Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Chaos causes shakeup in latest Ben Ten

As it stands right now, it's Alabama and everyone else. So where does everyone else rank? It's not easy now-a-days because there's a lot of comparing to do. How do you compare a team's loss in November to someone's in October? Or one that was on the road vs. one that was at home? Shouldn't overall "body of work" count as well as the eye test? Yes, the Playoff Committee has a tough job this week, but here's how I see it.

Playoff Teams

1) Alabama
Last week: No. 1
Record: 10-0
Wins over currently ranked teams: USC, Texas A&M, LSU
This week: vs. Chattanooga
No real need to expand on this one. Alabama has proven to be the best team in the land.

2) Ohio State
Ohio State leapt to No. 2 in the newest Ben Ten rankings.
(Photo courtesy Ohio State Athletics)

Last week: No. 6
Record: 9-1
Wins over currently ranked teams: Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Nebraska
This week: at Michigan State
The Buckeyes have won back-to-back games in November by a score of 62-3 after a shaky October that included a loss to Penn State, an OT win at Wisconsin, and a four-point home win against Northwestern. The competition hasn't been anywhere close to tough, but Ohio State is peaking, a good thing with the Michigan schools on tap.

3) Clemson
Last week: No. 2
Record: 9-1
Wins over currently ranked teams: Auburn, Troy, Louisville, Florida State
This week: at Wake Forest
Look, I don't like placing Clemson here as much as you don't like seeing a Clemson fan blogger putting Clemson here. But who else deserves to be No. 3? Louisville, the team Clemson beat? Michigan, remain No. 3 after losing a game? The Tigers have been playing with fire all year and were finally burned Saturday. Despite the loss, Clemson put up over 600 yards of offense, and was threatening to ice the game and go up by double-digits before things fell apart. With four Top 25 wins, the Tigers' résumé is still one of the best in the country.

4) Michigan
Last week: No. 3
Record: 9-1
Wins over currently ranked teams: Colorado, Penn State, Wisconsin
This week: vs. Indiana
Michigan drops a spot, but remains a Playoff team. I couldn't simply keep Michigan at No. 3 following a loss. The Wolverines were finally tested on the road and put up just 13 points and 200 yards of offense. Jim Harbaugh gets a home game with Indiana to right the ship before heading south to Columbus.

*Note: You could flip-flop Clemson and Michigan and I'd have no problem with that. In the end, Michigan and Ohio State will play next weekend, so we'll know the status of those two teams in due time.

Next in line

5) Louisville
Last week: No. 5
Record: 9-1
Wins over currently ranked teams: Florida State
This week: at Houston (Thursday)
The strength of Louisville's wins is holding it back. Currently, the Cardinals have just two wins over teams with a winning record - FSU and Wake Forest. The Deacons led 12-0 at one point and 12-10 going into the fourth quarter before a Louisville barrage. A short week and a road trip will make or break the Cards' season.

6) Washington
Last week: No. 4
Record: 9-1
Wins over currently ranked teams: Utah
This week: vs. Arizona State
Many have waited for the Huskies to play a solid team and the Huskies were exposed against a pretty talented USC squad. The home loss hurts, but doesn't completely knock Washington out. The Huskies can still go 12-1, defeat a ranked opponent on the road (Washington State next weekend) and win the Pac-12 championship against a ranked team from the South Division. That'd be enough to put UW back in the Playoff.

7) Wisconsin
Last week: 7
Record: 8-2
Wins over currently ranked teams: LSU, Nebraska
This week: at Purdue
Fortunately for Wisconsin, the Badgers have two really close losses at Michigan (14-7) and vs. Ohio State (30-23 in OT). Unfortunately, that's one more loss than the teams above the Badgers and it only proves they can play with the top teams, but not beat them. Hence why they reside here.

8) Oklahoma
Last Week: 9
Record: 8-2
Wins over currently ranked teams: None
This week: at West Virginia
Without others losing, this might be as high as Oklahoma can go. The Sooners are rolling through the lower two-thirds of the Big 12. But that grouping is pretty, um, pathetic. Oklahoma gets a chance to earn two quality wins at West Virginia this weekend and against Oklahoma State on Dec. 3. Win and we can at least talk. But talk might be as far as it gets.

9) Utah
Last week: 10
Record: 8-2
Wins over currently ranked teams: USC
This week: vs. Oregon
It appears Utah will head into its final game at Colorado with the Pac-12 South title on the line. The Utes hold the tiebreaker over USC in the division already. First, they must entertain Oregon. The Ducks are officially bowl ineligible and Utah is a 13-point home favorite. Lots to look forward to in the next two weeks in the Pac-12 South.

10) Penn State
Last week: NR
Record: 8-2
Wins over currently ranked teams: Ohio State
This week: at Rutgers
The Nittany Lions get the nod here simply for two reasons: 1) They have a win over Ohio State and 2) They sort of control their destiny in the Big Ten East. If Penn State wins out over Rutgers (2-8) and Michigan State (3-7) AND Ohio State beats Michigan, PSU will go to Indianapolis.


