina leads 65-33-6)
North Carolina isn't getting a lot of respect for myriad reasons. But the Heels have looked as good as anyone in the country and Gene Chizik has done a 180 with the defense. Look out. NC State is much better than its 7-4 record. Remember, too, the Wolfpack dropkicked UNC last year, 35-7. This one's in Raleigh and the Pack can spoil a great season for the baby blues. NC State 38, North Carolina 35

No. 2 Alabama at Auburn (Line: Alabama -14.5)
The Iron Bowl (Series: Alabama leads 43-35-1)
Two years ago was the "Kick 6." Auburn went on to play for a national title and it appeared the tide (pun intended) had turned in the SEC West. Then, Alabama dropped 55 points on the Tigers last year and now Auburn limps in with a 6-5 record. Derrick Henry is a beast and Alabama's defense has been great against some mediocre offenses. But the Tide, in my eyes, aren't as other-worldly as everyone proclaims. Alabama 33, Auburn 26

No. 22 UCLA at USC (Line: USC -3)
The Crosstown Rivalry (Series: USC leads 44-31-7)
Figure these two teams out. UCLA starts the year 4-0 and looks like it could be a factor. Then, the Bruins went 4-3 with losses to Arizona State at home and at Stanford and Washington State. USC, on the other hand, lost early to Stanford, then Washington, then Notre Dame before reeling off four straight wins including a stunner against Utah. The Trojans, though, were blown out by Oregon last week, so who knows with these two teams. It's at USC, but the Bruins have won three in a row and none have been close. UCLA 41, USC 28

 No. 18 Ole Miss at No. 21 Mississippi State (Line: Ole Miss -1)
The Egg Bowl (Series: Ole Miss leads 62-43-6)
Aside from running into a brick wall against Alabama, Mississippi State has been on a roll on offense and Dak Prescott is at the center of it all. He's playing his final game in Starkville and is looking to atone for the upset that took place a season ago. Chad Kelly and Ole Miss picked up momentum with their win over LSU last week. The cowbells will be ringing loud in what could be another classic Egg Bowl. Mississippi State 43, Ole Miss 42

No. 13 Florida State at No. 12 Florida (Line: Florida State -2.5)
The Florida Cup (Florida leads 34-23-2)
FSU has won four of the last five in this series and goes up against an offensively-challenged Gator team in The Swamp. In two of its past three games, Florida needed a last-minute field goal to beat Vanderbilt, 9-7, and was taken to overtime by Florida Atlantic before prevailing 20-14. Dalvin Cook can up his Heisman candidacy with a solid game against the Gators' vaunted defense. Jim McElwain tried to light a fire under his team by calling them out for a lack of emotion. There will be plenty of that flowing in this one. Florida State 24, Florida 13

Texas A&M at LSU (Line: LSU -5.5)
(Series: LSU leads 30-20-3)
Could this be Les Miles' last game at Tiger Stadium? Who would've thought that before this season? Well, Miles has a way of getting the best out of his players when their backs are against the wall and questions are abound. Add in that the Aggies only wins since Oct. 17 are against South Carolina, Western Carolina and Vanderbilt, and it's easy to see Texas A&M is a fraud despite its 8-3 record. Leonard Fournette should have a big game. LSU 38, Texas A&M 20

No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 9 Stanford (Line: Stanford -4)
The Legends Trophy (Series: Notre Dame leads 19-10)
The game everyone has waited for to finally see whether Notre Dame is worth a darn or not. We know they barely lost to Clemson, but that's been about all the Irish can proclaim to this point. Stanford has been led by Heisman contender Christian McCaffrey, who looks the part of the best all-around football player. A win here and next week in the Pac-12 title game over UCLA or USC at the very least puts the Cardinal back in the conversation for a Playoff. They just need chaos to ensue ahead of them. Stanford 35, Notre Dame 28

When it comes to OU-OSU, expect, well, bedlam.
(Photo courtesy tvnooz.com)
No. 3 Oklahoma at No. 11 Oklahoma State (Line: Oklahoma -7)
Bedlam (Series: Oklahoma leads 84-18-7)
Four of the past five Bedlam games have produced some of the wackiest results. I guess that's why they call it Bedlam. The Sooners jumped into the Playoff Top 4 in this week's rankings and can solidify their spot with a third straight win over a ranked opponent (second on the road). OSU was exposed by Baylor last week and simply does not have a running game. The weather is expected to be cold and wet, possibly freezing rain/sleet/who knows what else. That bodes well for the Crimson and Cream machine of Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. Oklahoma 27, Oklahoma State 21
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Friday, November 13, 2015

PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 11

Not a good week picking games last week, so I expect a big bounce-back week. College football can be crazy and November is the time for it to go bonkers. Five of the 11 undefeated teams fell last week. It's another big week with several ranked matchups and other intriguing battles which should provide some clarity for the Playoff picture.

