Friday, October 13, 2017

PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 7

Happy Friday the 13th! Be careful out there, they're predicting an upsetting weekend with no ranked-vs.-ranked matchups. Will the big boys fall, or will the gap between the top and bottom widen a bit more?

2017 Record
Overall: 77-23 (.783 win %)
Last Week: 12-5
Game of the Week Pick: 3-3
*Rankings below reflect the AP Top 25

AP Top 10
Arkansas at 1 Alabama
Saturday, 7:15 pm ET, ESPN
Alabama -31.5
The Crimson Tide looked mortal last weekend. Texas A&M hung around long enough to make the Bama faithful almost nervous. That spells doom for Arkansas. Tide 55-6

2 Clemson at Syracuse
Friday, 7 pm ET, ESPN
Clemson -23
Clemson travels to Central New York for an all orange battle. Last season, the Tigers hung 56 on the board on a Friday night in Boston. Not sure this squad will get that high, but I'm anticipating a blowout. Tigers 45-14 

3 Penn State - BYE

Missouri at 4 Georgia
Saturday, 7:30 pm ET, SEC
Georgia -29.5
Georgia's Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are good enough that any quarterback could run the Bulldogs' offense. So far, Jake Fromm is playing well and he won't be tested by Mizzou. Dawgs 49-17

5 Washington at Arizona State
Saturday, 10:45 pm ET, ESPN
Washington -17.5
This one gets started late, much to the disdain of Chris Petersen. Washington shouldn't have any trouble, but the Sun Devils can score in a hurry. Other Dawgs 38-20

6 TCU at Kansas State
Saturday, Noon ET, FS1
TCU -6
With Jesse Ertz out, it feels like the Kansas State train is headed down the wrong tracks. TCU is looking to keep ahead of the rest of the Big 12 pack. Don't see this one being as close as the line predicts. Frogs 41-21

7 Wisconsin vs. Purdue
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, Big Ten
Wisconsin -17
Raise your hand if you can name Wisconsin's starting quarterback and running back. No one? Well, start paying attention to the Badgers. With an easy schedule the rest of the way, it's possible Wisconsin will reach the Big Ten title game undefeated. Badgers 38-14

8 Washington State at Cal
Friday, 10:30 pm ET, ESPN
Washington State -15
Luke Falk and the Cougars were impressive in the second half at Oregon. The more folks doubt Mike Leach, the better Wazzu seems to play. A late Friday night in NoCal might be hazardous to some, but not this team. Washington State's defense is surprisingly good. Cougars 42-24

9 Ohio State at Nebraska
Saturday, 7:30 pm ET, FS1
Ohio State -24.5
Oh look, Ohio State is scoring points against the bottom of the Big Ten. The Buckeyes are back in the Top 10 by default. As long as JT Barrett and company don't have to face teams with a pulse, take OSU big. Buckeyes 45-17

10 Auburn at LSU
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, CBS
Auburn -7
The Tigers versus the Tigers. Since not scoring a TD at Clemson and struggling with Mercer, the Auburn offense has found its rhythm. The Bayou Bengals are hard to figure out. Get blown out by Mississippi State (who since has been labeled a fraud), squeak by Syracuse (who lost to Middle Tennessee State), lose at home to Troy (who lost Wednesday to South Alabama), then beat Florida in the Swamp. War Eagle 31-10

Must Watch
Georgia Tech at 11 Miami
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, ABC
Miami -5.5
Miami was dealt a big blow with starting running back Mark Walton's injury putting him out the rest of the year. The Canes finally picked up an emotional win at Florida State and now must prove they can prevent a letdown. Georgia Tech is right in the thick of the ACC Coastal race. The winner here has the inside track to the division title. Canes 35-30

GAME OF THE WEEK
It's known as "The Split" 'round these parts.
Burnt orange and Crimson split the Cotton Bowl at the 50-yard line.
12 Oklahoma vs. Texas (Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas)
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Oklahoma -8
With the Texas State Fair as its familiar backdrop, the Red River Showdown is second to none. Oklahomans hate Texas and the hate is reciprocated south of the Red River. A new era begins as Texas' Tom Herman and OU's Lincoln Riley etch their names in the books of this historic rivalry. Herman has been known to have his teams play up to their opponents and freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger has taken the reins under center. The Horns are 2-0 in conference play with back-to-back weeks against OU and Oklahoma State. A win over their crimson-colored rivals would signal the official "TEXAS BACK, Y'ALL!" However, Baker Mayfield and the Sooners are licking their wounds from a humbling loss to Iowa State. So far, OU has allowed 79 points in two Big 12 games, a far cry from the defensive effort put up in Columbus against the Buckeyes. Oklahoma is out to prove the ISU loss was a fluke. Make sure you're tuned in for this one. Sooners 41-37