Dropped out: Auburn (8)

Four on the outside: Western MichiganWest Virginia, Colorado, Oklahoma State

-BtW

Sunday, November 13, 2016

The Morning After... #Chaos

Sorry, Clemson fans. This won't be all sunshine and rainbows like what you've heard out of the locker room Saturday night. I'm a fan and as a fan, I have the right to be upset with what transpired in our home at the hands of Pitt.

1) Deshaun Watson needs to stop thinking about the NFL. He's pressured himself into thinking he's a legitimate Top 5 pick and is trying to prove it every week. He's forcing throws into tight windows. He's making poor decisions. He has 13 interceptions this season through 10 games. He had 13 all last season (15 games). All the trips this past spring and summer got to his head. He said at the beginning of the year that all that was a grind and it was uncomfortable for him, but he still had to go out and play. Well, he's pressing and it has nearly cost Clemson several times this season. It finally did against Pitt.
Yeah, yeah. Pitt's Chris Blewitt didn't blow it. The headline
writes itself. But Clemson did blow it.
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

2) Clemson's offensive playcaller Tony Elliott out-coached himself at least twice. First, even after all I said about Watson in #1 of this post, you have the best player on the field with a 3rd and 1 AND a 4th and 1 with a minute to go in the game and you took the ball out of his hands. TWICE you pitched it back five yards to a running back that had less than 40 yards all game. This also goes into the players' hands for not being able to get one yard on two downs. But with a QB who has thrown for 580 yards, why go to the ground game there and why take the ball out of the hands of the best player on the field?

This is going to sound counter-intuitive, but on the previous drive why are we throwing the ball on 2nd and goal from the three after running for four yards on first down? There was 5:45 to play, you need to run clock and all you need to do is kick a field goal on that drive and you win. Just run the ball and game over. Hindsight is always 20-20, but coaches at this level have to make better decisions.

3) Pitt's offensive coordinator Matt Canada out-coached Brent Venables. Clemson had no answer for stopping the shovel pass, a wrinkle the Tigers hadn't seen and couldn't adjust to until it was too late. Canada exploited the Tigers' weakness - coverage by linebackers. It's been bad under Venables and has never gotten better. 

4) Blame the refs all you want, and there are plenty of opportunities to do so, but for every penalty thrown against Clemson, there were double the amount of bonehead mistakes by a Tiger player or coach. The refs play a part in every game. That's a fact. But they were not the reason for the outcome. That's one area where I agree with Dabo's postgame comments. 

5) Spent the early part of the day in Norman for the OU-Baylor game. Speaking of outcoaching themselves, Baylor ran for over 200 yards on Oklahoma, gaining five-plus yards on numerous plays right up the middle, but the Bears kept going to the air. They were picked off twice, including once on the goalline when Baylor was trying to cut the OU lead to 14-7. The pick allowed the Sooners to go up 21-0. For OU, the game seemed very ho-hum. There really wasn't much Baylor was doing to stop OU. After getting out to a 21-0 lead, the teams traded scores most of the rest of the way, tying the remainder of the game 24-24. It was a perfect afternoon for football and it was great to get back to a college game. BENched always enjoys his time in Norman.

6) OK, let's get the chaos out of the way. For the record, I sat on my couch following Clemson's loss and just started saying, "Chaos." I guess if you say it enough, it will happen. And it did, so allow BENched to explain what will likely happen these next few weeks with regards to the CFB Playoff rankings:

  • Nos. 2, 3 and 4 all lost Saturday. Aforementioned No. 2 Clemson fell to Pitt, 43-42; No. 3 Michigan also lost on last-second field goal 14-13 at Iowa; and No. 4 Washington was dominated by No. 20 USC on its home field, 26-13.
  • That leaves us with two unbeatens (Alabama and Western Michigan). It also leaves us with a jumbled mess between No. 2 and No. 6 in the rankings. Expect Ohio State to move to No. 2 behind No. 1 Alabama. That much should be clear and easy. There are five other Power 5 teams with one loss - Clemson, Louisville, Michigan, Washington, and West Virginia. The Mountaineers were No. 16 in last week's rankings and I don't see them jumping at least 10 spots after a close win over 5-5 Texas. 
  • The Playoff Committee has set a precedent that for the most part, teams with equal records who have played each other, the head-to-head winner will be ranked above. Therefore, I believe Clemson in some capacity will be ahead of Louisville. Clemson was also previously ahead of Michigan and with both teams losing, and Big Blue gaining 200 yards and scoring only 13 points, I can't see Clemson falling behind the Wolverines. Washington's loss was crushing for the Huskies, so here's how I see Nos. 3-6: Clemson, Michigan, Louisville, Washington.
  • Iowa's upset of Michigan was not so good for the Buckeyes.
    (Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)
  • If you want chaos, wait until Penn State wins out (Rutgers and Michigan State are all that remain) and Ohio State beats Michigan in the Horseshoe. The Nittany Lions will play for the Big Ten title, while both OSU and UM sit at home awaiting a potential Playoff fate.
7) Don't be shocked when what I just said is completely false. It's very plausible that Clemson falls out of the Top 4, Louisville is ranked third, and instead of one-loss Washington at No. 6, perhaps a two-loss Wisconsin or Penn State slides in. These rankings are fluid and will completely different anyway at the end of the season once conference championships are factored in. Even if Louisville is ahead of Clemson, if the Tigers win the ACC and are 12-1, they will be ranked ahead of 11-1 Louisville in the final Playoff ranking.

