Reax: Interesting debates as penultimate Playoff Ranking revealed

Not a whole lot changed from last week, considering previously No. 3 Michigan fell on the road in double overtime at No. 2 Ohio State. The only other mover in the Top 10 of the Playoff Committee ranking was Colorado jumping Oklahoma. The Sooners were off, while the Buffaloes took down Utah to clinch the Pac-12 South. Here's the Top 10 and some thoughts, courtesy of BENched.

A quick reminder: The rankings today have absolute no bearing on the final rankings on Dec. 4. If a team is ahead of another team now and both win out, they can flip-flop. Here's the Playoff Committee's Top 10:

The Playoff Poll Top 10

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. Penn State
8. Colorado
9. Oklahoma
10. Oklahoma State

Alabama is all but assured a spot in the College Football Playoff. Even if the Crimson Tide lose to Florida in the SEC Championship Game, they will surely not fall out of the Top 4.

Ohio State held onto its No. 2 ranking, while Clemson and Washington each moved up one spot to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively. Two years ago, the Committee dropped TCU from No. 3 to No. 6 because it did not play in a conference championship game, thus not collecting a "13th data point." Ohio State also won't be playing in a championship game, but everyone seems to think the Buckeyes are guaranteed a Playoff spot.

I have a lot of thoughts on this, but the most prevalent right now is that it is hard for me to understand why Ohio State gets a virtual bye week, whilst Clemson and Washington are in must-win games against ranked opponents. If Clemson or Washington lose, they'll be out of the Playoff. Ohio State gets to enjoy the weekend on the couch.

The Huskies are excited to be back in the Top 4.
Washington needs a win Friday over Colorado in the
Pac-12 title game to remain there. We think.
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

Michigan dropped to fifth and is the first of three straight Big Ten teams (after Ohio State). Wisconsin and Penn State, the two teams playing in the Big Ten Championship Game, follow at sixth and seventh. The winner more than likely jumps Michigan, but the question remains if the Committee will put the Big Ten champ in the Top 4. All season, the Committee has said the Big Ten is the best conference and the metrics prove that. So, how can the champion of that conference be left out of the Playoff?

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are behind Colorado, meaning Bedlam will simply be for the Big 12 title and a trip to the Sugar Bowl. Even if Clemson and Washington lose, the Bedlam winner will be competing with: Michigan, the Big Ten champion, and Colorado for the final two spots. Advantage: those other teams.

Other thoughts:

• The SEC had three teams that lost this past weekend remain in the Top 25. That's not all too shocking. What is baffling is how those three teams - Auburn, Florida and Tennessee - somehow managed to drop a combined six spots. Auburn fell one spot from 13 to 14, despite an 18-point loss at Alabama. Florida also lost by 18 at Florida State, but the Gators remained exactly where they were a week ago at 15th. And Tennessee was pummeled by a 5-6 Vanderbilt team by 11 points and only dropped five spots from 17 to 22. LSU entered the rankings at No. 21 after beating unranked Texas A&M.
• Auburn, the highest ranked of that group is in the best shape to head to the Sugar Bowl, as the SEC representative. That would pit the Bedlam winner against the Tigers in New Orleans.
• Louisville and Florida State give us another interesting debate. The Cardinals and Seminoles are both 9-3. Louisville has lost its last two games to Houston and Kentucky, while Florida State has won four straight, including the 31-13 win over Top 15 Florida. Louisville went 7-1 in the ACC; FSU went 5-3. And Louisville beat FSU 63-20 back in September. Yet, the Noles are ranked 12th and Louisville is 13th. This makes sense from a "FSU is playing better right now" perspective. But if the two teams are so close that they are one spot apart, how is head-to-head not used, especially when that head-to-head result is a 43-point shellacking?
• That said, I actually agree that FSU is the better team right now.
• Western Michigan is now the highest ranked Group of 5 team at No. 17. The Broncos are undefeated and play for the MAC Championship Friday night against Ohio. A win in Detroit all but guarantees they will be headed to the Cotton Bowl.
• That is unless Navy, which is No. 19 but has two losses, impresses the committee more by winning the AAC. It's possible, but not probable, that the Midshipmen could jump Western Michigan and claim that coveted spot in the New Year's Six.