 Utah at 13 USC
Saturday, 8 pm ET, ABC
USC -13
Utah suffered a heart-breaking loss last week at home to Stanford, which put a damper on this game. Now, both teams have a loss to a North Division foe. Still, this Pac-12 South battle will give the winner a leg up in the division. Sam Darnold needs a big game to restore his credibility. Utah just needs to bounce back after giving up 152 yards to Heisman candidate Bryce Love. In the Coliseum, the Trojans have the slight edge. Trojans 31-23

Keep An Eye On
24 Texas Tech at West Virginia
Saturday, Noon ET, ESPNU
West Virginia -3.5
Texas Tech has improved ever-so-slightly defensively, but the Red Raiders are not close to respectable on that side of the ball. West Virginia came close to taking down TCU last week. The Mountaineers love early home games against their Big 12 brethren, all of whom reside in Central Time. Mountaineers 45-37

Oregon at 23 Stanford
Saturday, 11 pm ET, FS1
Stanford -10.5
The good ole days of Stanford and Oregon being must-see Pac-12 action are gone. The Cardinal seem to be holding up their end of the bargain at 3-1 in the conference. The Ducks are 1-2 with this one and road games at UCLA and Washington still to come. Stanford's Love will be the difference maker and continues his march to the Heisman. Cardinal 30-20

 -BtW
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Sunday, October 8, 2017

The Morning After - Sluggish Saturday

A few ranked teams fell while others didn't look their sharpest. Yes, the calendar flipped to October and the race to the CFB Playoff is finally heating up. Conference matchups give us a much better indicator of who the real contenders and pretenders are. Let's take a deep dive into this weekend's action!

1st Quarter
Deon Cain torched WF early for a 28-yard score.
(Photo courtesy Clemson Athletics)
After getting off to a very impressive start with two touchdowns in the first nine minutes of the game, Clemson's offense sputtered to the finish line. It's happened in the past where it seems the first series or two of "scripted plays," as they say, work to perfection. Then, it's as if offensive play-caller Tony Elliott scrambles to find plays that work. Usually, things begin to click and everything works out, as was the case Saturday against Wake Forest. It's still bothersome and something I hope doesn't come back to bite us later.

As for the rest of the game, the best defense in the nation did its thing again, shutting out Wake through three quarters before giving way to the backups who allowed the Demon Deacons to score. Kelly Bryant getting hurt didn't help matters offensively. Backup Zerrick Cooper looked slightly lost and ill-prepared to enter the game. Hunter Johnson showed he was ready on his first drive, going 4-for-4 with a couple passes to fellow freshman Tee Higgins and a TD toss to tight end Cannon Smith.

The win gives Clemson a 6-0 record for the third straight season. It was the 20th straight over an ACC Atlantic division foe. It was the 11th straight overall, now the nation's longest active winning streak. And it assures the Tigers a spot in the AP Top 5 for a school-record 31st consecutive poll.

Tiger fans, these are the glory days. Enjoy them while they last. And beat Syracuse.

2nd Quarter
Speaking of not being able to finish, for the second straight game, the Oklahoma Sooners raced out to a double-digit lead only to see it slip away. Against Baylor, OU saw the Bears score 24 straight to take a 34-31 lead before rallying and pulling out a 49-41 win. It was a different story at home against the Iowa State Cyclones. OU's 24-10 lead turned into a 31-24 ISU lead. OU managed to tie it, but the Cyclones scored the game-winner and prevented the Sooners from rallying again.

It was a shocking upset of the No. 3 team in the land, but The Athletic's Matt Fortuna revealed this was the seventh straight season Oklahoma has lost as a game as a double-digit favorite. In most years, the Sooners have recovered and gone on to play in New Year's Six Bowls, or at least prevent the season from flopping completely. This, however, is a new squad with a new coach.

I told several folks prior to the season that I'd be interested to see how OU responds to adversity under new leadership. Can Lincoln Riley right the ship quickly, as Bob Stoops did so many times? Sooner Nation better hope he does because it is officially Texas Week.

On a grander scale, the Big 12's Playoff hopes now fall to TCU, the remaining unbeaten in the conference. The Horned Frogs have already knocked off Oklahoma State and West Virginia, meaning OU is their last major hurdle. As proven Saturday, though, no one in the Big 12 can be overlooked.

3rd Quarter
Of course Miami-Florida State came down to the wire. This time it wasn't decided by the kicking units. Florida State drove the field and scored with 1:24 to go to take a 20-17 lead. It was the first time James Blackman has looked like a capable quarterback. The Noles apparently left too much time, as Miami went 75 yards in 1:18 and scored on a wild pitch and catch to the front corner of the end zone.

With :11 to go and the ball inside the 20, the Canes decided they had time for one shot at a touchdown. Malik Rosier placed a perfect ball over the shoulder of Darrell Langham, who barely got across the goalline before his knee touched. The play was reviewed for quite some time. Several angles showed maybe it was a TD and maybe not. In the end, the play stood as called and the Canes ended a seven-game losing streak to FSU.

