PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 5

BENched took a few chances and they went awry. It's early in the season, so that was expected. You live and learn and move forward. Going to try something a little different this week with the picks. Let's do it!

2017 Record

Overall: 55-16 (.775 win %)
Last Week: 9-8
Game of the Week Pick: 2-2

*Rankings below reflect the AP Top 25

AP Top 10
Ole Miss at 1 Alabama
Saturday, 9 pm ET, ESPN
Alabama -27

Remember when the Rebels were a thorn in Nick Saban's side? They won't be again for a long, long time. Tide 51-12

GAME OF THE WEEK

Can the Tigers survive Lane Stadium?

2 Clemson at 12 Virginia Tech
Saturday, 8 pm ET, ABC
Clemson -7.5
We've arrived at the exact week of the season when I picked against Clemson one year ago. I took Louisville to down the Tigers last season. Fortunately, I was wrong. A year later, you'd think I'd've learned my lesson. I simply feel like this Hokie team is different. Yes, Josh Jackson is a freshman quarterback going against the best defensive line in the country. Yes, Clemson is battle-tested, having already defeated two Top-15 teams. Yes, Kelly Bryant played cool, calm, and collected in his first road start. But something feels much different than two weeks ago at Louisville. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic about my team. I don't have an Xs and Os breakdown of why I think Virginia Tech will win. To be honest, Clemson making it through September 4-1 would be a really good thing. If they are 5-0 after Saturday night, we could really be in for Bama-Clemson III. For now, I'll pull the reins back. Hokies 20-17

(NOTE: After I typed this Thursday evening, I received my IPTAY package in the mail Friday afternoon and am having serious second thoughts. Perhaps that was a good omen? We'll see.)

3 Oklahoma - BYE

Indiana at 4 Penn State
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, Big Ten
Penn State -18
It would not be surprising to see Penn State have a bit of a hangover following last week's thrilling win at Iowa. Getting Indiana at home for that hangover game helps. Lions 31-16

5 USC at 16 Washington State
Friday, 10:30 pm ET, ESPN
USC -5
I'm sensing either a wild shootout on the Palouse or a Friday night stinker. Wazzu is the trendy pick. I like Luke Falk slightly more than Sam Darnold right now. Statistically, Falk's having a much better season than the guy that's getting the Heisman love. I'm just not convinced the Cougs are ready to show out in primetime. Trojans 38-28

6 Washington at Oregon State
Saturday, 8 pm ET, Pac-12
Washington -26.5
Can't see this one being much of a game. The Huskies took it to Colorado last week. Expect even worse for the Beavs. Dawgs 52-7

7 Georgia at Tennessee
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, CBS
Georgia -7.5
The Georgia-Tennessee game has been decided by eight points or less each of the past six years. Expect it to be close. Tennessee is winless in its last 24 games against teams ranked in the Top 10 since 2008. Expect Georgia to make it 0-25. Other Dawgs 34-27

8 Michigan - BYE

9 TCU - BYE

Northwestern at 10 Wisconsin
Saturday, Noon ET, ABC
Wisconsin -14.5
Somehow, this game will be low scoring and close because Big Ten football. Badgers 21-9

Must Watch
14 Miami at Duke
Friday, 7 pm ET, ESPN
Miami -6.5
Get your weekend started with an enticing matchup between two undefeated ACC Coastal schools. The Hurricanes found new life in the second half last week against Toledo. Duke used a balanced attack to knock off rival North Carolina. Both teams are looking to get a leg up in the standings. As much as I'd like to pick Duke and think David Cutcliffe has this team squarely in contention, Miami has too many weapons. Canes 34-20

15 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Saturday, 8pm ET, Fox
Oklahoma State -10.5
It seems like no matter what, Oklahoma State can't lose to Texas Tech. A night game in Lubbock is no cakewalk, though. Tortillas will be flying as will the football through the air. I'm guessing this one will be pretty high-scoring. Get your popcorn ready. Pokes 58-45

Keep An Eye On
Florida State at Wake Forest
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, ABC
Florida State -7.5
How odd is it that we have winless Florida State visiting undefeated Wake Forest? FSU's troubles are highly concerning. No one can block up front and I wasn't overly impressed with freshman quarterback James Blackman. Wake may be able to get a steal here, but I'm sticking with the Noles to finally get a W. Noles 27-20