 Last week's record: 6-7
Overall: 35-14
*Rankings below are CFB Playoff Committee rankings

 No. 3 Ohio State at Illinois (Line: Ohio State -16.5)
After a game suspension, JT Barrett is back to start at quarterback for the Buckeyes. This is the last tuneup for Ohio State before closing the season with the Michigan schools. Early kickoff, on the road, trying to get back in rhythm ... all factors that could lead to a slow start in Champaign. Ohio State 34, Illinois 17

No. 11 Florida at South Carolina (Line: Florida -7.5)
The Gators clinched the SEC East last week despite their offense managing very little against the Commodores. This game would be of much more interest if Steve Spurrier was still coaching the Gamecocks. Florida should be able to score on South Carolina, but the feeling here is the Gamecocks, which beat the Gators in Gainesville last year, won't be a pushover. Florida 23, South Carolina 20

Georgia at Auburn (Line: Auburn -1.5)
Not the game everyone expected back in August, is it? Georgia and Auburn were to contend for the SEC, but neither is ranked and the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry has no meaning in the conference race. Auburn got a big win at Texas A&M last week and should carry that momentum back home. Georgia also scored a much-needed win over Kentucky to fan the flames on the "Fire Mark Richt" crowd. Which team needs it more? Tough to call... Auburn 27, Georgia 23

No. 1 Clemson at Syracuse (Line: Clemson -28)
Clemson looks to have a clear path to the College Football Playoff. At the very least, last week's win over Florida State should give the Tigers some breathing room until a potential matchup with North Carolina in the ACC title game. This is a game Clemson needs to open up the offense, clamp down on defense, and do whatever it wants in the Carrier Dome. If the Tigers are for real, they should roll over the 'Cuse, which has lost six straight games. Anything less than a sixth straight 500-yard performance would be a disappointment. Clemson 55, Syracuse 10

No. 2 Alabama at No. 17 Mississippi State (Line: Alabama -8)
The Crimson Tide had two weeks to think about LSU and Leonard Fournette. They heard about the running back 'til it made them sick. And they completely manhandled the Tigers last Saturday. This is the classic hangover game - on the road against a team starting to get on a roll and is doing so behind the best quarterback in the conference in Dak Prescott. Oh yeah, those cowbells will be ringing louder than ever. Upset of the week in Starkvegas. Mississippi State 31, Alabama 18

 Wake Forest at No. 4 Notre Dame (Line: Notre Dame -27)
To be honest, I pick all the Top 10 teams games, which is why this one makes the cut. But it won't be close. Notre Dame might need to find a waterboy to play at some point, as the Irish keep losing starters to injury. The most recent, running back CJ Prosise, who cleared concussion protocol and is expected to be on the sidelines Saturday ready to go. He should stay there, though. This one shouldn't be close. Notre Dame 49, Wake Forest 7

No. 8 Oklahoma State at Iowa State (Line: Oklahoma State -14)
Remember 2011, when undefeated Oklahoma State made a trip to Ames? The Cowboys left with a loss, and ultimately helped lead the demise of the BCS. That was four years ago. This is now. And now, the Cowboys are coming off their biggest win of the season in which they forced four turnovers and scored four touchdowns of 48 yards or longer. The quarterback duo of JW Walsh and Mason Rudolph is enough to keep teams honest. Despite the Cyclones knocking off Texas two weeks ago at home, 24-0, Oklahoma State has much more to play for and has a chip on its shoulder thanks to a lower-than-expected ranking by the Playoff Committee. Oklahoma State 59, Iowa State 17

 No. 14 Michigan at Indiana (Line: Michigan -13)
Indiana has come oh so close to knocking off the big boys in the Big Ten. Losers of five straight, this is the last chance to take down a powerhouse. Michigan was given new life in the East division when Nebraska upset Michigan State. Big Blue needs another Spartan loss and to win out. Jake Rudock was sharp against Rutgers last week with over 300 yards and two TDs through the air. Another performance like that will lead to another big Wolverine win. Michigan 37, Indiana 24