The win further pushes Miami into discussion of being a team to beat in the ACC Coastal Division. Florida State, on the other hand, is now 1-3 with games against Louisville, Clemson and Florida still remaining. Because of their cancelled game due to Hurricane Irma, three more losses would put FSU's final record at 5-6. Unless the NCAA grants some kind of waiver - or they benefit from not having enough teams bowl eligible and their APR scores are high enough - the Noles would be ineligible for a bowl. Quite the fall for a team that began the season No. 3 in the AP Poll.

4th Quarter
Luke Falk is the best player only about a third of the country knows. The Washington State quarterback is lighting up the Pac-12 and running Mike Leach's offense to perfection. Falk had another impressive night in Autzen Stadium against Oregon. He threw of 282 yards and three scores to lead Wazzu to a 6-0 record for the first time since 2001.

But the big story might be the Cougs' defense. WSU has looked impressive on that side of the ball. Last week, it was USC and Heisman hopeful Sam Darnold who were shut down (327 total yards, 164 pass yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT). This week, the Ducks were held to 278 total yards and 10 points at home. Oregon was averaging over 49 points per game and nearly 540 yards per game going in.

The opponents keep lining up, the analysts keep doubting, and Wazzu keeps knocking 'em off. Slowly but surely we're finding out that we need to take Washington State seriously. With a couple Top 10 losses this week, the Cougs will move into the Top 10, giving the Pac-12 - and the state of Washington - two highly-ranked teams.

It's also conceivable that Wazzu will be 9-0 (upcoming games against Cal, Arizona, and Colorado, each hovering .500) when the Cougs host Stanford on Nov. 4. If they get past the Cardinal, two road games at Utah and the Apple Cup at Washington loom large. That Apple Cup is going to be juicy.

Overtime
As for Washington, the Huskies quite simply are the class of the Pac-12. Washington has yet to be really tested and may not be for several more weeks. Up next is a road game at Arizona State, then home dates with UCLA and Oregon before a Friday night trip to Stanford. ... The Big Ten took a couple blows this weekend. First was the OU loss to Iowa State. Wait, OU is in the Big 12. Yes, but remember the Sooner team you saw that couldn't handle Iowa State is the same one that manhandled Ohio State at the Horseshoe. Later in the night, Michigan fell victim to "little brother" Michigan State at home. The Wolverines were at least expected to compete in the East Division, but games at Penn State and at home against Ohio State are still to come. The offensive struggles finally caught up to UM and are glaring going forward. ... NC State picked up a huge win Thursday night against Louisville, essentially knocking Lamar Jackson out of the Heisman race before it ever heated up. The win also asserted the Wolfpack as the hands-down contender to knock off Clemson in the Atlantic Division. NCSU hosts the Tigers on Nov. 4 in what could turn into the de facto division title game. ... As aforementioned, TCU is now the only undefeated team remaining in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs have a slightly easy road to travel until Nov. 11 when they visit Norman. TCU will likely be the favorite in all except the OU game, and even then they might be the favorite in that one.

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-BtW
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Thursday, October 5, 2017

PTT: Prediction Time Thursday - Week 6

Much better week by my standards, but disappointed that I picked against Clemson. That won't happen again. Getting the picks started early this week since there is intriguing action beginning tonight (Thursday). Here's where things stand heading into October.

2017 Record
Overall: 65-18 (.783 win %)
Last Week: 10-2
Game of the Week Pick: 2-3
*Rankings below reflect the AP Top 25

AP Top 10
1 Alabama at Texas A&M
Saturday, 7:15 pm ET, ESPN
Alabama -26
Alabama stomped Vandy and Ole Miss by a combined 125-3. While Texas A&M presents a slightly tougher challenge, the Aggies are far from being worthy competition for the Crimson Tide. It seems like this Bama team is on a mission. Jalen Hurts is playing at an extremely high level and showing why he was the SEC Offensive Player of the Year as a freshman. Tide 42-13

Wake Forest at 2 Clemson
Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN2
Clemson -21.5
In three conference games plus the game with Auburn, Clemson has looked much more impressive on the road than at home. Here comes Wake Forest, limping after a close but no cigar loss to Florida State. The Deacons' confidence might be shook, but they won't roll over in Death Valley. Kelly Bryant needs to prove the Tigers passing game should be taken seriously. Tigers 35-10 

 Iowa State at 3 Oklahoma
Saturday, Noon ET, Fox
Oklahoma -30
Baker Mayfield has been as close to perfect as one can be this season. He's yet to turn the ball over and is averaging just over four TD passes a game. Nothing changes here. Sooners 52-20

4 Penn State at Northwestern
Saturday, Noon ET, ABC
Penn State -13.5
Saquon Barkley is doing it all for the Nittany Lions. He'll get another chance to showcase his skills against a scrappy Northwestern squad. The Wildcats always play Penn State tough in Evanston. This PSU team is a little different. Lions 40-10

5 Georgia at Vanderbilt
Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN
Georgia -17.5
The Dawgs are en fuego right now, having taken down Mississippi State and Tennessee by a combined 72-3. Alabama proved Vandy was a fraud, as all should've expected. Now Georgia gets to have its way with the Dores. Dawgs 35-6