8) Two thoughts here: The Big 12 is dead. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and WVU are the only hope. Oklahoma is higher ranked and plays both teams in its final two games. Both OU and OSU have two losses, while the 'Neers only loss is to OSU. Even if one-loss WVU emerges, the Big 12 is so down it won't have enough quality wins to sniff the Playoff. Same goes for OU/OSU, who lost to Houston and Central Michigan, respectively.
Jake Browning's thoughts reflected those of Husky Nation.
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

The Pac-12 is not dead. Washington might be out for now, but the Huskies will have ample opportunity to make up for the one loss. Colorado, USC and Utah are in a battle in the South. It's likely the winner of that division will be have Top 15 or better ranking entering the Pac-12 title game ... Where it will face either highly-ranked Washington or Washington State. The winner of the Apple Cup will in the North Division. Wazzu is 8-2 and has won eight-in-a-row. If the Cougs can win at Colorado and vs. Washington, plus the Pac-12 championship, they will see a big jump in the rankings. Washington can win on the road at Wazzu and then a Pac-12 title and be right back in the Playoff mix.

9) It's only Nov. 13 and we have chaos. Next week provides some relief. Most of the big teams face lesser opponents. Remember, this is the week the SEC takes a break from action to play the likes of Chattanooga, UT-Martin, The Citadel, etc. The SEC East could be decided if Florida beats LSU in the makeup game which was moved from The Swamp to Death Valley. Some big conference games are on tap in the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12, but the big one of the weekend will be Oklahoma traveling to West Virginia. All this to say, expect more chaos in the next three weekends.

10) Clemson is down and not out. Here's where what the players/coaches said is true. The Tigers are facing adversity and it can either build them or break them. Clemson faces championship weekends in its next two games. Wins at each stop will add another trophy to the case in Tiger Town. It starts with winning at Wake Forest to clinch the ACC Atlantic Division. We are #ALLIN, Always. Beat Wake.

-BtW

Friday, November 11, 2016

PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 11

Not much changed after the first weekend in November. Well, aside from Texas A&M falling to Mississippi State. Much of the rest of the country watched as one team after another won in blowout fashion. We've already had one upset this weekend, with Duke taking down No. 17 North Carolina Thursday night, 28-27. This would be a surprise, but that No. 17 ranking has been cursed all season. Don't know if the Thursday upset will lead to anymore this weekend. All four Power 5 unbeatens are favored, and three of them - Alabama, Clemson and Michigan - are favored by 20 or more. Washington is a nine-point favorite over No. 20 USC, so even that line says a lot. Time for some picks!

2016 BENched PTF Record
Last Week: 11-2
Game of the Week Pick: 3-3
Overall: 89-38 (.701 win %)
*Rankings below reflect the CFB Playoff Top 25

Saturday

South Carolina at Florida
 (Line: Florida -11)
Who would've thought this game would help solve the SEC East puzzle? South Carolina enters "The Swamp" with another former Gator coach, Will Muschamp. The Gamecocks need a win and about a million other scenarios. Florida just needs to win this week and next. But this week first. Gators 27-17

Baylor at No. 11 Oklahoma (Line: Oklahoma -17.5)
Baylor is in disarray following a 62-22 loss to rival TCU amid all the allegations against the school and football team. OU is flying high with an offense that is showing no signs of slowing down. Plus, the Sooners get Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon back this week. Sooners 63-27

No. 10 Penn State at Indiana (Line: Penn State -7)
A tricky spot here for the Nittany Lions, who BENched doesn't believe is a top 10 team. Indiana gave Ohio State and Nebraska fits earlier. The early start on the road provides more reason to believe this could be the upset of the weekend. Key word: could. Nittany Lions 33-31

Kentucky at Tennessee (Line: Tennessee -14)
Like South Carolina-Florida, not many pegged this one as a potential SEC East division title bout. The winner doesn't claim the crown, but the loser would essentially be out of the race. It will be tough for the Wildcats to win in Knoxville, but the Vols' mettle will be tested. Vols 38-28