24 Mississippi State at 13 Auburn
Saturday, 6 pm ET, ESPN
Auburn -9
So maybe Mississippi State isn't that good after all. And maybe Auburn's offense just needed to be completely healthy. Either way, this one could get ugly on the Plains. Auburn 40-17

Cal at Oregon
Saturday, 10:30 pm ET, FS1
Oregon -15
Cal took USC to the brink and Oregon had trouble stopping Arizona State. It is full-on #Pac12AfterDark in Eugene. Ducks 45-42

-BtW

The Morning After... A Wild, Winning Weekend!

Dabo Swinney celebrates Clemson's first win at Georgia Tech since 2003.
(Photo courtesy Clemson Football)

1) When you haven't won at Historic Grant Field at Bobby Dodd Stadium since 2003, and you leave the 2016 game with a 19-point victory, you feel extremely great about yourself. Only, Clemson fans felt only half great. While the first half looked like what Tiger fans have come to expect - leading 23-0 at the break - the second half was ho-hum. Clemson struggled to finish. Clemson went vanilla at least on offense. Could the Tigers have been holding back with Louisville coming up next?

2) Clemson's defense looks better than I can remember, even the past two years where over 15 players have been drafted to the NFL. The Tigers have played 240 minutes of football so far this season and have had arguably 8-10 "bad" defensive minutes - the last three at Auburn, the last five vs. Troy, and the one scoring drive against Georgia Tech. Clemson has allowed five touchdowns in four games and is giving up 11 points per game.

3) Brent Venables is the second greatest thing at Clemson. Maybe the first. But the first is Deshaun Watson.

3B) Ray-Ray McCloud is emerging as a star. McCloud has been the most consistent receiver outside of Mike Williams through four games for the Tigers. He had a career-high eight catches for 101 yards at GT. He is tied with Williams to lead Clemson with 21 receptions and is 51 yards behind him in total yards.

3C) It was great to see tight end Jordan Leggett get involved. Leggett had one catch coming into Thursday, but produced four receptions and a TD. He has been a missing piece to the Tiger offense and will be needed the rest of the season.

4) How 'bout the little ole ACC? Outside of the conference games - Clemson-GT, Pitt-UNC - the conference went undefeated (8-0) on the weekend. The surprising wins were Duke knocking off Notre Dame in South Bend 38-35, Virginia beating Central Michigan 49-35, Syracuse won at UConn 31-24 and Wake Forest remaining unbeaten with a 33-28 win at Indiana. All four schools were 3-point underdogs or bigger, with Duke a 20.5-point dog to the Irish, and three of the games were on the road (UVa was home). Combined with big wins by Louisville, FSU and Virginia Tech, this was a great weekend for a conference on the rise.

5) Speaking of Louisville, the Cards romped past Marshall 59-28 in a game that wasn't that close. However, for the first time this season Lamar Jackson looked a little less like Superman. He still finished with seven touchdowns (5 passing, 2 rushing), but was 24-of-44 passing and threw an ill-advised interception. The Thundering Herd kept him in check on the ground, allowing him just 62 yards. Louisville only led 7-0 after one quarter. It was one of those games where the Cardinals dominated, but didn't necessarily look perfect doing so. The guess here is they had one eye looking toward Clemson.

6) Some of the wildness began Friday with Utah scoring with 55 seconds left to beat USC 31-27 and continued into Saturday. ... Tennessee finally got the monkey of its back by beating Florida after trailing 21-0. ... North Carolina trailed Pitt by 13 with under 10 minutes to go, but scored twice including the game-winner with two seconds on the clock. ... Les Miles' poor clock management skills bit him and LSU again. The Tigers needed a TD with no timeouts left. They failed to get out of bounds, were penalized and had a 10-second runoff, then did not have enough time to get a snap off - even though the refs initially allowed it and LSU scored the would-be go-ahead touchdown. After review, the clock was triple-zeroes and Auburn won 18-13. ... In the nightcaps, Stanford scored with under 30 seconds to go to take a three-point lead over UCLA. Keep in mind, Stanford was a 3.5-point favorite. UCLA QB Josh Rosen was sacked on the last play of the game and fumbled. Stanford ran it back for a TD to make the final score 22-13. A humongous play for Vegas betting. ... Arizona and Washington traded blows late in the fourth quarter for some amazing #Pac12AfterDark action. Zona scored with 4:50 to go to tie it at 21; Washington re-took the lead 40 seconds later; Zona scored with 27 seconds to go to send it to overtime; And the Huskies eventually won in OT, 35-28.