Cal at 6 Washington
Saturday, 10:45 pm ET, ESPN
Washington -27.5
Cal is playing teams close, but sits 0-2 in Pac-12 play. Washington had a slow start at Oregon State, but pulled away big in the second half. Jake Browning can sling it and his main target Dante Pettis is fun to watch. At night in Husky Stadium, this shouldn't be close. Other Dawgs 48-14

Michigan State at 7 Michigan
Saturday, 7:30 pm ET, ABC
Michigan -10.5
The last time these two got together in the Big House, all heck broke loose. Sparty pulled off the improbable victory on a blocked punt returned for a touchdown as timed expired. John O'Korn was second string to begin the season for a reason, but the Wolverines are simply better than their in-state rival. Wolverines 34-21

GAME OF THE WEEK
Kenny Hill has TCU in the Top 10 as we enter October,
a spot not many predicted the Horned Frogs would be.
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)
23 West Virginia at 8 TCU
Saturday, 3:30 ET, FS1
TCU -13.5
This is a surprise for Game of the Week. Following WVU's loss to Virginia Tech, the Mountaineers have put up 56, 59, and 56 points to get the offense rolling (albeit against East Carolina, Delaware State, and Kansas). Last we saw TCU, the Horned Frogs walked out of T. Boone Pickens Stadium with a 13-point win over then-No. 6 Oklahoma State. The Frogs behind Kenny Hill are looking like the Big 12 offense many thought they'd be. Defensively, Gary Patterson's team is living up to the expectation as well. That will be the difference Saturday. Frogs 41-27

9 Wisconsin at Nebraska
Saturday, 8 pm ET, Big Ten
Wisconsin -10.5
The Badgers keep chugging along while all the eyes are focused on the Big Ten East at the moment. Wisconsin hasn't received near enough praise, but they're probably OK with that. Nebraska needs a win bigtime. It'll be a great atmosphere to start, but once Big Red Nation realizes they can't compete with the big boys of the Big Ten, things will turn sour in Lincoln. Badgers 34-17

Maryland at 10 Ohio State
Saturday, 4 pm ET, Fox
Ohio State -31
Can anyone figure out Maryland? The Terps go on the road and put 51 points on Texas, then they lose at home 38-10 to UCF (who is a very good team, by the way). But it didn't stop there. Maryland knocked off an unbeaten Minnesota team on the road. Meanwhile, JT Barrett is looking better against weak competition, which is how Urban Meyer gets the respect back to his club. This may be close for a while, but Maryland can't hang that long with the Buckeyes. Bucks 45-17

Must Watch
17 Louisville at 24 NC State
Thursday, 8 pm ET, ESPN
Louisville -3
The atmosphere at Carter-Finley Stadium should be electric with the Wolfpack looking to assert themselves as the No. 2 team in the ACC Atlantic behind Clemson. Lamar Jackson still runs the show at Louisville, which means the Cards will put up some points. But NC State's defense can disrupt that just enough to get a big win. Pack 27-24

 13 Miami at Florida State
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Miami -3
Hurricane Irma forced this game to be moved here from what was supposed to be a Week 3 matchup. Now, the Noles look vulnerable and the Canes look like a Coastal Division contender. Whenever these two get together, it's fun to watch. There will be trash talk. There may be a scrum or two. And for some reason, this game loves to come down to the field goal units. Canes 24-23

11 Washington State at Oregon
Saturday, 8 pm ET, Fox
Washington State - 2.5
Luke Falk led Washington State to a huge win over USC last week at home. Now, the Cougars go on the road to a difficult place to play, Autzen Stadium. Mike Leach might think there are louder environments, but he didn't help his team out by calling out the Ducks faithful. I'm really excited for this one and hope it lives up to its billing. Cougs 44-35

 Stanford at 20 Utah
Saturday, 10:15 pm ET, FS1
Stanford -4.5
Bryce Love might be these best running back in the country west of Saquon Barkley. Love already has over 1,000 yards and has given Cardinal fans a good reason to forget about life without Christian McCaffrey. Rice-Eccles Stadium is no easy place to play, so I'm surprised to see the line this much in Stanford's favor. In fact, I'm buying undefeated Utah right now over two-loss Stanford. Utes 30-24

Keep An Eye On
Boise State at BYU
Friday, 10:15 pm ET, ESPN
Boise State -7.5
These two go back a long ways and the games are always hard-fought and down to the wire. They are two of the most recognizable non-Power 5 programs of the last decade. Even though BYU hasn't had quite the season it'd hoped for, they Cougars won't lay down at home. Boise State lost a stunner to Virginia two weeks ago, so the Broncos had time to regroup for the remainder of the season. What else are you gonna do on a Friday night? Broncos 31-17

LSU at 21 Florida
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, CBS
Florida -2
Ah, finally LSU goes to Florida. Should be good times in Gainesville after last year's bicker-fest. Neither team is fun to watch, but the hatred from Gators fans toward LSU will make it enjoyable. Gators 20-10

