Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Rapid Reax: Not much changed in Playoff poll, but changes are afoot

A week after half the Top 10 lost, only one of the Playoff Committee Top 10 teams fell during Week 12. That was Louisville, which was crushed by Houston, 36-10. Not much changed other than that, but we are less than two weeks away from finding out who goes to Atlanta and Glendale, and who doesn't.

A little reminder: The rankings today have absolute no bearing on the final rankings on Dec. 4. If a team is ahead of another team now and both win out, they can flip-flop. Here's the Playoff Committee's Top 10:

The Playoff Poll Top 10
  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Michigan
  4. Clemson
  5. Washington
  6. Wisconsin
  7. Penn State
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Colorado
  10. Oklahoma State
Alabama remains No. 1 as the only Power 5 undefeated team. The Crimson Tide collide with rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl this Saturday. The game is in Tuscaloosa and the Tide are favored by 17.
Michigan made snow angels after beating Indiana.
Will the Wolverines be able to celebrate a win at Ohio State?
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)

Despite both team's struggles, Ohio State and Michigan will head into their annual meeting ranked No. 2 and 3. This will be the second time in the rivalry's history that the two teams are in the Top 3. The Buckeyes struggled with three-win Michigan State while the Wolverines were in a battle with Indiana. For at least the next ranking, the winner of this game will remain in the Top 4, while the loser will suffer its second loss and be eliminated from Playoff contention (barring more chaos).

The intriguing thing here is a Michigan win sends the Wolverines to the Big Ten title game, whereas an Ohio State win combined with a Penn State win would put the Nittany Lions in Indianapolis. If the Buckeyes win, but don't get a chance to win the conference, it will be interesting to see where the committee places OSU in the final ranking on Dec. 4 with just one loss, but without a conference championship.

Clemson handled its business with Wake Forest and stays at No. 4. The Tigers have in-state rival South Carolina visiting Death Valley Saturday before heading to Orlando for the ACC Championship Game.

Washington moved up to fifth thanks to Louisville's loss. The Huskies are in great position to slide into the Top 4 ahead of the Michigan-Ohio State loser. UW must get by Washington State in the Apple Cup to win the Pac-12 North.

Other thoughts:
  • Wisconsin and Penn State remain behind Washington, which will make it tough for them to jump the Huskies even if one of them claims the Big Ten Championship. If Washington has a Pac-12 title and just one loss, compared to two losses by the Badgers and Nittany Lions.
  • Oklahoma benefitted from a road win over a Top 15 team. The Sooners, though, take a week off before hosting Oklahoma State in the Bedlam game and the unofficial - but official - Big 12 championship game. It will be important for OU or OSU to be playing on the final weekend of the season, but taking this weekend off could also hurt as everyone around them is playing in a meaningful game.
  • Despite its loss, Louisville (No. 11) remains ahead of Florida State (No. 14) in the poll. That gives the Cards a chance at the Orange Bowl bid should Clemson win out and make the Playoff. Louisville absolutely needs to beat Kentucky this weekend to stay ahead of FSU.
  • Western Michigan, the only other unebaten team in the land, stayed at No. 21, while Boise State moved up to No. 19. Houston, previously unranked, also moved ahead of WMU at No. 20.
  • Interesting for the Pac-12 with Washington out front, but with a big game at Wazzu; Colorado can clinch the South title at home against Utah. The Pac-12 championship could end up deciding the fourth team in the Playoff. If Washington wins, they more than likely would be in at 12-1. If Colorado wins, there'd be lots to debate.
  • The Pac-12 leads the way with six teams in the Top 25; Big Ten has five, including four in the top seven (Nebraska is 16th); SEC has four, while the Big 12 and ACC have three each.
CFB Playoff and New Year's Six Bowl Projections (Based on current rankings)
  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Clemson
  • PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan
  • Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 11 Louisville vs. No. 7 Penn State
  • Goodyear Cotton Bowl: No. 9 Colorado vs. No. 21 Western Michigan
  • Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 5 Washington vs. No. 6 Wisconsin
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Auburn
    -BtW

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