A wild weekend indeed.

7) There were skeptics about West Virginia and Baylor. Both undefeated, but both unproven. Until Saturday. The Mountaineers knocked off BYU in another entertaining game, 35-32. Baylor took down Oklahoma State to earn its first conference win, 35-24. The Bears and Mountaineers remain unbeaten and atop the Big 12 standings. Baylor should have little trouble next week at Iowa State. West Virginia hosts Kansas State in a tricky game, as the Wildcats are still coached by Bill Snyder which means they are vastly underrated and prime for an upset.

8) Quick hitters: Texas A&M served noticed to the rest of the SEC West that it will contend. The Aggies knocked off Arkansas 45-24. A&M goes to South Carolina before a big two-game stretch at home against Tennessee Oct. 8, then a bye week before going to Alabama Oct. 22. ... Wisconsin also served notice that it will not be overlooked in the Big Ten. Everyone thought the Big Three in the Big Ten were Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. The Badgers had none of that, demolishing the Spartans on their home field 30-6. With Iowa struggling, it looks like Wisconsin may be the best team in the West division. Nebraska may have something to say about that, though. And the Badgers head to the Big House this weekend.

9) Top 10 on tap: Next week will produce three top-10 matchups including No. 7 Stanford at No. 10 Washington (Friday), No. 8 Wisconsin at No. 4 Michigan, and No. 3 Louisville at No. 5 Clemson. Other big games include Oklahoma at TCU, North Carolina at No. 12 Florida State and No. 11 Tennessee at No. 25 Georgia. (Note: Rankings reflect current AP Poll)

10) All eyes, though, will be on Tiger Town next weekend. ESPN's College GameDay will be on hand to kickoff the morning live from Bowman Field. The game will be broadcast in primetime on ABC with Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit and Sam Ponder on the call. It was one year ago when Notre Dame visited Clemson on the exact same weekend (Oct. 3, 2015). Get up. Get ready. Get loud. Get CLEMSON LOUD. Beat Louisville.

-BtW

The Morning After...

1) Apparently, I needed to switch my thoughts on Clemson's previous two games. I felt like Clemson would be challenged by Miami and blow out NC State. The roles were reversed. Either way, Clemson comes away from the brief two-game road trip with two wins by a combined 114-41 to move to 8-0, 5-0 in the ACC. It sets up a huge showdown next Saturday in Clemson, as the Tigers host Florida State. A win by Clemson clinches the Tigers' third trip to the ACC Championship Game (first since 2011). A Florida State win means the Noles would control their destiny in the Atlantic Division.

2) I'm not one to place college football players on a pedestal very often. However, sometimes players come along that are truly once-in-a-lifetime players. If you have a chance to watch Deshaun Watson play, do yourself a favor and do it. This kid is incredibly talented. He might stay at Clemson all four years, or he might go to the NFL after next season. If the latter should be the case, he would only be in a Tiger uniform for at most 22 games - and that would mean Clemson playing in back-to-back national championship games. The numbers only tell a small story, but they're worth looking at:

• Watson, just a sophomore, is 12-1 as Clemson's starter. The lone loss came last year at Georgia Tech when he went down with a knee injury early in the game with Clemson winning and driving for a bigger lead at the time. 
• Three weeks ago against the No. 1 defense in the country, he passed for 420 yards and three touchdowns. This week, he was 23-30, 383 yards, five TDs through the air and ran another, equaling his six total TDs scored a year ago against North Carolina (all six in that game were passing TDs). 
• When he accomplished that feat, he became the first Clemson QB in history to throw for six scores and the first freshman in ACC history to do so.
• Perhaps the most notorious feat, Watson led Clemson to its first win over South Carolina in six tries on a torn ACL. Again, as a freshman.