 Kansas State at Texas
Saturday, 7 pm ET, FS1
Texas -4.5 
Is Texas back yet? It seems like every week we are hearing about the Horns and whether they are back or back to being meh. Kansas State hasn't played like many thought they would early on. The SnyderCats have a road loss at Vandy and a closer than expected win over winless Baylor. Can they go on the road and beat a fickle Tom Herman Texas team that is offensively-challenged? Honestly, who knows? Cats 24-20

-BtW
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Sunday, October 1, 2017

The Morning After - No Sandman Needed

Clemson's defense swarmed the Hokies all night.
(Photo courtesy Clemson Athletics)
Since Dabo Swinney took over Clemson, the Tigers are 5-0 against Virginia Tech - two games in Blacksburg, two in the ACC title game, and one in Clemson. Swinney's Tigers have scored 23, 38, 38, 42, and 31 points against Bud Foster's defenses. The Hokies have managed to score more than 17 points only once - last season's ACC Championship Game in which Clemson won 42-35. The other outcomes have been by two scores or more each, including Saturday night's 31-17 Tiger victory. When Dabo and VT meet, the beasts under the bed - as in the familiar "Enter Sandman" lyrics - are the Tigers waiting to put the Hokies to sleep.

1st Quarter
I admit it. I was foolish. I picked against Clemson again. My reasoning wasn't so much that I felt Clemson would play bad, but moreso that Virginia Tech would play up - College Gameday in town, night game at Lane Stadium, game circled since last year's ACC Championship Game, etc., etc.

I was wrong. I should've known. I should've listened. Dabo Swinney has built Clemson into a powerhouse. Clemson is no longer the program it was in the 90s and 00s. This program has won 10 games six straight seasons. It has played in back-to-back National Championship Games, winning the most recent one. It doesn't rebuild when its best playmakers move on. It reloads - for the most part with better players.

Kelly Bryant was once again tremendous in a hostile road environment. Clemson's defense was lights out. Until a garbage time touchdown, the Hokies had one touchdown drive. It lasted all of one play, two yards, thanks to a punt return to the two yard line. Virginia Tech couldn't sustain drives. The Hokies went three-and-out on four of their first five series. The one where they got a first down? They got one first down and punted. Dorian O'Daniel notched his second pick-six, this one to seal the deal. Austin Bryant also came up with a spectacular INT. It warranted Wide Receivers Coach Jeff Scott saying he needed to get Bryant a #WRU T-shirt. Bryant may also petition for a cornerback spot. He lined up on a fourth down out by the numbers and obliterated a wide receiver screen better than any defensive back ever has.

And that's what this team is. It's a team of freak athletes. Ones that play defensive end, but look like linebackers. Running backs with out of this world speed. And receivers with hands you swear have stick'em on them.

I spoke with a great friend of mine with whom I text throughout a lot of the Clemson games and I told him, this team is like a boa constrictor. They slowly wrap around the opponent and begin to squeeze. It's not flashy. There's not a lot happening like the quick strike rattle snake or the dancing cobra. Just a slow, methodical death grip. The more the opponents try to escape with trick plays and all the eye-candy moving shifts, the tighter the grip gets. Ask Louisville. Ask Auburn. And now ask Virginia Tech. The life of their team slowly slipped away. They saw it coming, but there was nothing they could do about it once face-to-face with the snak-, I mean, Tigers.

What a time to be a Tiger, y'all.

2nd Quarter
Let's back up to Friday night when Washington State knocked off USC on the Palouse. Luke Falk out-dueled Sam Darnold. It feels like this win effective eliminates USC from Playoff contention and we're only just now in October. On the other hand, we should be giving some serious thought to Washington State.

This is the second straight year that Mike Leach has Wazzu highly ranked. A loss in the Apple Cup to rival Washington ended hopes of a division title, but we could be well on our way to the Apple Cup winner deciding the Pac-12 North again. Washington looks like the better overall team, right now anyway. However, Washington State put the league on notice that it can take down anyone, including the Pac-12 favorite Trojans.

3rd Quarter
A couple of double-takes when looking at SEC games this weekend. First was Georgia destroying Tennessee in Neyland Stadium, 41-0. The Dawgs did it with a freshman QB, no less. Jake Fromm is playing like anything but a freshman. He's got Georgia all the way up to No. 5 in the rankings and many believe this team has a shot to dethrone Alabama. It certainly appears that UGA will represent the East, because Florida is meh and no one else looks competitive. As for Tennessee, I am shocked we haven't heard of Butch Jones' firing yet. It's inevitable, right? Sorry, but you don't lose on your home field 41-0 the week after chastising the media.

Then there was LSU. It's like the Bayou Bengals saw the Tennessee loss and wanted to one-up the Vols. Troy went into Tiger Stadium at night and tamed the Tigers. A 24-7 game ended 24-21 with Troy still on top, but aside from the late comeback, this one was all Trojans.

