Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Rapid Reax: Playoff Poll all mixed up

When Saturday ended, half of the Playoff Committee's Top 10 had fallen. Ultimately, there was already a gap between several of the top teams and everyone else. How did the Committee piece together the rankings this week? And do I think they got it right?

Let's get this out of the way now: The rankings today have absolute no bearing on the final rankings on Dec. 4. If a team is ahead of another team now and both win out, they can flip-flop. Here's the Playoff Committee's Top 10:

The Playoff Poll Top 10
  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Michigan
  4. Clemson
  5. Louisville
  6. Washington
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Penn State
  9. Oklahoma
  10. Colorado
Jalen Hurts and Alabama are running away from the field.
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)
Of course, Alabama is No. 1. The Crimson Tide are the only unbeaten Power 5 team (Western Michigan is the only other undefeated team). Alabama has looked the part of a champion and is almost assured a spot in the Playoff when the final rankings come out.

Here's where things get hairy. Ohio State comes in at No. 2 leading the one-loss teams. It appears the eye-test and the talented roster have given the Buckeyes the edge. No problem with them here, but what will happen to them if they don't even win their division in the Big Ten?

At No. 3 is Michigan with Clemson at No. 4. These two are interchangeable for me, but it's hard for me to see what Michigan did to deserve to remain ranked third this week after a loss in which it scored 13 points and had just 200 yards of total offense. In the end, Michigan and Ohio State will play each other in two weekends, so that will sort itself out.

It's pretty clear that if any of these teams in the Top 8 win out - that includes No. 8 Penn State and No. 7 Wisconsin - there's a great chance with a conference championship that they have a strong argument to be in the Playoff.

Tenth-ranked Colorado could make a big move as well. The Buffs final two games are at home against No. 22 Washington State and No. 12 Utah. If they win both, they will be in the Pac-12 title game likely against No. 6 Washington. Three wins against ranked opponents at the end of the season could give Colorado a jolt in the rankings.

Other thoughts:
  • Undefeated Western Michigan is ranked 21st and behind one-loss Boise State, which is 20th. This is important because the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion earns an automatic bid to the New Year's Six Bowls. Boise State still needs to help to become the Mountain West champion, so it may not matter much anyway.
  • West Virginia, at 8-1, sits behind a lot of two-loss teams. Some of those I can't really argue. But for the Mountaineers to be behind 7-3 USC is atrocious.
  • The Big 12 altogether is interesting. Oklahoma is the highest-ranked team, but has two losses to Ohio State and Houston. Oklahoma State gave West Virginia its lone loss, but the Cowboys are 8-2 with a loss to declining Baylor and Central Michigan. OU plays both WVU and OSU in the coming weeks. Time will tell what the committee thinks of the Big 12 champion.
  • SEC and Pac-12 each have six teams in the Top 25; Big Ten has five, including four of the top eight; ACC and Big 12 have three apiece. Those are pivotal for teams jockeying for position late in the season, as the committee will weigh Top 25 wins.
CFB Playoff and New Year's Six Bowl Projections (Based on current rankings)
  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Clemson
  • PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan
  • Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 8 Penn State
  • Goodyear Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 21 Western Michigan
  • Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 6 Washington vs. No. 7 Wisconsin
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 15 Auburn
-BtW

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