CFB Playoff and New Year's Six Bowl Projections (Based on current rankings)

• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington
• PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
• Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 Florida State
• Goodyear Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 17 Western Michigan
• Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Colorado
• Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Auburn

-BtW

Rapid Reax: Not much changed in Playoff poll, but changes are afoot

A week after half the Top 10 lost, only one of the Playoff Committee Top 10 teams fell during Week 12. That was Louisville, which was crushed by Houston, 36-10. Not much changed other than that, but we are less than two weeks away from finding out who goes to Atlanta and Glendale, and who doesn't.

A little reminder: The rankings today have absolute no bearing on the final rankings on Dec. 4. If a team is ahead of another team now and both win out, they can flip-flop. Here's the Playoff Committee's Top 10:

The Playoff Poll Top 10

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Clemson
5. Washington
6. Wisconsin
7. Penn State
8. Oklahoma
9. Colorado
10. Oklahoma State

Alabama remains No. 1 as the only Power 5 undefeated team. The Crimson Tide collide with rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl this Saturday. The game is in Tuscaloosa and the Tide are favored by 17.

Michigan made snow angels after beating Indiana.
Will the Wolverines be able to celebrate a win at Ohio State?
(Photo courtesy USA Today Sports)

Despite both team's struggles, Ohio State and Michigan will head into their annual meeting ranked No. 2 and 3. This will be the second time in the rivalry's history that the two teams are in the Top 3. The Buckeyes struggled with three-win Michigan State while the Wolverines were in a battle with Indiana. For at least the next ranking, the winner of this game will remain in the Top 4, while the loser will suffer its second loss and be eliminated from Playoff contention (barring more chaos).

The intriguing thing here is a Michigan win sends the Wolverines to the Big Ten title game, whereas an Ohio State win combined with a Penn State win would put the Nittany Lions in Indianapolis. If the Buckeyes win, but don't get a chance to win the conference, it will be interesting to see where the committee places OSU in the final ranking on Dec. 4 with just one loss, but without a conference championship.

Clemson handled its business with Wake Forest and stays at No. 4. The Tigers have in-state rival South Carolina visiting Death Valley Saturday before heading to Orlando for the ACC Championship Game.

Washington moved up to fifth thanks to Louisville's loss. The Huskies are in great position to slide into the Top 4 ahead of the Michigan-Ohio State loser. UW must get by Washington State in the Apple Cup to win the Pac-12 North.

Other thoughts:

• Wisconsin and Penn State remain behind Washington, which will make it tough for them to jump the Huskies even if one of them claims the Big Ten Championship. If Washington has a Pac-12 title and just one loss, compared to two losses by the Badgers and Nittany Lions.
• Oklahoma benefitted from a road win over a Top 15 team. The Sooners, though, take a week off before hosting Oklahoma State in the Bedlam game and the unofficial - but official - Big 12 championship game. It will be important for OU or OSU to be playing on the final weekend of the season, but taking this weekend off could also hurt as everyone around them is playing in a meaningful game.
• Despite its loss, Louisville (No. 11) remains ahead of Florida State (No. 14) in the poll. That gives the Cards a chance at the Orange Bowl bid should Clemson win out and make the Playoff. Louisville absolutely needs to beat Kentucky this weekend to stay ahead of FSU.
• Western Michigan, the only other unebaten team in the land, stayed at No. 21, while Boise State moved up to No. 19. Houston, previously unranked, also moved ahead of WMU at No. 20.
• Interesting for the Pac-12 with Washington out front, but with a big game at Wazzu; Colorado can clinch the South title at home against Utah. The Pac-12 championship could end up deciding the fourth team in the Playoff. If Washington wins, they more than likely would be in at 12-1. If Colorado wins, there'd be lots to debate.
• The Pac-12 leads the way with six teams in the Top 25; Big Ten has five, including four in the top seven (Nebraska is 16th); SEC has four, while the Big 12 and ACC have three each.

CFB Playoff and New Year's Six Bowl Projections (Based on current rankings)

• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Clemson
• PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan
• Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 11 Louisville vs. No. 7 Penn State
• Goodyear Cotton Bowl: No. 9 Colorado vs. No. 21 Western Michigan
• Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 5 Washington vs. No. 6 Wisconsin
• Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Auburn

-BtW

Rapid Reax: Playoff Poll all mixed up

When Saturday ended, half of the Playoff Committee's Top 10 had fallen. Ultimately, there was already a gap between several of the top teams and everyone else. How did the Committee piece together the rankings this week? And do I think they got it right?