So let's recap the past few weeks. Mississippi State curb-stomps LSU 37-7, then gets embarrassed at Georgia 31-3 and at Auburn 49-10. LSU already has a terrible loss, nearly loses at home to Syracuse, then does lose to Troy. Ole Miss has back-to-back losses to Cal and Alabama, the latter by a score of 66-3 after having a bye week to prepare for the Tide. Vandy was the flavor of the week, until it played Alabama (and lost 59-0) and Florida (and lost 38-24). Texas A&M has a pair of seven-point wins over Arkansas and South Carolina, but the Aggies get to host Bama this weekend. The Gamecocks and all-world Jake Bentley scored 17 points to beat La Tech in the last minute 17-16, then scored 17 again and lost to A&M. In fact, they haven't scored more than 17 since Sept. 9.

This is the conference everyone thinks is the best top-to-bottom? Give me a break.

4th Quarter
The jury is still out on Oklahoma State, even though the Cowboys got a much-needed bounce-back win over Texas Tech, their ninth in a row in the series. OSU allowed the Red Raiders to score 14 straight to tie the game late, but got a Mason Rudolph TD with just over a minute to go to pull out the win. The Pokes get a bye week to regroup and refocus before hosting currently winless Baylor and then going on the road to Texas and West Virginia before Bedlam.

The Big 12 is a three-team race with Oklahoma and TCU at the top and OSU waiting in the wings if either of them stumble. OU plays both the Cowboys and Horned Frogs on back-to-back weekends to kickoff November, so we may not know much about the Big 12 race until then. Kansas State and West Virginia are also teams to watch, but both of them have out-of-conference losses holding them back for now.

Overtime
I'm going to use this space this week to blast the poll voters. First, your "votes" mean nothing. The only poll that matters is the one that comes out after the conference championship games. And that one isn't yours, it's the Playoff Committee's, who the folks diligently studying each contending team are doing a much better job ranking them than you are. Is that why you are so petty with your votes? Second, how can you rightfully look at Clemson's rΓ©sumΓ©, compare it to Alabama's, and think, hmm, clearly Alabama is the better team. Forty-four AP Poll voters out of 61 put Alabama on top. That is a change of +9 for Clemson, who only had eight first-place votes last week. This despite Clemson becoming the first team in college football history to beat three Top 15 teams before the calendar flipped to October. This despite Clemson going on the road and taking down the reigning Heisman winner and a hungry Hokie team by a combined 40 points. This despite Alabama's "best win" is over now unranked and 1-2 Florida State.

It's worse in the Coaches Poll, where Clemson gained just two additional first-place votes. Are y'all that scared of what Nick Saban might say at his press conference? Are you too prideful to drop almighty Alabama off their perch because, hey, another team not only looks as good or better, but has proven it on the field with their wins? Good for Bama beating Vanderbilt and Ole Miss like a drum. They should. Vandy was picked sixth in the East. A horrendous division, mind you. And Ole Miss was picked last in the West. So the Crimson Tide winning 59-0 and 66-3 isn't all that shocking, nor impressive.

You know what is? Clemson. Little ole Clemson who, "How are they gonna replace all those offensive stars?" is now 5-0 and owns a 92-44 point margin over THREE Top 15 teams.

Here's what I'll tell you. Keep us at No. 2. Seriously. Go ahead. Bow down to Bama. Praise Saban. Because all you're doing is giving Dabo more locker room material. You're feeding the "nobody believes in us" monster that YOU created. Vegas will probably tell you that Alabama is a 6-7 point favorite over Clemson if they were to play this week. And you'll listen like you always do. Thanks for giving us everything we need to go back to the Playoff again. And make it back to the title game where we will face Alabama again. And for the second time in three games, we'll prove we're better.

But you might believe that either.

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-BtW
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Friday, September 29, 2017

PTF: Prediction Time Friday - Week 5

BENched took a few chances and they went awry. It's early in the season, so that was expected. You live and learn and move forward. Going to try something a little different this week with the picks. Let's do it!

2017 Record
Overall: 55-16 (.775 win %)
Last Week: 9-8
Game of the Week Pick: 2-2
*Rankings below reflect the AP Top 25

AP Top 10
Ole Miss at 1 Alabama
Saturday, 9 pm ET, ESPN
Alabama -27
Remember when the Rebels were a thorn in Nick Saban's side? They won't be again for a long, long time. Tide 51-12

GAME OF THE WEEK
Can the Tigers survive Lane Stadium?
2 Clemson at 12 Virginia Tech
Saturday, 8 pm ET, ABC
Clemson -7.5
We've arrived at the exact week of the season when I picked against Clemson one year ago. I took Louisville to down the Tigers last season. Fortunately, I was wrong. A year later, you'd think I'd've learned my lesson. I simply feel like this Hokie team is different. Yes, Josh Jackson is a freshman quarterback going against the best defensive line in the country. Yes, Clemson is battle-tested, having already defeated two Top-15 teams. Yes, Kelly Bryant played cool, calm, and collected in his first road start. But something feels much different than two weeks ago at Louisville. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic about my team. I don't have an Xs and Os breakdown of why I think Virginia Tech will win. To be honest, Clemson making it through September 4-1 would be a really good thing. If they are 5-0 after Saturday night, we could really be in for Bama-Clemson III. For now, I'll pull the reins back. Hokies 20-17

 (NOTE: After I typed this Thursday evening, I received my IPTAY package in the mail Friday afternoon and am having serious second thoughts. Perhaps that was a good omen? We'll see.)