Mississippi State at No. 1 Alabama (Line: Alabama -29)
No reason to believe Nick Saban and Co. are overlooking a 4-5 Mississippi State squad. The Bulldogs upset of Texas A&M last week likely got the Crimson Tide's full attention all week. Nick Fitzgerald is the type of quarterback that gives Alabama trouble. But there's a reason this line is near 30 points. Bammers 49-13

No. 16 West Virginia at Texas (Line: Texas -2)
Hmm, the Big 12's most complete team is a two-point underdog to the Big 12's most Jekyll and Hyde team. Texas has rhythm on offense, but it will be facing someone with a defense for the first time since losing to K-State. WVU likes to control the game and will do so on the road. 'Neers 31-24

No. 9 Auburn at Georgia (Line: Auburn -10)
The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry takes a back seat this year, mostly due to the Dawgs' pitiful season. Auburn has turned a 1-2 start into a Top 10 ranking and controls its own destiny now in the SEC West. There's uncertainty surrounding quarterback Sean White and running back Kamryn Pettway, so that could factor into whether the Tigers get their first win "Between the Hedges" since 2005. Tigers 34-17

Pittsburgh at No. 2 Clemson (Line: Clemson -20.5)
The pressure is on for Clemson. Dabo Swinney confirmed speculatory reports that Deshaun Watson, Artavis Scott, Mike Williams and Wayne Gallman will all seek to turn pro via the NFL Draft next spring. That means this is now a do-or-don't season for the Tigers. Clemson played its best game a week ago, winning 54-0 over Syracuse. Pitt has given up 30+ points to seven teams this season. Doesn't look good for the Panthers in Death Valley. Tigers 47-20

Stanford at Oregon (Line: Stanford -3)
Remember when the winner of this game would win the Pac-12? Now, these two are combined 9-9. Yeesh. Trees 31-27

No. 24 LSU at No. 25 Arkansas (Line: LSU -7)
How LSU fell 11 spots after taking Bama into the fourth quarter tied 0-0 is beyond me. And how Arkansas found itself back in the rankings two games removed from a 56-3 beatdown by Auburn is also beyond me. Welp, these two battle for the Golden Boot and Arkansas plays well as the underdog in this series. No reason to believe they can't pull off the victory, especially after how spent LSU likely is after the battle with Bama. Hogs 23-17

Minnesota at No. 19 Nebraska (Line: Nebraska -7)
Minnesota is the forgotten team in the Big Ten West. The Gophers are 7-2 overall (4-2 in conference) and still plays Nebraska and Wisconsin in the final three weeks. Both games are on the road, however, so it won't be easy to win the division. We'll find out how the Huskers respond to the shellacking they took in Columbus last week. Corn Guys 37-30

GAME OF THE WEEK
Jake Browning and Washington put Oregon in its place earlier.
Can the Huskies do the same against USC?
(Photo courtesy Joshua Bessex)

No. 20 USC at No. 4 Washington (Line: Washington -9)
Washington hits the meat of its schedule just in time to defend its Top 4 ranking. The Huskies, led by Jake Browning, own the second-best offense in the country. USC finds itself in the Top 25 for the first time in a while after winning five straight. The Trojans have scored 40 or more in four of the five wins, but will be facing a tough UW defense that gives up just 17 points per game (11th best in the nation). All eyes will finally be on the West Coast and the Huskies can show their Purple Reign to the rest of the country. Dawgs 41-24

No. 3 Michigan at Iowa (Line: Michigan -21.5)
Michigan goes on the road for just the third time this season and only the second time outside state borders. Iowa was a preseason darkhorse to cause some havoc in the Big Ten, much like it did a season ago. Things haven't gone the Hawkeyes way, but a night game at Kinnick Stadium with a chance to knock off the Wolverines? That'll bring the best out of Kirk Ferentz's team. Too bad, it won't be nearly enough. Big Blue 40-17

-BtW

Monday, November 7, 2016

No change at the top of the Ben Ten rankings

A little more clarity for the top teams as Texas A&M went down this week. The Committee had them at No. 4, but BENched was slightly wiser and had them at seventh. So the Aggies fall out of the Ben Ten this week, as does Florida. The Top 4 remain intact, but there could certainly be some shakeups in the next few weeks. Three of the Top 4 teams face ranked rivals on the final weekend of the season. Until then, they can't get caught looking ahead.

Playoff Teams
Freshman QB Jalen Hurts was good enough in leading Bama
to a win at LSU Saturday night.
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)

1) Alabama
Last week: No. 1
Record: 9-0
Wins over currently ranked teams: Texas A&M, LSU
This week: vs. Mississippi State
Alabama suffocated LSU, beating the Tigers in Baton Rouge, 10-0. Bama heads home for its final three games, none bigger than the Iron Bowl on Nov. 26. You can rest assured the Crimson Tide won't overlook a Mississippi State team which just defeated Texas A&M.