Let's get this out of the way now: The rankings today have absolute no bearing on the final rankings on Dec. 4. If a team is ahead of another team now and both win out, they can flip-flop. Here's the Playoff Committee's Top 10:

The Playoff Poll Top 10

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Clemson
5. Louisville
6. Washington
7. Wisconsin
8. Penn State
9. Oklahoma
10. Colorado

Jalen Hurts and Alabama are running away from the field.
(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

Of course, Alabama is No. 1. The Crimson Tide are the only unbeaten Power 5 team (Western Michigan is the only other undefeated team). Alabama has looked the part of a champion and is almost assured a spot in the Playoff when the final rankings come out.

Here's where things get hairy. Ohio State comes in at No. 2 leading the one-loss teams. It appears the eye-test and the talented roster have given the Buckeyes the edge. No problem with them here, but what will happen to them if they don't even win their division in the Big Ten?

At No. 3 is Michigan with Clemson at No. 4. These two are interchangeable for me, but it's hard for me to see what Michigan did to deserve to remain ranked third this week after a loss in which it scored 13 points and had just 200 yards of total offense. In the end, Michigan and Ohio State will play each other in two weekends, so that will sort itself out.

It's pretty clear that if any of these teams in the Top 8 win out - that includes No. 8 Penn State and No. 7 Wisconsin - there's a great chance with a conference championship that they have a strong argument to be in the Playoff.

Tenth-ranked Colorado could make a big move as well. The Buffs final two games are at home against No. 22 Washington State and No. 12 Utah. If they win both, they will be in the Pac-12 title game likely against No. 6 Washington. Three wins against ranked opponents at the end of the season could give Colorado a jolt in the rankings.

Other thoughts:

• Undefeated Western Michigan is ranked 21st and behind one-loss Boise State, which is 20th. This is important because the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion earns an automatic bid to the New Year's Six Bowls. Boise State still needs to help to become the Mountain West champion, so it may not matter much anyway.
• West Virginia, at 8-1, sits behind a lot of two-loss teams. Some of those I can't really argue. But for the Mountaineers to be behind 7-3 USC is atrocious.
• The Big 12 altogether is interesting. Oklahoma is the highest-ranked team, but has two losses to Ohio State and Houston. Oklahoma State gave West Virginia its lone loss, but the Cowboys are 8-2 with a loss to declining Baylor and Central Michigan. OU plays both WVU and OSU in the coming weeks. Time will tell what the committee thinks of the Big 12 champion.
• SEC and Pac-12 each have six teams in the Top 25; Big Ten has five, including four of the top eight; ACC and Big 12 have three apiece. Those are pivotal for teams jockeying for position late in the season, as the committee will weigh Top 25 wins.

CFB Playoff and New Year's Six Bowl Projections (Based on current rankings)

• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Clemson
• PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan
• Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 8 Penn State
• Goodyear Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 21 Western Michigan
• Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 6 Washington vs. No. 7 Wisconsin
• Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 15 Auburn

-BtW

Rapid Reax: CFB Playoff Rankings - Week 5

Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers top the College Football
Playoff Rankings for the fifth straight week.
(Photo courtesy The AP)

Not much changed at the top, as all the schools in the top five won over the weekend. Clemson holds onto the No. 1 spot for the fifth straight week. The Tigers have been at the top for all of the weekly rankings this season. Alabama remained No. 2 with Oklahoma and Iowa staying put at 3 and 4.

However, I'm surprised the Committee continues to value Alabama's schedule more than Oklahoma's. In this week's rankings, the Tide have wins over No. 21 LSU and No. 25 Tennessee. The Sooners have wins against No. 11 TCU, No. 12 Baylor, No. 17 Oklahoma State and No. 25 Tennessee.

I realize Oklahoma's loss is bad - very, very bad - and Alabama's loss is to the team currently ranked No. 13. But the Committee has said over and over that they value a team's wins more than the losses. If true, Oklahoma has three wins better than any of Alabama's and two more than the Tide over currently ranked teams. Plus, in the spirit of comparing games against common opponents, Oklahoma has a seven-point road win at Tennessee, while Alabama has a five-point home win over the Vols.