Seriously, when Clemson plays FSU next week, find a way to get to a TV and watch how special this kid is. He plays with a sense of calmness and control I've never seen.

3) Clemson left a lot to be desired on the field - offensively, missing out on a chance to put the nail in NC State's coffin several times; defensively, not being able to stop NC State with a big lead. I've harped on this before and thought those demons were exorcised against Miami. The Tigers still need to find that killer instinct. Before Florida State would be preferable.

4) Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma Sooners walloped Kansas, as expected. The win doesn't do much other than prove OU has a plethora of talent and the Jayhawks do not. The best thing that could come out of yesterday for the Sooners was next week's opponent, Iowa State, shut out Texas, 24-0. With Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State following the Cyclones, there may have been a chance for the Sooners to look past Iowa State. Not anymore.

5) It was mostly status quo through the early part of Saturday. Then, the fireworks happened. Georgia Tech, off its miracle win over Florida State last week, flopped to a 27-14 loss at previously two-win Virginia. Clemson and NC State had a wild start which included two blocked PATs, a kickoff returned for touchdown, both QBs scoring TD runs, and a 13-13 game, all within the first 4:33 of the game. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State left their defenses in the locker room. The Red Raiders sprinted out to a 17-0 and 24-7 lead, but saw the Pokes race to 70 points for a 70-53 win in Lubbock. Then, night fall and all heck broke loose...

(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

6) For the third straight week, a special teams blunder led to an unbelievable walk-off finish. This time, the previously de-pantsed Miami pulled off the miracle in Durham with an eight-lateral kickoff return for touchdown to beat Duke 30-27. That would be enough to go crazy about, but what ensued from the referee crew was inexplicable. There were two reviews that totaled nearly 10 minutes. It culminated with the head ref saying all the laterals were legal, there was no knee down (arguable) and they picked up a block in the back flag. If there ever was a time for a conference office to thoroughly explain that process, Monday morning would be that time.

Michigan State-Michigan: Punt Georgia Tech-Florida State: FG Miami-Duke: Kickoff What special teams walkoff play will next week bring?

— Ben Whitehead (@thebenwhitehead) November 1, 2015

Everyone needs to slow their role saying "The U is back." Hardly. Needed a miracle to beat Duke. Sad state when that means you're "back"

— Ben Whitehead (@thebenwhitehead) November 1, 2015

7) Michigan survived another wild finish, this time thanks to some stupid coaching on the part of Minnesota. With the Wolverines leading 29-26, the Gophers completed a pass, which was initially ruled a touchdown. Upon review, the ball was marked at the one-yard-line with about 17 seconds remaining. Minnesota lined up, then shifted formations. All the while, the clock kept ticking. After the play was stuffed at the goal line, Minnesota called timeout with two seconds to go and called a quarterback sneak. The Wolverines again stopped the play and reclaimed the Little Brown Jug.

8) If that wasn't enough for you, there were two more fantastic finishes. Temple showed toughness and grit, but ultimately lost to Notre Dame. The Irish used another comeback behind the clutch arm of Deshone Kizer. The Owls were a much better team than many thought. The hope here is that Temple didn't put all its eggs in this basket and continues to play like it did Saturday. 

8B) And finally, #Pac12AfterDark gave us Stanford escaping Pullman, Wash., and defeating Washington State 30-28. The Cardinal struggled mightily early on, but outscored the Cougars 20-6 to close out the game. They needed a missed field goal by Wazzu as time expired to clinch the win. Now, Stanford is in complete control of the Pac-12 North and could head into a huge finale with Notre Dame with both teams needing a win to stay alive for a potential Playoff berth.

9) Week 10 is here at last! Baylor at Kansas State (Thursday), LSU at Alabama, Florida State at Clemson, Duke at North Carolina, TCU at Oklahoma State, Notre Dame at Pitt. Also, the College Football Playoff Committee will release its first rankings Tuesday. Let the debate begin.

10) The Noles have won three straight over the Tigers, including their last visit to Death Valley. You might remember that one, a 51-14 drubbing to effectively ruin Clemson's season. Oh yeah, and it propelled Jameis Winston to Heisman status and FSU to National Champions. Time to end the streak and start one of our own. Beat Florida State.