2) Clemson
Last week: No. 2
Record: 9-0
Wins over currently ranked teams: Auburn, Louisville, Florida State
This week: vs. Pitt
Clemson put together its best performance against Syracuse, beating the Orange, 54-0. Deshaun Watson left late in the second quarter with a bruised shoulder, but all indications are he will be fine for the stretch run. The Tigers host Pitt this weekend. The Panthers are one of the worst passing defenses in the nation, so Watson should get a good chance to test his shoulder out plenty.

3) Michigan
Last week: No. 3
Record: 9-0
Wins over currently ranked teams: Colorado, Penn State, Wisconsin
This week: at Iowa
Like Clemson, Michigan mauled Maryland, 59-3. Here's the thing about Michigan, and I've said it numerous times, the Wolverines have been dominant. But out of their nine games, only one has been outside the state of Michigan. That game was at Rutgers, a 78-0 demolition. Big Blue has a chance to gain some style points with two road games coming up, starting this weekend at Iowa, then the closer at Ohio State.

4) Washington
Last week: No. 4
Record: 9-0
Wins over currently ranked teams: Utah
This week: vs. USC
 I could argue that Washington has done more to impress me than Michigan has, but the Huskies remain fourth for now. UW won convincingly at Cal, 66-27. Washington now has four road wins, double what Michigan has and against better competition. Two big tests face the Huskies - this weekend with College GameDay in Seattle vs. USC and in three weeks at Washington State.

Next in line

5) Louisville
Last week: No. 5
Record: 8-1
Wins over currently ranked teams: Florida State
This week: vs. Wake Forest
Louisville did to Boston College what you'd expect, and will probably do the same to the rest of its opponents. The Cardinals know they need as many style points to remain in the Playoff hunt and need a few others to lose along the way. The better they look, the harder it will be to keep them out.

6) Ohio State
Last week: No. 6
Record: 8-1
Wins over currently ranked teams: Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Nebraska
This week: at Maryland
Ohio State blasted a beat up Huskers squad, which will look great in the eyes of the Committee. It adds another data point for a ranked win and keeps the Buckeyes in line for the big showdown with Michigan. The trip to College Park shouldn't be too tall a task, considering what the Wolverines just did to the Terps.

7) Wisconsin
Last week: 8
Record: 7-2
Wins over currently ranked teams: LSU, Nebraska
This week: vs. Illinois
Wisconsin knocked off a tough Northwestern team in a lackluster game. The Badgers control the Big Ten West now thanks to Nebraska's loss. This team could give fits to either Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten title game, as it already has played both close this season.

8) Auburn
Last week: 10
Record: 7-2
Wins over currently ranked teams: LSU
This week: at Georgia
Auburn struggled at times with Vanderbilt, but held off the Commodores at home. The Tigers are one SEC win away from setting up the tussle in Tuscaloosa. They just have to get by rival Georgia "Between the Hedges" first.

9) Oklahoma
Last Week: NR
Record: 7-2
Wins over currently ranked teams: None
This week: vs. Baylor
The Sooners fell off the wagon early with losses to Houston and Ohio State. I'm not convinced this is a top 10 team entirely because their latest wins have come against the bottom two-thirds of the Big 12. The final three games will prove where OU stands: vs. Baylor, at West Virginia, vs. Oklahoma State.

10) Utah
Last week: NR
Record: 7-2
Wins over currently ranked teams: None
This week: at Arizona State (Thursday)
The Utes stumbled two weeks ago in a close loss to Washington, but that's been their only blemish in the past four games. Utah is the only team to slow down Washington, holding the Huskies to 24 offensive points while they average over 48 per game. Wins in their final three games puts the Utes in the Pac-12 championship game.

Dropped out: Texas A&M (7), Florida (9)

Four on the outside: Western MichiganWest Virginia, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M

-BtW

Sunday, November 6, 2016

The Morning After... Blowout Saturday

Artavis Scott caught one of Nick Scheussler's two TD passes.
Scott saluted military personnel in the stands
on Military Appreciation Day at Clemson.
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)
1) Clemson's 54-0 win over Syracuse was about as complete a performance you'll see. The Tigers's offense was in sync, gaining 195 yards on the ground and 370 through the air. The defense was fast, physical, and slowed down the Orange uptempo spread offense. Clemson pitched a shutout and scored a defensive TD with a pick-6 by redshirt freshman Tanner Muse, who isn't listed on the Tigers' depth chart. There were two areas of concern - first, Deshaun Watson left with a shoulder injury late in the second quarter. It's been reported his injury was just a bruise and Watson could have returned if needed. With a 30-0 halftime lead, it was unnecessary. In relief, Nick Schuessler was brilliant. The career backup was 11-of-17 for 177 yards and two touchdowns.

The second area of concern was special teams. Clemson missed a PAT, a FG, and allowed a long kickoff return. There may have been a lack of focus in some areas with the game out of hand, but the mistakes need to be corrected. It's hard to get upset with Greg Huegel missing a 40-yard field goal after he went 3-for-3 including a clutch 46-yarder last week at Florida State. Consistency needs to improve for the young kicker.