In my non-expert opinion, Oklahoma has looked much better than Alabama and has better wins more recently to back it up, which includes a 35-point beatdown over rival Oklahoma State (previously ranked No. 11) on the road. I guess Alabama's reputation weighs heavier than actual metrics and resumes.

Beyond the Top 4, Michigan State is fifth, which is irrelevant at this point because the Spartans and Hawkeyes battle for the Big Ten Championship this weekend with the winner all but certain to be in the final Top 4. Whether the winner jumps to the No. 3 spot or higher will be worth keeping an eye on Sunday when the final rankings are released.

Ohio State is sixth, followed by Stanford, Notre Dame, Florida State and North Carolina rounding out the Top 10. Speculation has run rampant as to what the Committee would do with the Tar Heels should they beat No. 1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game this weekend. The Heels' schedule is one of the weakest in the country, but UNC would have one of the longest win streaks to that point and have arguably the best win of the season - over the top-ranked Tigers.

I'd hate to be a Committee member if that happened. You'd be arguing potential ACC Champ UNC vs. one-loss non-champ Ohio State vs. potential Pac-12 Champ but two-loss Stanford vs. one-loss non-champ Clemson (who the Committee had No. 1 in every poll). You could even throw the Big Ten title game loser - two-loss Michigan State, who beat OSU, or one-loss Iowa - into the debate as well. The guess here is Stanford would get the boost by being a conference champion, but honestly, that's throwing a dart at the wall.

One week left before the final poll. Remember, the final rankings will be released at Noon ET this Sunday.

Here's the CFB Playoff Top 10
1) Clemson
2) Alabama
3) Oklahoma
4) Iowa
5) Michigan State
6) Ohio State
7) Stanford
8) Notre Dame
9) Florida State
10) North Carolina

-BtW

Rapid Reax: CFB Playoff Rankings - Week 4

Clemson remained at the top of the College Football Playoff Rankings
for the fourth straight week. (Photo courtesy The AP)

The College Football Playoff Committee released its weekly rankings and following three undefeated teams falling, there has been some shakeup near the top. Clemson and Alabama remained locked in at the top two spots.

Then, there were some intriguing moves. Oklahoma jumped to No. 3 and Iowa moved into the final Playoff spot, bumping Notre Dame. But the Irish fall didn't end there. Michigan State is No. 5 ahead of Notre Dame, meaning the Committee dropped Notre Dame from fourth to sixth. The Irish struggled in a pseudo-home game against lowly Boston College.

I'm honestly shocked Oklahoma made that big a jump. The assumption all along has been that the Committee disrespects the Big 12. OU defeated TCU, who dropped like a rock after a loss to Oklahoma State and a win against Kansas. The Sooners beating the Frogs by one wasn't overly impressive, but it did give Oklahoma another win over a Top 20 team.

Iowa finally made it into the Top 4. After all, the Hawkeyes are the only other unbeaten team beside Clemson. It seems clear that if Michigan State defeats Penn State this week, the winner of the Iowa-Michigan State Big Ten Championship Game will be in the Playoff. With OU at No. 3 and playing No. 11 Oklahoma State on the road, it's unlikely that the Sooners would fall past No. 4 (if Big Ten winner jumps them in final rankings).

That leaves us to discuss Notre Dame. The Irish go to No. 9 Stanford this week and could add a significant win to their résumé. Would it be enough to overtake the final spot from a one-loss Big 12 champion Oklahoma? Or is the Committee sending a message to the Irish that they need to join a conference?

Rounding out the Top 10 are Baylor, Ohio State, Stanford and Michigan. The winner of Michigan-Ohio State obviously has a chance to move up, but would need Michigan State to lose to Penn State to earn a berth in the Big Ten title game. Baylor is lurking and is the only Big 12 team in the running which is playing on the final weekend (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU are all off Dec. 5).

Stanford has a very interesting argument, as the Cardinal could knock off a team ahead of them (Notre Dame) and then defeat a potential Top 25 team in the Pac-12 title game (currently ranked No. 22 UCLA or unranked USC). Stanford likely needs help, though, with two losses already on its résumé.

Only two weeks left to decide the 2015 Playoff bracket. Who do you think gets in?

Here's the complete Top 10
1) Clemson
2) Alabama
3) Oklahoma
4) Iowa
5) Michigan State
6) Notre Dame
7) Baylor
8) Ohio State
9) Stanford
10) Michigan

-BtW