3 Oklahoma - BYE

Indiana at 4 Penn State
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, Big Ten
Penn State -18
It would not be surprising to see Penn State have a bit of a hangover following last week's thrilling win at Iowa. Getting Indiana at home for that hangover game helps. Lions 31-16

5 USC at 16 Washington State
Friday, 10:30 pm ET, ESPN
USC -5
I'm sensing either a wild shootout on the Palouse or a Friday night stinker. Wazzu is the trendy pick. I like Luke Falk slightly more than Sam Darnold right now. Statistically, Falk's having a much better season than the guy that's getting the Heisman love. I'm just not convinced the Cougs are ready to show out in primetime. Trojans 38-28

6 Washington at Oregon State
Saturday, 8 pm ET, Pac-12
Washington -26.5
Can't see this one being much of a game. The Huskies took it to Colorado last week. Expect even worse for the Beavs. Dawgs 52-7

7 Georgia at Tennessee
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, CBS
Georgia -7.5
The Georgia-Tennessee game has been decided by eight points or less each of the past six years. Expect it to be close. Tennessee is winless in its last 24 games against teams ranked in the Top 10 since 2008. Expect Georgia to make it 0-25. Other Dawgs 34-27

8 Michigan - BYE

9 TCU - BYE

Northwestern at 10 Wisconsin
Saturday, Noon ET, ABC
Wisconsin -14.5
Somehow, this game will be low scoring and close because Big Ten football. Badgers 21-9

Must Watch
14 Miami at Duke
Friday, 7 pm ET, ESPN
Miami -6.5
Get your weekend started with an enticing matchup between two undefeated ACC Coastal schools. The Hurricanes found new life in the second half last week against Toledo. Duke used a balanced attack to knock off rival North Carolina. Both teams are looking to get a leg up in the standings. As much as I'd like to pick Duke and think David Cutcliffe has this team squarely in contention, Miami has too many weapons. Canes 34-20

 15 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Saturday, 8pm ET, Fox
Oklahoma State -10.5
It seems like no matter what, Oklahoma State can't lose to Texas Tech. A night game in Lubbock is no cakewalk, though. Tortillas will be flying as will the football through the air. I'm guessing this one will be pretty high-scoring. Get your popcorn ready. Pokes 58-45

Keep An Eye On
Florida State at Wake Forest
Saturday, 3:30 pm ET, ABC
Florida State -7.5
How odd is it that we have winless Florida State visiting undefeated Wake Forest? FSU's troubles are highly concerning. No one can block up front and I wasn't overly impressed with freshman quarterback James Blackman. Wake may be able to get a steal here, but I'm sticking with the Noles to finally get a W. Noles 27-20

 24 Mississippi State at 13 Auburn
Saturday, 6 pm ET, ESPN
Auburn -9
So maybe Mississippi State isn't that good after all. And maybe Auburn's offense just needed to be completely healthy. Either way, this one could get ugly on the Plains. Auburn 40-17

 Cal at Oregon
Saturday, 10:30 pm ET, FS1
Oregon -15
Cal took USC to the brink and Oregon had trouble stopping Arizona State. It is full-on #Pac12AfterDark in Eugene. Ducks 45-42

-BtW
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Sunday, September 24, 2017

The Morning After - Survival Saturday

I called this weekend "sneaky good" and it delivered. A few upsets happened, beginning with Virginia knocking off Boise State Friday night on The Blue Turf, and many others were close to happening. My thoughts on the day that was college football Saturday.

1st Quarter
Kendall Joseph (34) was all over the field Saturday.
(Photo courtesy Clemson Athletics)
Sandwiched between two tough road games, Clemson came away with a 34-7 win over Boston College in the proverbial trap game. No, this game was not a blowout as the score indicates. And no, Clemson fans weren't thrilled about a 7-7 score in the fourth quarter. What I am pleased with was that this team faced some adversity (again - think Auburn) and overcame it in a big way (again). Kelly Bryant's passing was off. The defense was letting BC into Clemson territory all game, but stiffened up. The offense had starting field position inside its own 10 yard line half the game. At the end of the day, Clemson was the superior team and the athletic advantage swung in the Tigers' favor midway through the fourth quarter.

Bryant ran for 102 yards and scored twice. Freshman running back Travis Etienne rushed for 113 yards and scored twice in the fourth quarter, giving Clemson the spark it needed. The Tigers outgained the Eagles 482-238, rushed for 342 yards, converted half their third downs (8 for 16), and had 27 first downs to BC's 12. Those were some of the highlights that stood out and what I will try to remember about this game going forward.