 Miami at No. 23 North Carolina (Line: North Carolina -13)
What exactly did Miami's eight-lateral win over Duke mean? For one, it sets up a chance for the Canes to take down the ACC Coastal's top dog and creep closer to a berth in the ACC Championship game. Marquise Williams and the Tar Heels are playing their best ball of the season, though. Knowing what Clemson did to Miami earlier, this one should scare Hurricanes fans. A win by the Heels and a Pitt win at Duke sends UNC to the title game in December. North Carolina 45, Miami 27

 No. 21 Memphis at No. 24 Houston (Line: Houston -7)
This game lost a little luster when Memphis was blown out by Navy last week. Houston is still in line for a perfect season, but this is their toughest test to date, at least by record (the Cougars defeated Louisville on the road in the second game of the year). Memphis can remain in the hunt for the AAC West hunt, but still needs the Midshipmen to fall twice in their final three conference games. Houston, on the other hand, needs this win to improve its résumé for a potential New Year's Six Bowl. These two offensive teams could provide fireworks. Houston 47, Memphis 44

 Arkansas at No. 9 LSU (Line: LSU -7.5)
How will LSU and Leonard Fournette bounce back from their disappointing performance at Alabama? Well, last year the Tigers followed up a tough loss to the Tide by getting shutout by Arkansas, 17-0. The good news this time around is LSU returns home for a night game. The bad news is Arkansas is has strung together three wins in a row and is riding momentum from the season's latest installment of "How did they win that game?!" Is that an upset brewing on the bayou? Nope, just whole roasted hog. LSU 24, Arkansas 17

 Oregon at No. 7 Stanford (Line: Stanford -10)
Another matchup that in the preseason looked to have more at stake than it does now. The Ducks just don't have the same quack as in years past, although they can still light up the scoreboard. Stanford has looked like the best team in the Pac-12 behind Heisman contender Christian McCaffrey. The Cardinal's schedule sets up nicely with three straight at home against rivals Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame. Oregon is still dangerous and still has playmakers on offense, but Stanford is the more complete team. Stanford 38, Oregon 30

 Minnesota at No. 5 Iowa (Line: Iowa -11.5)
As mentioned in another post, Iowa keeps winning and proving doubters wrong. Clearly the Committee thinks highly of the Hawkeyes, placing Iowa just outside the Top 4 this week after ranking them ninth in the initial rankings. Minnesota pulled the interim tag and named Tracy Claeys its permanent head coach. The Gophers still don't have enough to keep up with an undefeated Hawkeyes team. The only game remaining that could be an upset is the trip to Lincoln at the end of the season. Leading up to it, Iowa continues to do Iowa things. Iowa 21, Minnesota 10

 No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 6 Baylor (Line: Baylor -2.5)
Can Baker Mayfield lead OU to an upset of Baylor?
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)
The Sooner Schooner rolls down I-35 full steam ahead with hopes of ending a drought in Waco - the Sooners have lost their last two trips to Baylor and three of four overall. Bears QB Jarrett Stidham was impressive in his first collegiate start on the road against Kansas State. This is a whole different ballgame, though, as ESPN's College GameDay will be in town and McLane Stadium will provide as electric an atmosphere as ever. Baker Mayfield has the Sooners humming - OU is averaging 58 points per game in its last four outings. Defensively, Oklahoma is playing the best of any Big 12 team and will give Baylor its biggest test. The intriguing matchups all over the field should make this one fun to watch. And if one team goes up by 21, don't turn the channel. Waco is about to get wacky. Oklahoma 56, Baylor 51

 No. 10 Utah at Arizona (Line: Utah -6)
Utah might be the forgotten one-loss team, just kind of sitting there while the talk revolves around other teams looking to remain in Playoff contention. A tricky trip to the desert for the Utes, who have impressed since an ugly loss at USC. Utah remains on top of the Pac-12 South and is eyeing a chance to win the conference crown. Arizona might have something to say about that. The Wildcats have lost three straight and need to beat either Utah or Arizona State on the road to reach bowl eligibility. The way the Utes are playing, that might be another week. Utah 37, Arizona 31
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