2) With little to discuss in a 54-0 game, I figured I'd give my take on the Ben Boulware suplex tackle. No whistles had blown, the offensive player was still fighting for yards, and Boulware was doing all he could to get the guy to the ground. Was it a forceful takedown? Sure. But the referee's reported explanation of why he was penalized was because "he tackled him too hard." What does that even mean, too hard? Is he supposed to hit him with a pillow and hope he falls? Look, I'm on the side of the medical analysts who are looking out for players and injuries to their heads because CTE is real, but to say a tackle was "too hard" and THAT be the reason for the flag is pitiful.

3) It's become clear that one of two scenarios is playing out with Clemson's running game. Either Wayne Gallman doesn't have his heart 100% into this season or the Tigers aren't very good at run blocking. In a game where everything went Clemson's way, the Tigers averaged just 4.4 yards per carry. Now, 4.4 yards per carry gets you a first down every three carries, I get that. But the Tigers are averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the entire season. Gallman averaged 6.3 yards per carry (10 rushes for 63 yards), but he had one 30-yard gain. In a shortened day, he had nine carries for 33 yards (3.7 ypc). Clemson's not getting it done on the ground and Gallman has had far too many games with only 10-12 carries.

4) The win sets up a chance for Clemson to accomplish several things next weekend when Pitt visits Death Valley. First, Clemson can win 10 games for the sixth straight season, matching only Alabama for current active streaks (assuming Bama beats Mississippi State next weekend). Second, Clemson will clinch the Atlantic Division title for the second straight season. And last, a win next week would assure the Tigers a spot in the AP Top 5 for the 20th consecutive poll. Previously, Clemson's longest streak inside the AP Top 5 was eight weeks during the 1981 season.

5) More impressive stats: Clemson has begun the season 9-0 for just the fourth time in school history and the second straight season. The other seasons were 1948 under Frank Howard when Clemson finished 11-0 and 1981 under Danny Ford, the Tigers' lone National Championship season when they finished 12-0. Last season, Clemson took a 14-0 record into the National Championship game before losing to Alabama, 45-40. ... Clemson has won 46 straight against unranked teams (AP Poll), 23 straight regular season games, 21 straight at home and 15 straight ACC games. ... Clemson is now 23-1 since the start of the 2015 season. That is tied with Alabama for the best record in that time.

6) It seems long ago - it was only Thursday - when Oklahoma won at Iowa State. Thursday games do that to you, but the Sooners went up to Ames on a short week and came away with a double-digit win over a team that had played Baylor, Oklahoma State and Kansas State all within a one-possession score. The reason to keep your eyes on the Sooners is two-fold: 1) OU could run the table and finish 10-2 with nine straight wins and be a conference champion. 2) Dede Westbrook is the best receiver in football. Over his past six games, he's hauled in 12 touchdown receptions, has 1,011 receiving yards, and has a punt return for a TD.

7) On a day when most of the games ended like Clemson's 54-0 rout, there were only a few things that stood out. Texas A&M losing at Mississippi State could not have been seen by anyone. The Aggies were 10-point favorites on the road and faced a 3-5 MSU team that had lost to South Alabama. Needless to say, A&M will be falling far from the CFB Playoff Top 4. ... Staying in the SEC, the East is about as muddled and less than mediocre as ever. Florida, the top team in the East, fell 31-10 at Arkansas. Kentucky had a chance to take over the top spot, but lost to middling Georgia at home. And somehow, South Carolina is technically in the SEC East race after beginning the season 2-4. The Gamecocks have to win at Florida this weekend and hope a lot of other things happen. But in a season when this is how we've gotten here, why not?

7B) Alabama and LSU were scoreless through three quarters, but it was evident the Crimson Tide were close to breaking through several times. Bama missed a field goal, was stuffed on fourth-and-goal from the one, and had several other chances in Tiger territory. The 10-0 isn't impressive in terms of blowout numbers, but Alabama was the much better team. Not hard to believe considering LSU is now 5-3 and very well could end up 5-6 with games against Arkansas, Florida, and Texas A&M still to come. For Alabama, all eyes are now on the Iron Bowl.

8) Texas outlasted Texas Tech on the road, enhancing the chances the Longhorns reach bowl eligibility. D'Onta Foreman had a career day with 341 yards and three touchdowns. Foreman has 1,446 yards on 206 carries (7.0 ypc) and 13 touchdowns. It's sad that he plays at Texas or he would likely be the frontrunner for the Heisman. ...  In other Big 12 action, Oklahoma State rallied to beat Kansas State, 43-37. The Cowboys (7-2) remain in control of their destiny in the Big 12, needing to win out against Texas Tech, TCU and Oklahoma to claim the conference crown. ... The black cloud over Waco got even darker this weekend. People inside the Baylor bubble might be some of the most idiotic. I feel sorry for Jim Grobe having to deal with the mess he's in. If I were him, I'd tell those people to shove it. Oh, Baylor lost at home to rival TCU, 62-22, while wearing all black uniforms and fans dressing in black to show support for Art Briles. YUCK!