Going into next week, though, things need to be cleaned up. An offensive performance like those first three quarters will result in a loss Saturday night in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is fast and physical, much like Auburn. The difference? The Hokies have an offense. Clemson's defense will face its first team challenge. Stopping a one-man show (Lamar Jackson) is one thing, but slowing down the Hokies won't be easy. Beat Virginia Tech.

2nd Quarter
TCU waltzed into the house that T. Boone Pickens built and poked the Cowboys where it hurts most. See what I did there? The Horned Frogs put the Big 12 and the rest of the country on notice that not only does it have a defense that can slow down one of the most prolific offenses, but it has an offense that will contend with the best. Gary Patterson has TCU on the right track once again. I'd like to see a little consistency first before putting them in the Playoff. The Frogs have to go to K-State, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech, the latter two back-to-back. Long way to go.

As for OSU, that was a big bite of humble pie. Mike Gundy went on record as saying he didn't know how anyone was going to stop his offense. You've been served. But he's a man, he's 50! He can take it. His Cowboys now face the fact that they were beaten soundly at home and still have the entire Big 12 slate to go, including next week at Texas Tech, plus a late October-early November stretch at Texas, at West Virginia, and versus OU. And the blueprint for how to beat the Pokes is out there.

3rd Quarter
Georgia catapulted to the top of the SEC East with it's dominant win from start to finish over Mississippi State. BENched was wrong about which Bulldogs would show up to play. Kudos to Kirby Smart for making me look dumb. He had a great gameplan to stop MSU's Nick Fitzgerald. We saw freshman Jake Fromm grow up right before our eyes. I thought the big game atmosphere might get to him a bit. The opposite occurred. He was just 9-for-12 passing, but had 201 yards and two scores, including the beautiful flea-flicker for a 59-yard TD on the first play of the game.

Talk of Mississippi State being the team that could challenge Alabama in the West came to a halt. Now, the SEC is two teams - Bama in the West, and Georgia in the East.

4th Quarter
The Penn State Nittany Lions passed their first big test, one that many teams fail. Trace McSorley's touchdown pass as time expired gave college football the game of the year. It was an ugly game. No one will refer back to it as a season-defining win. The Lions will get credit, however, for winning a road game in a tough venue early in the season, something they failed to do twice last year (at Pitt and at Michigan). James Franklin's bunch showed resolve. They'll have a few more battles coming up, but Oct. 21 at home against Michigan is looming large.

On the Heisman front - and I hate to do this so early in the year - Saquon Barkley served notice to all the quarterbacks out there that he may be the most explosive player in the game. He juked, hurdled, and carried Hawkeye defenders all night. He won't get the glory of the game-winning score, but if not for him, it's likely PSU wouldn't have been in the game at all.

Overtime
After jumping out to a 28-10 lead, Oklahoma watched Baylor grab momentum and reel off 21 straight points to take a 31-28 lead in the third quarter. Baker Mayfield's third touchdown pass of the night gave OU the lead back and then the Sooners gave the Bears a Sermon, Trey Sermon that is. The freshman entered the game and carried the ball 12 times for 148 yards and two scores to put the game just out of reach enough. It was a scare OU fans didn't like to see, but Lincoln Riley gets a bye week to regroup before heading full steam into Big 12 play. ... NC State pulled off a shocker in Tallahassee, handing the Seminoles their second loss of the year in just their second game. The Wolfpack defensive front frustrated freshman QB James Blackman all game. FSU now goes back to the drawing board without a win and staring down an ACC schedule with current unbeatens Wake Forest, Miami, and Duke as their next three opponents, and of course Clemson down the road with Louisville and Florida as well. Serious question, will the Noles make a bowl game? Also serious question, is NC State Clemson's biggest threat in the Atlantic division? ... A&M and Arkansas produced a shootout in the Southwest Classic, with the Aggies winning another OT game against the Hogs, 50-43. Too bad all this game does is put one coach on the hotter seat and give the other fanbase reason to fret how their coach will screw up after this win. ... USC wasn't overly impressive in a win at Cal, but the Trojans forced six turnovers and pulled out a 10-point road conference victory. That's good enough for now. ... Michigan found its quarterback, John O'Korn, for now. The Wolverines had some offensive life at Purdue and get a bye week to get O'Korn more reps with the ones before hosting in-state rival Michigan State. ... I can't leave out the performance by Alabama. Man, that was scary. But just remember, that was a bunch of four- and five-stars beating up a bunch of afterthought recruits. No need to make this one bigger than it really is. ... Last but not least, #Pac12AfterDark gave us Washington doing to Colorado the same thing it did in last year's title game, Arizona State scoring an upset over the 24th-ranked Oregon Ducks, and Stanford racing past UCLA 58-34. Staying up late isn't easy, but it's usually worth it.

Tiger Tweets




































-BtW 
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