9) Conference races are heating up with just a few weeks to go. Here are the teams with a realistic shot of winning their divisions/conferences:
ACC Atlantic - Clemson, Louisville
ACC Coastal - Virginia Tech, North Carolina
Big 12 - Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Big Ten East - Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Big Ten West - Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota
Pac-12 North - Washington, Washington State
Pac-12 South - Colorado, USC, Utah
SEC East - Everyone except Vandy and Mizzou
SEC West - Alabama, Auburn

10) Pitt lost at Miami 51-28 Saturday and has back-to-back losses after starting the year 5-3, one win from bowl eligibility. Another long trip south for the Panthers. Give them another long trip back home. Beat Pitt.

Friday, November 4, 2016

PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 10

The College Football Playoff Poll is out. That means we've reached November and the final full month of regular season play. With four weekends to go until Championship Saturday in December, plenty is still on the line. Only five unbeatens remain - four from Power 5 conferences. As the saying goes, "They remember November." Time to make your mark.

2016 BENched PTF Record
Last Week: 6-6
Game of the Week Pick: 2-3
Overall: 78-36 (.684 win %)
*Rankings below reflect the CFB Playoff Top 25

Saturday

No. 7 Louisville at Boston College
 (Line: Louisville -25)
Things haven't come easy the recently for Lamar Jackson and the Cards. A game at noon at sleepy Chestnut Hill could produce another lackluster performance. But ESPN will find a 12-yard first down pass and claim it's his new Heisman moment anyway. Cards 33-10

No. 4 Texas A&M at Mississippi State (Line: Texas A&M -13)
Something about this game has me on edge. A&M somehow ended up at No. 4 in the Playoff Poll and no one knows how. Starkvegas will bring the clanga-clanga of the cowbells and this might be closer than the experts think. Aggies 31-20

No. 8 Wisconsin at Northwestern (Line: Wisconsin -6.5)
The City of Chicago will be hungover from the Cubs World Series victory. The party through the weekend could end with an upset bid by Northwestern. The Wildcats came close to knocking off Ohio State last weekend. The Badgers escaped another overtime game. Close, but the cheeseheads get it done. Badgers 27-17

Texas at Texas Tech (Line: Texas -3.5)
After the Longhorns upset over Baylor, Charlie Strong is eyeing a bowl bid. This will probably be another Big 12 shootout. Expect points and not very much defense. Horns 47-44

Georgia Tech at No. 21 North Carolina (Line: North Carolina -10.5)
North Carolina needs a win to keep pace with Virginia Tech in the Coastal race. Georgia Tech needs a win to become bowl eligible a season after winning just three games. The Jackets don't get it in Chapel Hill. Heels 38-27

Syracuse at No. 2 Clemson (Line: Clemson -26.5)
Dabo Swinney calls November the "Championship Phase" of the season. The first marker is the Atlantic Division championship. Clemson can't clinch it here, but expect the Tigers to play their best game. Syracuse will put up points with its uptempo offense, but not enough to take down Deshaun Watson. Tigers 49-24

Maryland at No. 3 Michigan (Line: Michigan -31)
Michigan is playing another home game? This is my shocked face. Harbaugh's boys cruise against a Maryland team that started 4-0, but is 1-3 in its last four games with losses to Minnesota and Indiana. Big Blue 41-10

No. 11 Florida at Arkansas (Line: Florida -4)
The Gators have a stout defense, but are lacking in the offense department. Florida has some wiggle room should it lose here, but really needs a win against one of its two SEC West opponents. Meanwhile, Bret Beliema and the Hogs had a bye week to think about their 56-3 whoopin' at Auburn. Arkansas will play better and could pull the upset. Hogs 20-17

TCU at No. 17 Baylor (Line: Baylor -7.5)
Once a budding rivalry in the Big 12, now an afterthought. TCU is on the verge of not making a bowl this season, while Baylor needs a win to remain in conference title contention. The Battle on the Brazos will be fun to watch, but the implications are lacking. Bears 45-38

Iowa at No. 12 Penn State (Line: Penn State -7.5)
Penn State finds itself ranked much higher in the CFB Playoff Poll than any other poll. I guess a 62-point outburst against Purdue will do that for you. The Hawkeyes are in the middle game of playing Wisconsin, at Penn State and Michigan. They lost to the Badgers at home two weeks ago and got a bye week to prep for the trip to Happy Valley. James Franklin has called for an impromptu whiteout. Nittany Lions 23-13

No. 10 Nebraska at No. 6 Ohio State (Line: Ohio State -17)
After Nebraska's overtime loss on the road in Madison, it's somewhat shocking to see such a large spread for the Huskers' trip to Columbus. Maybe the tank is on empty. Maybe the Buckeyes are that much better. But Ohio State hasn't shown much the past few weeks needing OT to win at Wisconsin, falling to Penn State on the road, then struggling in a 24-20 win at home against Northwestern. Vegas knows something... Buckeyes 34-14

GAME OF THE WEEK
No. 1 Alabama at No. 13 LSU (Line: Alabama -7.5)
Louisiana boy Ed Orgeron can become the state's
favorite son by leading LSU to a win over Alabama.
(Photo courtesy The Advocate)
Arguably the best coach in the game vs. arguably the best interim coach in the game. Nick Saban vs. Ed Orgeron. The headlines surrounding Alabama at LSU are plentiful, and Oregeron has made sure LSU is at its best when the Crimson Tide come to Baton Rouge. Jalen Hurts has been in a few hostile environments this season, but LSU's Death Valley will be the toughest venue the freshman has entered. Leonard Fournette was swallowed up in last year's game, gaining just 31 yards on 19 carries. Fournette is coming into his own at the right time this year. I'm not calling the upset because I just can't pick against Bama, but don't be surprised if the Tigers take down the Tide. Bammers 30-20

No. 5 Washington at Cal (Line: Washington -17)
Through three road games, the Huskies have an OT win at Arizona, a seven-point win at Utah which was won on a late, controversial punt return, and a blowout at Oregon (70-21). How angry is U-Dub that it didn't make the initial Top 4 of the Playoff Poll? And how will that translate to the field? On the other side, Cal is unbeaten at home this season with wins over Texas, Utah and Oregon. Davis Webb and the offense can hang with Jake Browning and the Huskies. I just don't see that lasting too long. Dawgs 37-23

-BtW

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Rapid Reax: CFB Playoff Poll Released

November 1 has arrived and with it the release of the first College Football Playoff Committee Poll. Let's remind everyone that this is an ever-changing ranking of teams and the Playoff Committee has consistently ranked teams based on a variety of criteria from strength of schedule to body of work to game control to the eye test.
Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide finished on top last season.
That's where they are once again in the first CFB Playoff Poll.
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)

It's not surprising that Alabama was ranked No. 1. The Tide's schedule at first glance provided some treacherous spots - at Ole Miss, at Tennessee and vs. Texas A&M.  But of the five ranked teams Alabama played at the time of their game, only one (Texas A&M) is still currently ranked). Still, the Tide have run through their opponents, winning by an average margin of 29 points.

The matter of ranking Clemson vs. Michigan is significant in a lot of ways. The Tigers were ranked No. 2 this week. First, Michigan's schedule going forward could help push the Wolverines ahead of Clemson if both teams win out. Second, if Alabama slips up - and that's an elephant-sized if - the Tigers would move to No. 1 and Michigan up to No. 2. Depending on who the Committee ranks third and fourth in the final poll if both teams finish there, it could affect where the teams go for the semifinal games.

If Clemson were No. 1, there is no doubt the Tigers would go to the Peach Bowl. With Michigan No. 1, however, the Committee could put the Wolverines in the Peach Bowl if they were to face Washington, forcing the Huskies to travel across the country. If Big Blue's opponent is Alabama, the Committee would likely shift that game to the Fiesta Bowl to avoid Michigan, the No. 1 team, having to play in the Tide's backyard of Atlanta.

I digress, though, because there is an entire month of games to go and anything can still happen.

Here's the real head-scratcher: Texas A&M with a 19-point loss to Alabama was placed ahead of unbeaten Washington. Most would argue that Washington has passed the eye test, not to mention the Aggies' loss. Where Washington has been hurt is the lack of strength in the Pac-12. Huge wins over Stanford and Oregon (on the road) don't care much weight when they are a combined 8-8. The Huskies just need to keep on winning, though, and there's a good chance everything shakes out.

As for the rest of the Top 10, I was somewhat surprised by Louisville's ranking at No. 7 and Auburn being in the Top 10. The Cards had been one of the most dominant teams in the early part of the season, with a "quality loss" at Clemson. Louisville, though, doesn't have very many quality wins. The 63-20 thrashing of Florida State has taken a hit with the 'Noles dropping two more games since.

Auburn has two home losses to No. 2 Clemson and No. 4 Texas A&M. The Tigers does own a win over LSU and is on a five-game winning streak. Auburn can make or break its season on Nov. 26 at Alabama.

Last, the Big Ten has four of the Top 10 teams and five of the Top 12 (Penn State is No. 12). Lots of love thrown to the upper Midwest, which will only boost the schedule strength of those teams going forward.

The Playoff Poll Top 10
1)  Alabama
2)  Clemson
3)  Michigan
4)  Texas A&M
5)  Washington
6)  Ohio State
7)  Louisville
8)  Wisconsin
9)  Auburn
10) Nebraska

-BtW